August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[the_convergence_zone]

This Euro run is looking interesting, it has the remnants of Hilary offshore of San Francisco. 

[TT-SEA]

Approaching western OR on Tuesday morning.

[Snownerd3000]

 

[YahRaEl]

From The Weather Channel Android App: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/new-ts-hilarys-remnants-could-impact-southern-california?pl=pl-the-latest

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Approaching western OR on Tuesday morning.

And then the remnant low gets pulled westward by the offshore ridge LOL. At least western WA would get some clouds in that scenario but I find it hard to believe there would be much rain. 

[Front Ranger]

I have a feeling models will flail wildly with this pattern evolution, given this scenario doesn't happen often.

It's very difficult for tropical systems to hold together long once they reach the relatively cool waters off Baja.

[Phishy Wx]

only a matter of time before southern Cal gets another Hurricane.  this year with above average SSTs in the vicinity might be the year

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

1951… a repeat would end my March snow jinx in a big way.

http://coastdaylight.com/ferndalesnow51.html

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

1951… a repeat would end my March snow jinx in a big way.

http://coastdaylight.com/ferndalesnow51.html

The analog would be for the winter of 1951-52.

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

09 seems more likely in our 'modern' climate, IMO

[Phishy Wx]

already 91,  thinking we may best yesterday's 100 IMBY

[Phishy Wx]

The subsequent winters were as different as could be. The negative PDO completely dominated the fading El Niño in 51-52!

 

This year does not seem like a 'fading' El Nino, I'm siding with the '09 dud on this one

[Phil]

 

47 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Crazy that CA is probably going to see this after the winter they just saw.

Considering the nature of this ENSO event it actually doesn’t seem too surprising IMO? Very east based niños (esp ones that emerge from a niño costero event) have a long history of craziness in CA.

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

only a matter of time before southern Cal gets another Hurricane.  this year with above average SSTs in the vicinity might be the year

Those waters are waaaay too cold to support a warm core/tropical system. Would likely be extratropical by the time it reaches CA.

For comparison, the waters off the CA coast right now are colder than the waters in the Gulf/SW-Atlantic in *January*.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Go King EURO!!!

[TT-SEA]

Already 90 degrees just before noon here on the top of a mountain.   Not sure what mountain exactly.    

[Phil]

Easy to lose context looking at colorful SSTA maps. Those waters off CA are downright frigid. Colder than anywhere else at that latitude.

Will advect plenty of moisture into CA but I’d be shocked if it has any tropical characteristics left by the time it gets there.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already 90 degrees just before noon here on the top of a mountain.   Not sure what mountain exactly.    

Took until noon? Yeah, definitely mountain weather.  

[BLI snowman]

Ignacio in 1997(another Nino!) eventually did something similar, although it was never more than a puny and scrawny little storm. Gave OR and SW WA some pretty decent rain (0.75" or so) and for anyone wondering it is still the wettest tropical system on record for the PNW.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Ignacio_(1997)

[Phil]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Ignacio in 1997(another Nino!) eventually did something similar, although it was never more than a puny and scrawny little storm. Gave OR and SW WA some pretty decent rain (0.75" or so) and for anyone wondering it is still the wettest tropical system on record for the PNW.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Ignacio_(1997)

Not liking that 1997/98 analog. But it’s the best modern era fit.

Coast to coast torch winter does seem likely given the ENSO structure. At least thru Dec/Jan.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Took until noon? Yeah, definitely mountain weather.  

The snow that fell last night is starting to melt now.    If we are lucky it will be gone by evening.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

only a matter of time before southern Cal gets another Hurricane.  this year with above average SSTs in the vicinity might be the year

Hilary will probably need to intensify to a category 4/5 for that to happen. But if PDX can reach 116 then anything is possible.

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already 90 degrees just before noon here on the top of a mountain.   Not sure what mountain exactly.    

Haha. Dude. Let it go. 

[Snownerd3000]

28 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

The subsequent winters were as different as could be. The negative PDO completely dominated the fading El Niño in 51-52!

 

This year does not seem like a 'fading' El Nino, I'm siding with the '09 dud on this one

Ya I'd agree with that.

[ShawniganLake]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dry. Any rain towards the end of the euro?

[Skagit Weather]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Currently the Euro is predicting about 1.5" to fall in San Francisco. The wettest August on record was in 1976 when 0.8" fell. The city has only picked up more than 0.2" in August ten times since 1850 so this would blow every other August out of the water if this ended up happening. The last time more than 0.1" fell there in August was in the 1997 year that has been brought up a couple times.

I would love to shift this map about a thousand miles north though...

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Dry. Any rain towards the end of the euro?

Total rain for entire run.

[Front Ranger]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not liking that 1997/98 analog. But it’s the best modern era fit.

Coast to coast torch winter does seem likely given the ENSO structure. At least thru Dec/Jan.

2019-20 was the last (sorta) coast to coast torch winter.

[Dave]

90 here with hardly any sunshine at the surface. Way too smoky. It was looking ok last night, but the smoke has returned this morning.

[Dave]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The analog would be for the winter of 1951-52.

It was decently snowy in Eugene that winter. A little over 8 inches.

[May Grey]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would get soaked I'd this verifies!

[NWbyNW]

12 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s been down for awhile.  I’m sure admin knows about it.  It’ll probably be fixed at some point

Thank you for answering!  Hope you have a great day and stay somewhat cool in the heat.

Lytton I believe hit a record high yesterday on a BC side-note. What's left of Lytton...  

[the_convergence_zone]

The EPS PWAT anomaly shows who is most likely to get rainfall out of this… 

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The snow that fell last night is starting to melt now.    If we are lucky it will be gone by evening.  

How sad  

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

@Front Ranger

What number did the fabled year of 2015 hit? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And there's another one.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

What number did the fabled year of 2015 hit? 

 

[NWbyNW]

The temps have been the same the last few days at the same time.  This is essentially the same temp as Tuesday and Monday the day before.  Yesterday we topped out at 87F.  Today is possibly a degree cooler. Overnight temp last night was 60F.

[Deweydog]

2015 WAS WARMER IN OLYMPIA.