Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 The control on yesterdays GEFS looks pretty fun in late December. 7 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The control on yesterdays GEFS looks pretty fun in late December. Jet suppression! 00z ECMWF in 55 minutes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Could be a December to remember! 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Just for fun. 00z GFS Day 10-16 Rainfall, Snowfall totals 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Down to 29F. 1 3 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Could be a December to remember! There are some really good Nino Decembers in the past. 1968 and 1972. Even 2009 had near top tier cold, 1965 had a white Christmas in some places, and 1884 was the all time greatest December. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 7 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 32.7 with fog trying to form now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 It's quite impressive how perfectly this coming inversion episode evolves. Just the right surface pressure gradients for days to keep most places cold. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: It's quite impressive how perfectly this coming inversion episode evolves. Just the right surface pressure gradients for days to keep most places cold. Yeah I’m not overly excited about some chilly days in late November, but it will be nice, I agree. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 31! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Apart from dangerous weather, inversions are the worst. Who cares about fake cold? If it's not snowing or stormy, at least be sunny. We live in a beautiful part of the world, I'd like to see it instead of fog. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 The top 5 analogs from day on tonight's GFS are from La Nina years. Weird! 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah I’m not overly excited about some chilly days in late November, but it will be nice, I agree. This is getting the cold season off to a good start stat wise at least. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 6 That low near Hawaii is becoming more of a thing all the time. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Apart from dangerous weather, inversions are the worst. Who cares about fake cold? If it's not snowing or stormy, at least be sunny. We live in a beautiful part of the world, I'd like to see it instead of fog. Easy for you to say. I will take cold in any way shape or form. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Phil said: It can. But doesn’t guarantee it, will need both the Pacific/PNA and NATL/NAO working constructively to drive an arctic airmass into W-Canada this year. Easier to stumble into such a pattern under a -ENSO LP like the last three years. Now the El Niño base state is so entrenched it’ll probably need to be a hail mary of sorts. Thanks Phil. The -NOA clearly worked out in 1968/69. But there was also an unusually early SSW event that winter, which as you said, likely was a significant aid in driving the -PNA pattern. The thing about the 1968/69 winter that I find so interesting is just how long the patten was locked in. The initial blast of arctic air came at the end of December followed by a brief warmup in early January. But by mid January, the region was hit with reload after reload of arctic air. Looking at the 500mb reanalysis, it looked like one of the most stable La Niña patterns I've ever seen. That -PNA/-NAO was almost a permanent feature for most of January that year and there was very little shift in the trajectory of the blocking pattern as the ridge bridge remained in place with the polar low settled in over the PNW. It was one of the longest arctic outbreaks in the region. I'm just curious if you have any idea what caused the pattern to lock in for so long? Sure would be epic to see a repeat but unforunately, I'm not expecting to see one anytime soon. The closest we have come were those epic GFS runs back in January 2020. They ended up being an extreme outlier that did not verify, but for nearly a week, they were constantly showing a 1969 pattern. I remember that model ride just hoping the GFS would be right for once and of course it was out to lunch. Darn. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Phil said: I wouldn’t expect much (if any) top-tier cold on our side of the pole this winter anyway. But what constitutes a torch in central Canada is significant colder than average for a majority of the CONUS. Maybe not in Fargo ND, but most other places. True, but the mechanisms that drive central Canadian torching are often the same kind of zonal/Pac Jet fueled patterns that won't be delivering much arctic air south of the border anyways. Obviously the southern tier can still clean up in the absolute right circumstances, like January-February 2010. Edited November 24, 2023 by BLI snowman 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Down to 31F so we will have ourselves a back to back night and early morning with freezes. Freeze #7 and 8. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 30.6 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 30.2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Already down to 29.8 tonight. 2 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: True, but the mechanisms that drive central Canadian torching are often the same kind of zonal/Pac Jet fueled patterns that won't be delivering much arctic air south of the border anyways. Obviously the southern tier can still clean up in the absolute right circumstances, like January-February 2010. I have yet to see any signs of a strong PJ this winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 29.7 brrr 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 00z GEFS, EPS - Portland. 850mb Temps, Precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 00z GEFS, EPS - Seattle. 850mb Temps, Precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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