DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for December 22.

1957: Balmy weather prevails with highs in the mid-50s. Muskegon sets a record high of 55 degrees.

2000: A long siege of arctic air and lake effect snow continues across Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Lansing is only 9 degrees with lake-effect snow showers swirling. It will be the coldest December of the 20th century at Lansing.

 2013, an ice storm impacted locations from the northern Detroit suburbs to the Saginaw area as significant moisture became entrained along a frontal boundary. Widespread ice accretions of 0.5 to 0.75 inches were reported and numerous trees and power lines were downed. The ice storm even prompted Shiawassee County to declare a state of emergency due to unsafe traveling conditions. Further south, the precipitation fell as heavy rain while Bay, Midland, and Huron counties saw 2 to 4 inches of snow.

1872, the temperature dropped to -24 degrees overnight in Detroit. This temperature reading is unofficially the lowest temperature ever recorded in the city of Detroit.

Around the USA

1989  The most significant cold spell of the century for the Deep South occurred from the 22 to the 26. New Orleans experienced 64 consecutive hours at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit and a total of 81 out of 82 hours below freezing. A total of 15 hours was below 15 degrees with the lowest reading of 11 degrees on the morning of the 23rd. A low temperature of 8 degrees was recorded at Baton Rouge. Snow and sleet paralyzed transportation systems and as much as two to four inches of snow accumulated in Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes. Snow and ice covered the ground in New Orleans. The most significant impact was the breaking of water pipes in homes and businesses. Over 100 fires resulted in the New Orleans area within 24 hours due to a loss of water pressure and improperly utilized heating sources. Ice formed over shallow lakes and waterways where commercial fishing took heavy losses. Five weather-related deaths occurred in the service area during this rare Arctic outbreak. Between December 22 and December 24, 1989, deepening low pressure pulled a frigid arctic air mass into the southeastern United States. This sequence of events produced a historic snowstorm and a rare white Christmas across the region. At Charleston, South Carolina, the storm deposited 8 inches of snow – the greatest snowfall in modern history. At Savannah, Georgia, the storm’s total accumulation of 3.6 inches tied for the greatest snowfall in modern history. 

2002  Heavy rains prompted flooding in the mountain city of Teresopolis, located about 90 km north of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. A mudslide was responsible for 9 deaths and 50 injuries.2004: Tremendous snows occurred in the Ohio Valley. The following cities set new records for their most significant snowstorm ever: Evansville, Indiana 22.3 inches, Dayton, Ohio 16.4 inches, and Paducah, Kentucky 14.2 inches. Other big snowfall totals were 31 inches at Liberty, Indiana, 28 inches at Buena Vista, Indiana, 24 inches at Greenville, Ohio, and 23 inches at Mansfield, Ohio. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Paducah, Kentucky.

 

 

[chescowxman]

A mostly cloudy but dry day today with temps struggling to get much above the mid 30's in many spots across the county. Temperatures tonight will again drop below freezing....but they looks to be the last below freezing temperatures for almost a week. The upcoming week looks mild but nowhere near record warm levels we could see highs in the low 50 from Christmas Day through Wednesday. A couple showers are possible Christmas Eve morning with a greater rain event likely by Tuesday into Wednesday. Much colder weather looks to arrive in time for New Years Eve.

Records for today: High 64.7 (2013) / Low -1 (1960) / Rain 1.63" (1983) / Snow 5.8" (1908)

[chescowxman]

A mostly cloudy but dry day today with temps struggling to get much above the mid 30's in many spots across the county. Temperatures tonight will again drop below freezing....but they looks to be the last below freezing temperatures for almost a week. The upcoming week looks mild but nowhere near record warm levels we could see highs in the low 50 from Christmas Day through Wednesday. A couple showers are possible Christmas Eve morning with a greater rain event likely by Tuesday into Wednesday. Much colder weather looks to arrive in time for New Years Eve.

Records for today: High 64.7 (2013) / Low -1 (1960) / Rain 1.63" (1983) / Snow 5.8" (1908)

[Niko]

This December might actually end up being a snowless month for my area and along w that, way AN temps. Nino doing its thing I guess.

[Niko]

On 12/20/2023 at 9:12 AM, jaster220 said:

Nice to get one solid winter's day yesterday with snow covered ground and temps solidly below freezing, at least in the Northland where I was prepping the new digs. Couple pics to give an idea what the new region is like.

 

Great pics amigo. I almost forgot what snow looks like. Very excited about your new adventure. Keep us all posted.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Just a life saving rain today!!! .92  way more than forecast and models said. And ground not frozen  so ground  is primed for what comes sun to Wednesday.   Hopefully  some runoff developes. Pond is lowest  we have seen. Large fish have died but minnows still alive. Amazing wet end to 2023. 1.63 so far (above avg!) in Dec. Hopefully  we push  4 inches in Dec!! Fyi this electronic  gauge is 4 to 6% to high I dont use it for official  measurements. 

[Hawkeye]

The rain was pretty light today, but it really lingered.  I finished with a decent 0.32".  That's at the high end of the model range.

[CentralNebWeather]

What a difference a year makes in Central Nebraska on December 22, 2022, to today. 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS agreeing with NAM now on the whole ice storm thing

[jaster220]

15 hours ago, Niko said:

This December might actually end up being a snowless month for my area and along w that, way AN temps. Nino doing its thing I guess.

Monday spared me that fate. Had a little here in Canton, and from Brighton up towards Flint there was easy 2-3"

[westMJim]

We are in the biggest snowfall droughts in Grand Rapids history. So far this December Grand Rapids has only had 1.3” of snowfall if that holds until the end of the month this will be the 2^nd lowest snowfall totals for any December at Grand Rapids and even worse is that for the season Grand Rapids is at just 3.2” of snowfall and if that holds for the rest of December that will be the lowest for any start of the winter season at Grand Rapids. The lowest seasonal snowfall total at Grand Rapids is a reported 20” in winter of 1905/06 with 30” the 2^nd lowest total and this winter is less than both of those winter at this time.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 42/38 there was 0.26” of rainfall. Once again there was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 34/23 the record high of 60 was set in 2015 and the record low of -11 was set in 1989. The wettest was in 1932 with 1.02” of rainfall. Last year was the snowiest with a H/L of 15/5 and 7.5” of snow fall. The most on the ground was 19” in 1951.

 

[westMJim]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Monday spared me that fate. Had a little here in Canton, and from Brighton up towards Flint there was easy 2-3"

The December snowfall total at Detroit of 0.1wouls be the 2nd lowest for any December if it holds for the rest of the month. The December total of 1.7" at Flint would be their 5th lowest and at Saginaw their December total of 2" would be there 7th. Up north at Houghton Lake the December total so far of 4.4" would be their 10th lowest and at Alpena with 3.8" that would be their 5th lowest. Chances of snowfall are higher to the north than to the south the rest of December. If there is little or no snowfall by the end of the month I will update this.

Edited December 23, 2023 by westMJim
update

[Clinton]

Ya I think it's been warm this December and here is a look at the last 18 Decembers.

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Ya I think it's been warm this December and here is a look at the last 18 Decembers.

Just incredible  wild swings in middle of usa.  December  has become more like November  or march for our snow business.

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Just incredible  wild swings in middle of usa.  December  has become more like November  or march for our snow business.

My current temperature of 54 which is likely to be the low for today is also the average high temp for March 8th. 

[jaster220]

23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Ya I think it's been warm this December and here is a look at the last 18 Decembers.

Strange. Mby records of Dec 2019 show very few cold days in Marshall with (3) notably hot days. You would not get that impression looking at their map for that year. Not like Marshall is in some micro-climate either. 

[Tom]

Stark differences in just one year...I remember last years saving grace for a White Christmas and flew back to Chi from PHX just in the nick of time...

 

[Tom]

@Black Hole @OKwx2k4...could there be a NYE and/or Day wintry system brewing your way???  There is a system showing up and fits the pattern to race over the 4 corners on NYE and then possibly bring some white gold down your way.  The 0z Euro Op is flashing the potential.   I will add, that the period between Jan 3rd - 6th is looking like the best set up of the season for a real Winter storm down your way.  Plenty cold will infiltrate the pattern by then.

[Hawkeye]

It is looking very boring across the northern US for quite a while after this system leaves.

[chescowxman]

Another cloudy but milder day with temps rising to near normal levels for late December. A slight chance of showers overnight tonight otherwise a nice warming trend that will last through Thursday before a return to near normal temps to close out 2023. Next rain chance is Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

Records for today: High 65.3 (2015) / Low 0 (1960) / Rain 1.41" (1907) / Snow 6.2" (1963)

[westMJim]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Strange. Mby records of Dec 2019 show very few cold days in Marshall with (3) notably hot days. You would not get that impression looking at their map for that year. Not like Marshall is in some micro-climate either. 

In looking at the records for Dec 2019 all of lower Michigan was warmer than average that month. It could be that the map is of November of 2019 that was colder than average in lower Michigan.

[chescowxman]

Looking ahead it appears likely that this December will finish as the 4th warmest final month of the year since records began in 1894. See the Top 20 warmest and coldest Decembers below. Of note, in our current warm cycle the top 3 warm December's have all occurred just since 2006!! So does a warm December correlate to a less snowy upcoming winter season? The answer is overall yes. Only 4 of the top 20 warmest December's featured above normal snow seasons (avg. snow 36"). While 10 of the top 20 coldest Decembers featured above normal snow for the upcoming season.

[Bryan1117]

19 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Just a life saving rain today!!! .92  way more than forecast and models said. And ground not frozen  so ground  is primed for what comes sun to Wednesday.   Hopefully  some runoff developes. Pond is lowest  we have seen. Large fish have died but minnows still alive. Amazing wet end to 2023. 1.63 so far (above avg!) in Dec. Hopefully  we push  4 inches in Dec!! Fyi this electronic  gauge is 4 to 6% to high I dont use it for official  measurements. 

 

 

Congrats on the moisture OttumwaSnomow, hopefully the next system delivers for us both… even it’s just plain rain.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, westMJim said:

In looking at the records for Dec 2019 all of lower Michigan was warmer than average that month. It could be that the map is of November of 2019 that was colder than average in lower Michigan.

I did think perhaps the map was not correct. Thx for confirming it

[OKwx2k4]

16 hours ago, Tom said:

@Black Hole @OKwx2k4...could there be a NYE and/or Day wintry system brewing your way???  There is a system showing up and fits the pattern to race over the 4 corners on NYE and then possibly bring some white gold down your way.  The 0z Euro Op is flashing the potential.   I will add, that the period between Jan 3rd - 6th is looking like the best set up of the season for a real Winter storm down your way.  Plenty cold will infiltrate the pattern by then.

I've thought about this as the start of my winter since a couple months ago so it fits, but will see how it all shakes out.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 46/40 that low of 40 is the 4^th warmest minimum for any December 23^rd at GR. There was 0.18” of rain fall. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 34/23 the record high of 59 was set in 2015 and the record low of -9 was set in 1944. The wettest was 1.79” in 1979. Last year had the most snowfall of 10.5” with a H/L of 17/6 there was 14” of snow on the ground the most snow on the ground was in 1951 with 19”

It looks like after a very warm start to the week there is a chance of temperatures dropping down to near average and with that drop there is a chance of some lake effect. At this time it don't look to be all that much by Michigan standards. By mid week Grand Rapids will be well over 20" bellow average for the season this year it now looks like it might be hard to reach even 50" for the season

[westMJim]

Some weather history for December 24th in southern Lower Michigan.

1993: A Christmas Eve snowstorm drops from 3 to 8 inches of snow across Lower Michigan and ushers in several weeks of severe winter weather.

2017, a storm strengthened and pulled in cold air as it moved from west to east across the area. Snow totals ranged from 2-4″ west of US-23 to 4-7″ to the east. Peak measurements of 6.1″ and 6.8″ were made in Macomb County.

1983, was a very cold day across Southeast Michigan. Detroit only had a high temperature of 3 degrees above zero, and the low was 9 degrees below zero. Flint and Saginaw were not much warmer with respective highs of 6 and 7 degrees, and lows of 5 below and 3 below zero. December 1983 was the 5th coldest December for Detroit and Flint, and it was the 3rd coldest December for Saginaw.

[jaster220]

A year ago today, my 2" of fresh snow was whipped into nice little drifts that made it look (in places at least) like a much bigger storm.

[Tom]

I’ve never experienced Dense Fog out here for as long as I’ve been coming out here…

 

 

 

[chescowxman]

Merry Christmas Eve to all!! We picked up 0.05" of rain early this AM but with temps well above freezing no issues. Christmas Day looks great for travel with temps well into the 40's across the county and partly sunny skies. No freezing temps at all across the area until at the earliest Friday AM. Rain moves in late on Tuesday evening and lasts into Wednesday night. We then have a change in the pattern to much chillier air which looks to last right into the first part of the New Year. There will also be some opportunities for wintry weather as we head toward the 1st weekend of 2024.

Records for Christmas Eve: High 68.5 (2015) / Low 2 below zero (1980) / Rain 1.63" (1986) / Snow 20.0" (1966) which was the snowstorm with frequent thunder and lightning accompanying the heavy snow.

[chescowxman]

Below are the top 15 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combos since 1894....of note the top 4 have all occurred since 1980. Including the all-time 3rd coldest just last Christmas.

[Timmy Supercell]

Warm Christmas coming.. just don't get confused and start barbecuing franks on the big day. 

Some of this will come with rain though!

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, chescowxman said:

Below are the top 15 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combos since 1894....of note the top 4 have all occurred since 1980. Including the all-time 3rd coldest just last Christmas.

I knew 2022 would be somewhere up there! If the peak of that cold had landed on xmas, I do think it would make #1 in some cities.

[Minny_Weather]

Lubbock was colder than MSP today.

[MNTonka]

The LOW temp for MSP was 45, which is 1 degree shy of the previous record HIGH temp for the day (46). Got up to 55 this afternoon. Crazy! 

[westMJim]

Merry Christmas!!! The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 51/43 there was no rain/snow. For December Grand Rapids has a total of just 1.3” of snowfall that is -14.2” below average for this date. For the season so far just 3.2” has fallen and that is now -19.7 below average.  Yesterdays low of 43 at Grand Rapids and Lansing the 45 at Holland and the 46 at Muskegon were all the 2^nd warmest minimums for December 24^th For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 34/23 the record high of 65 was set in 1982 and the record low of -3 was set in 1983 the wettest was 1.01” in thunderstorms in 1982. The most snow fall of 7.0” fell in 2017 the most on the ground was 22” in 1951 Last year the H/L was 19/17 there was 2.7” of snowfall and there was 17” on the ground at Grand Rapids.

This has been a very warm December so far with a mean of 37.6 at Grand Rapids for a departure of +6.4. At Lansing the mean of 37.4 is a departure of +7.0 and at Muskegon the mean there of 40.5 is a departure of +7.9. This December is on track to be one of the warmest and least snowy at Grand Rapids. Lansing is also on track for one of the warmest and at Muskegon they very well could see their warmest of record. 

[jaster220]

Merry Christmas everyone!!! I hope your day is bright and full of good cheer! 

[chescowxman]

Merry Christmas!! Today looks to be the last dry day for a couple days. Steadiest rain looks to develop from west to east across the County on Tuesday evening. A good chance at 0.5 to 1" of rain before ending late Wednesday night. Temp well into the 40's to near 50 through Thursday before a change to colder by Friday.

Records for Christmas Day: High 67 (1964) / Low minus 6 (1980) / Rain 1.93" (2002) / Snow 13.0" (1909)

[james1976]

GFS with zero precip for the TC over the next 16 days after this current system. Currently 53°

[gosaints]

There was exactly zero ice on the Mississippi backwaters in LA Crosse this morning.  This is officially in the absurd category.