December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

GEPS was quite good! Way better than last run. End is similar to GFS op end…

Nice improvement for sure.  Love all of those bright colors north of 60N.

[SpaceRace22]

The 00z GEFS are looking good. Virtually every member supports at least some amount of lowland snow in most areas north of EUG by Jan 10th, and a handful of members continue to show massive, region wide dumpings. I'm excited to see what hr 300+ looks like with these. 

[snow_wizard]

We also have a nice MJO wave in play that adds more potential to this mix.  So far it's verifying stronger than modeled.  If that continues it could add more fuel to the fire.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We also have a nice MJO wave in play that adds more potential to this mix.  So far it's verifying stronger than modeled.  If that continues it could add more fuel to the fire.

I think we scared Phil away. I’m sure he would have something to say

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1  @Phil how's your back doing?

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

SEA obliterated their record high for the day with a ridiculous 63.  That beats the old record by a whopping 9 degrees.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think we scared Phil away. I’m sure he would have something to say

He’s busy thinking of new acronyms and once he has enough of them will resume posting.

[SpaceRace22]

Anyone know what the hell the Spire is? Because this looks like it's about to get real spicy after hr 240:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Rubus Leucodermis]

What’s up with the sensor at McMinnville? It’s been very erratic for the last 30 hours or so. I don’t think that 70-burger is genuine.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KMMV&hours=72

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

SEA obliterated their record high for the day with a ridiculous 63.  That beats the old record by a whopping 9 degrees.

Tomorrow’s record is 56, might score another one at midnight since it is currently 57. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Anyone know what the hell the Spire is? Because this looks like it's about to get real spicy after hr 240:

 

I'll have to look into this.  Never seen it.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Anyone know what the hell the Spire is? Because this looks like it's about to get real spicy after hr 240:

 

probably AI!

[Gradient Keeper]

52 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

This is a new one. Ridge circle around Canada.

When we see this...

30 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

GEPS was quite good! Way better than last run. End is similar to GFS op end…

definitely this...

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the Nino is going to take a big hit with a big trade wind burst coming up.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

This...

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We also have a nice MJO wave in play that adds more potential to this mix.  So far it's verifying stronger than modeled.  If that continues it could add more fuel to the fire.

and this.... It's hard to not see the potential ahead.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What’s up with the sensor at McMinnville? It’s been very erratic for the last 30 hours or so. I don’t think that 70-burger is genuine.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KMMV&hours=72

It’s broken?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[snow_wizard]

I'll bet SPIRE is the new AI model being tested by ECMWF.

[SpaceRace22]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

probably AI!

Looked into it more and it appears you are correct. Their data is powered by their own fleet of microsatellites, so it's possible they have more input data to work with than the NWS models too.

I'll be curious to see some hard data come out in the future about their accuracy. The early data is suggesting that Google's AI model is significantly more accurate than any deterministic model within ~5 days, so there's probably a decent chance that Spire's product might not be total garbage either.

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh great, you mean to tell me AI is going to save our Winter? .... I dunno about this unless we see 40" of snow in January. Maybe then I'll be more open to AI.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Weiner Warrior]

Here is comes. Get ready 

[Phishy Wx]

33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

probably AI!

Tim developed it

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Moses Lake. Day 8+ Cold camp -6c to -11c members increasing. Still a cluster of warm members though. The surface temps also reflect the potential backdoor cold too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Slushy Inch]

Run to run 

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro definitely moving a few steps in the right direction and not too far away from being quite good.

 

[Kolk1604]

Snow for southern Washington/norther Oregon at hour 174 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF gets pretty chilly.  The Pacific surface high joins up with the cold surface high over Canada.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[SnarkyGoblin]

30 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Looked into it more and it appears you are correct. Their data is powered by their own fleet of microsatellites, so it's possible they have more input data to work with than the NWS models too.

I'll be curious to see some hard data come out in the future about their accuracy. The early data is suggesting that Google's AI model is significantly more accurate than any deterministic model within ~5 days, so there's probably a decent chance that Spire's product might not be total garbage either.

So I found the name of the model (GraphCast) but cannot find current predictions. Pretty significant if it got published in Science.

Does one exist?  Feels like having it readily available could be life saving.

[snow_wizard]

Just a couple of tweaks away from something quite good on tonight's model runs.

[SpaceRace22]

11 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

So I found the name of the model (GraphCast) but cannot find current predictions. Pretty significant if it got published in Science.

Does one exist?  Feels like having it readily available could be life saving.

Unfortunately it's not public or even available for purchase. The default weather app on any Android phone Google Pixel 8 & Google Pixel 8 Pro phones uses GraphCast as one of the weighted sources though, so you can still see point forecasts from it, sort of.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

I kind of want to wait up for the EPS now....

[snow_wizard]

This is a link to the GraphCast, but I think it's the same as the Spire on Weatherbell.  It says this is a google/ ECMWF collaboration on this site.

ECMWF | Charts