December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The big bust in 1983 was the White Christmas forecast bust.  I'm still bitter about it 40 years later.

I was in high school and living in Anacortes. The cold air was in place, a wet system was coming in.  The Seattle P-I has a big headline about having a white Christmas.  The Seahawks won a playoff game that day, Winter Storm Warnings were issued for 6 to 8 inches of snow by Christmas morning.  All was right with the world.

Everyone has gone to bed and I heard a pitter patter.  I was old enough to know it wasn't Santas reindeer.  

It was rain.  

I'm guessing the storm took a more northerly track and the low went to our North and brought warm air.

 

I vaguely remember that. I had just turned 7 a month before and remembered going to our 5 acre lot by Lake Ki that my parents had just bought and it was a winter wonderland there right before Christmas if I remember correctly… The radio was talking about a white Christmas on our short drive over. I was amped! Then it didn’t happen. 

[MossMan]

My top ranked January’s would be…

#1 1996

#2 2012

#3 2020

#4 2007

#5 Sometime between 1979-81. I don’t remember since I was so young but I remember snow up to my waist and it getting very cold. Probably better than most of the ones above but I just too young to remember much of it. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by MossMan

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW clipper mania was about to sweep through Clark County! A sneaky little continental shortwave descended on the 29th, leading to a nice inversion and daytime temps in low 30’s. Most places received between 2-3 inches despite it not looking like much to write home about at the 500mb level.  

Think I had a few inches with that one if I remember correctly. 

[FroYoBro]

ALERT ALERT. WINDSTORM AT MY LOCATION.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

ALERT ALERT. WINDSTORM AT MY LOCATION.

 

 

Not to mention a nice setup to drag cold air in.

[snow_wizard]

Improvement on the 18z GFS vs the earlier runs of the day.  Stronger connection to high latitude blocking about a week out.  Very definite trend on every run today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Probably more realistic than the 12Z Goofus.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This would be a bona fide miracle for January in this century!  Keep in mind the meteograms are notoriously warm for mins at SEA as well.

The usually more realistic 12Z Euro says not so much.

[Dave]

We're having a proper downpour right now. Not exactly exciting, but the most interesting weather we've had in the last few weeks.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Sorry but this is a bona fide non event. Just a return to seasonal temperatures and precipitation.

[snow_wizard]

Oh boy!

The numbers check out for this to be snow.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The usually more realistic 12Z Euro says not so much.

Good chance it's colder than this.  Too early to know.

[Christensen87]

Fun Druncle run! 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Sorry but this is a bona fide non event. Just a return to seasonal temperatures and precipitation.

Ok...

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Fun Druncle run! 

According to some it's a bust already though! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Ok...

At least for Seattle south

[snow_wizard]

Really nice run.  The low that brings the snow tracks into OR and pulls cold air in behind it and north of it.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

At least for Seattle south

Why?

You have absolutely no way of knowing BTW.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Really nice run.  The low that brings the snow tracks into OR and pulls cold air in behind it and north of it.

What cold air? SEA and PDX don’t even go below freezing through Jan 10

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ain't no way. The swamp is legendary even at hour 300

[snow_wizard]

One thing that is always predictable is the naysayers on here.  Even before every event that does work out.

BTW...I have not once said this thing is a lock, but we have some decent chances coming up.  I do think a pattern better than our Jan norm this century has a very chance of happening.

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Sorry but this is a bona fide non event. Just a return to seasonal temperatures and precipitation.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

What cold air? SEA and PDX don’t even go below freezing through Jan 10

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

PERFECT!

[snow_wizard]

There has been some hinting in the models this might be a fairly long duration opportunity coming up with a number of block resets that could work out for us.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing that is always predictable is the naysayers on here.  Even before every event that does work out.

BTW...I have not once said this thing is a lock, but we have some decent chances coming up.  I do think a pattern better than our Jan norm this century has a very chance of happening.

I’m not saying it won’t happen, I am just pointing out that right now it’s clown range and the GFS basically stands alone without Euro support.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wonder why the border hugger setups have been so much more common lately?

When was our last coupled Arctic airmass? Like Jan 2017? How the hell is that even possible to go that long without one?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5800ft Okanagan highlands.  Odd to have a vehicle here in late December lol

[DeepFriedEgg]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m not saying it won’t happen, I am just pointing out that right now it’s clown range and the GFS basically stands alone without Euro support.

And even the GFS at face value is seriously unimpressive (particularly south of Bellingham)

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It would seem this January is trying hard to make me regret my trip to Patagonia. It's going to be weird going from 4:30pm sunsets to 10pm sunsets yet the temperature is hardly different. Though with such marginal conditions I'm sure Victoria will find a way to get screwed even if it does turn out like what's show on the 18z GFS.

[High Desert Mat?]

18z in a nutshell. Some slightly below seasonal temps, some rain, some mountain snow, then a ridge pops up overhead to give us another fake cold inversion episode. All I have to say is time is running out. This run goes to mid January. Mhork will pull the fork out by February 10th like he does every year. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Best bet is going to be overrunning event with a just cold enough east wind and a low approaching from the south.

[SnowWillarrive]

48 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The usually more realistic 12Z Euro says not so much.

Even that’s better than the last two months. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh boy!

The numbers check out for this to be snow.

How sad for me and a few other south end folks. Lol, these setups can be depressing & frustrating at times. I am excited though about the prospects as anything can happen!  2019 made me a believer

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

This feels just like 2/2019. 

[RentonHill]

43 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

5800ft Okanagan highlands.  Odd to have a vehicle here in late December lol

You running 5 PSI??

[Phishy Wx]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

2012, 2017, 2020... makes sense that 2024 would be next.  

i'm no math magician but that pattern would lead to 2025 not 2024.  5, 3, 5

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

You running 5 PSI??

Lmao. For real!!!

[Requiem]

1 hour ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Sorry but this is a bona fide non event. Just a return to seasonal temperatures and precipitation.

[SeanNyberg]

You’ll rarely lose betting against snow in the PNW. Everyone on here is coming from the understanding that the presumption is always wet but too warm, cold but too dry, or too warm and too dry.

So it just seems odd and weird to swing in with “it’ll be a bust,” “fantasyland nonsense,” “zero chance,” etc, every time there is a slight glimmer of hope and excitement. We know this. Every single person on here knows this.

We aren’t drafting news bulletins for the NWS that’ll be released to the unwashed masses where we have to hedge every statement with “but it’s highly unlikely” so we don’t spark a run on the grocery stores.

It’s a weather forum, focused on the PNW, that one must seek out to read or join. We all know that any forecast more than a few days out is likely to change and even short range models are not perfect.

Let folks have fun. Let folks get excited. I know that in all of our social and familial bubbles we are all the weather experts who feel the need to over explain and be the voice of reason. But that’s not needed here. Not only is it not needed, it comes across as needy.

We all know the drill. The snow or wind storm will almost always bust and the long range cold snap will almost always moderate.

Now that we all agree that’s the foundation we are all working with, let’s get excited about a slight chance for a small amount of lowland snow. Lol.