December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cold Snap]

Pretty nice sunset right now.

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This feels just like 2/2019. 

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

2 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

ALERT ALERT. WINDSTORM AT MY LOCATION.

 

 

This would be the wind gusts for this storm. It doesn't look like a good windstorm for the Seattle area but good for points South of Olympia. We need to keep an eye on this storm because it's not the first time a windstorm has shown up around this time in previous runs. The winds are in knots, not mph. So 50 knots is about 60 mph. 

[Skagit Weather]

Some of the models show an intense sort of convergence zone setting up in Skagit/Whatcom/San Juan Counties in the next couple hours. It just started raining for about the first time in a week, and we'll see if it's as wet as some of the models are suggesting.

The Euro has shown it for the last couple days and the GFS just caught on. Both show 0.5-1" of precip falling by midnight. The mesoscale models are also hinting at it, although some are focused more to my west. The UKMET goes really crazy with 2-3" over my location in the next 8 hours. That would be pretty insane if that happened, but I think it's unlikely.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Pretty nice sunset right now.

 

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Sorry but this is a bona fide non event. Just a return to seasonal temperatures and precipitation.

Gonna singlehandedly neg this b!tch into existence. We are forever in your favor. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

12 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Gonna singlehandedly neg this b!tch into existence. We are forever in your favor. 

That’s what I’m here for

[Dave]

Completely clear skies with unlimited visibility. Should last for at least 30 minutes until it gets foggy. Sweet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

January has been horrendous.  2022 came in around normal here, but not long term normal.  2012 and 2013 were both fairly cold if you go back 2 more years.

2022 and 2023 were very close to the 30 year average around here, but that's 2-3F above the long term average. As I mentioned 2013 was cold down here, 2012 was not. It was slightly above average, we didn't get the real cold air that month. Though the 14-17th was still the largest single snow event I've had here and the 21" we had on the 17th hasn't been approached either. That whole thing was followed by a very narrow atmospheric river which dropped 11" of precip in 3 days here. There was major flooding in the Albany/Corvallis/Salem areas. Fairly localized, but I would say that was the last major Willamette Valley flooding event we have had. I know Mill Creek flooded hundreds of houses in Turner and SE Salem. 

https://www.statesmanjournal.com/picture-gallery/news/2019/04/10/photos-salem-flooding-2012/3418912002/

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just saw the 18z. It was pretty meh. On the other hand the middle of the month is starting to look RIPE on the GEFS. 

[MossMan]

Let’s dial up a 1996 or 2012 or 2020 or even 2007.

No 1998 or 2013…Thank you. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Let’s dial up a 1996 or 2012 or 2020 or even 2007.

No 1998 or 2013…Thank you. 

Did you get screwed in 98' too? I got the classic WV ice storm special. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

And even the GFS at face value is seriously unimpressive (particularly south of Bellingham)

Not sure why anyone would take any of the operational models at face value beyond about 5 days or so. The pro mets forecasting for longer ranges and the CPC use ensembles, not the operationals.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you get screwed in 98' too? I got the classic WV ice storm special. 

Jan 1998 was a non-event here. That was during the Feb 1996-Nov 2003 dark ages.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sitting here thinking back on the year and I can't believe how little love the February 22-23rd event gets. 10.8" of snow at the NWS office. I know @Gradient Keeper got around a foot with that one, the Salem area scored 2-5". And then PDX had the high of 31 on the 23rd and the low of 18 on the 25th. Impressive all around. We had 31/27, 28/14, 32/12, 37/17 on the 22-25th here. Also a total of 11.3" event on the 22/23rd, which was pretty impressive considering we were dry slotted for a long period of time during the middle of the storm when the action was focused over PDX. Though we got a consolation wrap around band just after midnight which lasted until mid-morning. 

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you get screwed in 98' too? I got the classic WV ice storm special. 

I think we had a little slush one day and that was about it if I’m remembering correctly. I remember being quite disappointed with whatever scraps we got up here. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Might end up around #5, it's a long jam. If so it would be the warmest December at SLE since 1958. 

Maximum 1-Month Mean Avg Temperature 
for SALEM AP (MCNARY FIELD), OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 47.9, 1917-12-31, 0
2, 47.4, 1950-12-31, 0
3, 46.2, 1933-12-31, 0
4, 45.5, 1958-12-31, 0
5, 45.1, 1929-12-31, 0
6, 45.1, 1925-12-31, 0
7, 45.0, 2014-12-31, 0
8, 44.9, 2023-12-31, 2
9, 44.8, 1979-12-31, 0
-, 44.8, 1939-12-31, 0

Period of record: 1893-01-01 to 2023-12-29

Edited December 31, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SpaceRace22]

Anyone else notice that the outliers on the ensembles seem to be getting more extreme? The absolute number of members showing meaningful snow doesn't seem to be changing much overall, so the Ensemble means aren't quite showing this, but it seems to me that there's been a clear tendency across all 3 major ensemble suites to spit out some more extreme solutions on the upper end. Definitely still some potential for a top shelf regional snow event here!

12z CMC Member 4:

 

12z ECMWF Member 02 & 31:

 

12z GFS Member 01, 10, & 18:

   

18z GFS Member 16:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

Anyone else notice that the outliers on the ensembles seem to be getting more extreme? The absolute number of members showing meaningful snow doesn't seem to be changing much overall, so the Ensemble means aren't quite showing this, but it seems to me that there's been a clear tendency across all 3 major ensemble suites to spit out some more extreme solutions on the upper end. Definitely still some potential for a top shelf regional snow event here!

12z CMC Member 4:

 

12z ECMWF Member 02 & 31:

 

12z GFS Member 01, 10, & 18:

   

18z GFS Member 16:

Yeah, I think the bigger potential is during a timeframe that hasn't quite yet come into range. Right now it could go either way and we'll probably have a much better handle on things by mid-week. 

[Phishy Wx]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Smoke em if you got em

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sitting here thinking back on the year and I can't believe how little love the February 22-23rd event gets. 10.8" of snow at the NWS office. I know @Gradient Keeper got around a foot with that one, the Salem area scored 2-5". And then PDX had the high of 31 on the 23rd and the low of 18 on the 25th. Impressive all around. We had 31/27, 28/14, 32/12, 37/17 on the 22-25th here. Also a total of 11.3" event on the 22/23rd, which was pretty impressive considering we were dry slotted for a long period of time during the middle of the storm when the action was focused over PDX. Though we got a consolation wrap around band just after midnight which lasted until mid-morning. 

The second half of February into the first of March was quite tasty! 

[AlTahoe]

Wow some strong El Nino were having. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Anyone else notice that the outliers on the ensembles seem to be getting more extreme? The absolute number of members showing meaningful snow doesn't seem to be changing much overall, so the Ensemble means aren't quite showing this, but it seems to me that there's been a clear tendency across all 3 major ensemble suites to spit out some more extreme solutions on the upper end. Definitely still some potential for a top shelf regional snow event here!

12z CMC Member 4:

 

12z ECMWF Member 02 & 31:

 

12z GFS Member 01, 10, & 18:

   

18z GFS Member 16:

I never look at ensemble snow. Completely pointless.  Models can barely handle snow around here in the 1-2 day range. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

I think we had a little slush one day and that was about it if I’m remembering correctly. I remember being quite disappointed with whatever scraps we got up here. 

Interesting. I know it was a big event for PDX and Clark County. Snow cut off very quickly across the south metro and down in Marion County we just had some freezing rain. It wasn't even that big of a ZR event down here. A solid glaze but it warmed up pretty quickly. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sitting here thinking back on the year and I can't believe how little love the February 22-23rd event gets. 10.8" of snow at the NWS office. I know @Gradient Keeper got around a foot with that one, the Salem area scored 2-5". And then PDX had the high of 31 on the 23rd and the low of 18 on the 25th. Impressive all around. We had 31/27, 28/14, 32/12, 37/17 on the 22-25th here. Also a total of 11.3" event on the 22/23rd, which was pretty impressive considering we were dry slotted for a long period of time during the middle of the storm when the action was focused over PDX. Though we got a consolation wrap around band just after midnight which lasted until mid-morning. 

I remember that day very well. I was at work when it started snowing around 9am or so. I told my boss that one of the models I looked at (don't remember which one) showed a deformation line hitting the area (Gresham, Fairview, Troutdale) showing up to a foot of snow so he said we could go home. I remember needing to go pick up my roommate from his work next to the airport. It was passed 11pm and traffic was really bad trying to pick him up. It was a beautiful day...lol. 

[Skagit Weather]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sitting here thinking back on the year and I can't believe how little love the February 22-23rd event gets. 10.8" of snow at the NWS office. I know @Gradient Keeper got around a foot with that one, the Salem area scored 2-5". And then PDX had the high of 31 on the 23rd and the low of 18 on the 25th. Impressive all around. We had 31/27, 28/14, 32/12, 37/17 on the 22-25th here. Also a total of 11.3" event on the 22/23rd, which was pretty impressive considering we were dry slotted for a long period of time during the middle of the storm when the action was focused over PDX. Though we got a consolation wrap around band just after midnight which lasted until mid-morning. 

Honestly probably because it wasn't particularly memorable for most of the Puget Sound Region. A couple inches of snow in some places and highs around most of the area in the mid 30s with lows in the 20s. Obviously great for late February, but something we've seen relatively frequently in recent years up here.

Sounds like it was more impressive down south, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

The second half of February into the first of March was quite tasty! 

Last winter was absolutely punishing here. 95" of snow. First snow on November 2, last one on April 18th. It was really never ending, other than the very mild end of December and first half of January, but that got drowned out by everything else around it. It is really tiding me over during what has been a non-winter to this point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Coos Bay area on the south Oregon Coast even got 3-6" of snow with the 2/22-23 event. 

[SpaceRace22]

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I never look at ensemble snow. Completely pointless.  Models can barely handle snow around here in the 1-2 day range. 

Ensembles are absolutely the better tool in the long range to be looking at to get a sense of the general pattern. You certainly do not want to be taking exact snowfall amounts even remotely at face value, I'm just sharing the snowfall maps because 1) they are fun to look at and easy dopamine printers, and 2) they're a quick way to get a rough idea of whether the pattern "gets there" or doesn't. Generally you aren't going to be seeing feet of snow at sea level on a member if there isn't full blown arctic air involved. You could certainly look at 850mb temperature profiles to get a more realistic quick look at the atmosphere depicted by various members, but that's less fun. I'm in this for the weenie fantasizing, not the realistic projections, after all

[AlTahoe]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last winter was absolutely punishing here. 95" of snow. First snow on November 2, last one on April 18th. It was really never ending, other than the very mild end of December and first half of January, but that got drowned out by everything else around it. It is really tiding me over during what has been a non-winter to this point. 

Yep totally agree. Our first snow was on the same date as you and it never stopped till April. The hardest part was we never had an extended period of ridging to help melt any of the 330" of snow. Normally we get a couple weeks of sunshine and temps in the mid 40's to help melt the roads between storm cycles. I never saw the pavement in my neighborhood for 5.5 months. Definitely the winter of my lifetime for sure. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Morning of February 23rd on the south coast at Coquille. 

My property on the morning of the 23rd. 

Afternoon south of Independence in Polk, County

Sunset on the 23rd from just outside Sublimity, OR

North Falls at sunset, Silver Falls State Park 2/23/23

[TigerWoodsLibido]

31 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Honestly probably because it wasn't particularly memorable for most of the Puget Sound Region. A couple inches of snow in some places and highs around most of the area in the mid 30s with lows in the 20s. Obviously great for late February, but something we've seen relatively frequently in recent years up here.

Sounds like it was more impressive down south, though.

Not really here. Only 1-2" and most of that fell at night and melted before the sun came up. We haven't had a notable snow event since Dec 2021 and even that didn't stay on the roads. That hasn't happened since Feb 2019 and hasn't happened with a sub-freezing high since Jan 2017.

[Slushy Inch]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m not saying it won’t happen, I am just pointing out that right now it’s clown range and the GFS basically stands alone without Euro support.

GFS and ensemble has been leading trends. EPS was terrible with first trough. Had most of it breaking off and hitting CA

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

GFS and ensemble has been leading trends.

Often, yes, it is.

Also often, it is just a stray dog barking at the moon.

Anyone’s guess as to which of the two it is this time.

[Mercurial]

lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

lol

Sure is a pretty shade of orange over the DC Metro Area.

[LowerGarfield]

34F. Temperature slightly rising. Looks like fog may be rolling in from the west.

My wife does not want snow but I really need something more than just .60 for the season. Please. I realize that's more than some have had this season but you won't mind me asking.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

34F. Temperature slightly rising. Looks like fog may be rolling in from the west.

My wife does not want snow but I really need something more than just .60 for the season. Please. I realize that's more than some have had this season but you won't mind me asking.

You will get significantly more snow this season than a measly 0.6".

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

You will get significantly more snow this season than a measly 0.6".

I hope so! I'm in a semi arid climate so it's always interesting. So glad I didn't move to Tri Cities though. Was close to buying a house in Grangeville, ID if this place had fallen through.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting. I know it was a big event for PDX and Clark County. Snow cut off very quickly across the south metro and down in Marion County we just had some freezing rain. It wasn't even that big of a ZR event down here. A solid glaze but it warmed up pretty quickly. 

January 98 was pretty good a little more north.  Couple decent snow events totalled close to 12” with snow cover for almost 2 weeks.