January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

So what does all of this look like in the next two weeks for UP Michigan lake effect? I have a snowboard trip the weekend of the 20th and the ski resorts up there are barely open.

Golden...what resort?  I've been up there to IndianHead Mtn which has now combined resorts with the old Blackjack, iirc.  Yup, they did get bought out and now are a combined 2 resorts.

 

https://www.buybigsnow.info/

[hawkstwelve]

Really nice improvement for next weekend's storm.

[hawkstwelve]

Crazy to see totals like this from the Euro. Normally these types of amounts are only from the occasionally kooky GFS. It's still snowing by the end of the run.

Probably won't end up to this degree but a man can dream...

[Hawkeye]

10 minutes ago, Money said:

Euro is storm after storm 

Yeah, the pattern is finally becoming very active and cold.  However, details will be unknown beyond a few days.  The early week storm is still up in the air, the late week system is wildly different on the models, and the major energy by day ten could dump snow up here or way down in the southern US.

[gimmesnow]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Golden...what resort?  I've been up there to IndianHead Mtn which has now combined resorts with the old Blackjack, iirc.  Yup, they did get bought out and now are a combined 2 resorts.

 

https://www.buybigsnow.info/

Whitecap and probably Indian Head too. I did Whitecap last year, was a lot of fun even with slow lifts.

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS control run looks awfully similar to the OP. Actually a hair more snow on 10:1 ratios than the deterministic. 

[Black Hole]

57 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Crazy to see totals like this from the Euro. Normally these types of amounts are only from the occasionally kooky GFS. It's still snowing by the end of the run.

Probably won't end up to this degree but a man can dream...

Your fortune is my misfortune ha. Mostly forgettable ECMWF run for me, but I was wowed by that insane cold air outbreak into the PNW.

I think in general the northern Plains will do better after the system on the 10th. The coast-to-coast trough should lift the storm track north since the flow is quicker and there isn't anything to force the storms south at that point.  

[OKwx2k4]

35 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Your fortune is my misfortune ha. Mostly forgettable ECMWF run for me, but I was wowed by that insane cold air outbreak into the PNW.

I think in general the northern Plains will do better after the system on the 10th. The coast-to-coast trough should lift the storm track north since the flow is quicker and there isn't anything to force the storms south at that point.  

It'll be interesting to see if the Euro comes in line with the GFS solutions after this first event here. 

What's setting up is a blitz like 2009 or 2013-14, imo. Will be interesting also to see if the dome of cold and snow in the center of the country can, or if it is what's ultimately going to keep the storms developing and running the edge of the snowpack line. 

Going to be hard to move that much cold out very fast. 

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Hey everyone.  You were probably wondering why I disappeared.  Blame Mediacom cable.  On December 26th, my internet crapped out.  Unfortunately, because I was the only customer affected, I was put at the bottom of the priority list and it took a week to get someone here to check on the problem.  Another two days later, another guy came to fix it.  It turns out the issue was a simple loose screw on one of the poles.  It could have been fixed in a few minutes, but instead I had to be without internet for nine f'ing days.  

Welcome back. Yeah, I'd have an issue or two with patience after a thing like that. Wow.

[Clinton]

This doesn't look to bad.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS is flailing around so badly and has no idea what it wants to do for next week. Huge changes from run to run. Latest skill score update for the 00z runs tonight keeps it's verification scores in the tank. Hard to take much of anything it's outputting right now at face value.

That being said, this looks much more like the 12z Euro than it's previous own run.

[hawkstwelve]

Don't get me wrong, every model is struggling to a certain degree.

But I mean, come on man. What the heck is this...

 

[uticasnow]

For us in southeast Michigan there is no sense in getting excited because the WARM air takes over almost 90% of the time!

[Minny_Weather]

39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Don't get me wrong, every model is struggling to a certain degree.

But I mean, come on man. What the heck is this...

 

I believe the 18Z more because it isn't absolutely terrible for me unlike 12Z!

[gimmesnow]

I dunno but I always feels like GFS goes totally crazy when the pattern is about to make a big shift. Like the more inconsistent it gets the more likely the pattern is about to make a big change. Probably going to be a lot of nowcasting.

[Iceresistance]

9 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Here is total precip through next Friday night. Keep in mind this is in millimeter. 

Assuming 10:1 ratios, just for the sake of easy conversion, it's looking roughly like 6-10 inches here. 12z run only showed 2-4 inches. Nice improvement!

What about my area? IF there is any snow?

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

It'll be interesting to see if the Euro comes in line with the GFS solutions after this first event here. 

What's setting up is a blitz like 2009 or 2013-14, imo. Will be interesting also to see if the dome of cold and snow in the center of the country can, or if it is what's ultimately going to keep the storms developing and running the edge of the snowpack line. 

Going to be hard to move that much cold out very fast. 

Yes, I think the one thing that could change what I said is if we get enough snow far enough south it could force the best baroclinity south too. I could see that happening. Do you think we will score big in the next two weeks? I know from my perspective with the magnitude of cold coming south I could see some surprises. Hopefully tonight is one of them!

[Clinton]

GFS with a pair of storms from the 12th-15th.  This map is at 10:1 ratios will be better than that for most.

Edited January 5 by Clinton

[james1976]

It's not a significant event but the light snow event Fri nite-Sat for the TC has slightly increased from under an inch to 1-2 inches. Lol. Local met mentioned the increase on the 10pm news tonight. Take any positive news we can get!

[winterfreak]

It certainly appears like we'll have some chances in the next 2 weeks. Fingers crossed.

[gabel23]

8 minutes ago, james1976 said:

It's not a significant event but the light snow event Fri nite-Sat for the TC has slightly increased from under an inch to 1-2 inches. Lol. Local met mentioned the increase on the 10pm news tonight. Take any positive news we can get!

I’m rooting for you! More snow north should bode well for us south. Just build a glacier. 

[Black Hole]

Maybe 0.1" here this morning, while I was asleep. I'm not surprised that the south wind helped temps up some. The lowest I recorded was 33.5F. 

[Clinton]

The east Kansas and Kansas City group looks to see some snow today and tonight.  Hopefully some of it will stick but if not enjoy the snowfall.

[Hawkeye]

I'll be happy to get missed by the early week storm if the GFS and Euro are right about the next two, Friday through Sunday.  That period looks much colder and snowier.

[chescowxman]

Some spots had low temps in the teens this morning across the county including Coatesville Airport, Chester Springs and West Bradford Township with the lowest I could find being the 17 degrees in both Warwick and Nottingham Townships. Here in East Nantmeal the low was 20.2 degrees this was the lowest temp I have recorded since the 9.8 above zero last February 4th. Today will be the calm before the storm tomorrow. Snow should arrive during the noon hour from southwest to northeast across the area and quickly change to freezing rain and then over to plain rain by 4pm. The steadiest rain should end by 11pm or so. Total rain and melted snow could total around an inch. Some snow and rain showers could last for a while on Sunday morning. We should see a nice but chilly Monday before a larger rainstorm arrives on Tuesday.

Records for today: High 62 (1950) / Low 7 below zero (1904) / Rain 1.56" (1934) / Snow 3.6" (2003)

[Minny_Weather]

Freezing drizzle has iced everything over here. 27°F.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The east Kansas and Kansas City group looks to see some snow today and tonight.  Hopefully some of it will stick but if not enjoy the snowfall.

It's just nice to see chances of snow in the days ahead for those of you in the MW/GL's...IMO, this is going to turn out to be a memorable JAN for most of you out East!  I've also noticed that night time temps are getting below freezing so the ground shouldn't be that warm, esp up farther north.  Should help with accumulations.

[hawkstwelve]

00z EPS was easily the snowiest run yet by a pretty large margin. I have been waiting for this type of jump in the ensembles before really buying into the multi-storm chances next week. Until now, there had been slight improvements but not to the degree of what the OPs have shown. 

String together a few runs like this and I'll start getting much more excited. 

[Tom]

It's the coldest morning of the season IMBY...38F with clear skies and a calm wind.  Next week I'll most likely be dipping below freezing and many locations in the Valley.  That storm showing up the following weekend looks quite fascinating for the state of Arizona...Boy, this could be the big storm I want to see happen for the Flagstaff area.  BTW, Sunrise Ski Resort to me east had a big 10" snow from the system yesterday.  The next one should produce more...prob double that!  Keep the storm parade coming!

[hawkstwelve]

Normally back-to-back Euro runs like what the 12z yesterday and 00z last night showed would be enough for me to start buying in but with the amounts being shown I'm still highly skeptical. Although you add the 00z GFS, 06z GFS, 00z EPS control (which looked almost exactly like the crazy 12z run from yesterday), and a picture starts being painted that is pretty darn exciting. 

I mean, it's not often that a run like this is not just a one-off thing, especially on the King Euro. It's taking everything in me to not start getting excited. Ultimately though I still need to wait for more ensemble support before I can really start to contemplate jumping on board. 

[MIKEKC]

The storm pounding Wichita(currently in the comma head with 1-2"/hr rates) looks great on radar still and heading towards KC. It is forecasted to weaken big time.. We are around 30 degrees and if snows during the day, we will likely see some accumulation on the grass as temps are expected to get to 33-34 today. Hopefully we see a period of snow after dark tonight and we just might get a nice coating. I'm going to check in on Wichita after this is done, the forecast was for 3-5, I'm thinking they are already there. Might be a big # coming out of this one for them. 

Hoping KC can score an inch or so of snow today. 

[hawkstwelve]

Ok... I hadn't looked at the trend charts for the GEFS or GEPS yet.

But uh... Well, let's just say if they continue down this path today (along with the EPS) I'm going to go from 'cautiously optimistic' to 'holy crap is this really going to happen?!?' 

[MIKEKC]

If today's snow fails, plenty  more chances are showing up as real winter just might show up next week and have some staying power. 

 

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

If today's snow fails, plenty  more chances are showing up as real winter just might show up next week and have some staying power. 

 

06z GFS run look soooo dang similar to the Feb '15 Super Bowl Blizzard...

 

Here is the LOT link....can't make that up!

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2015_Feb01_Snow

[OKwx2k4]

I drove home from work in the snow at 6 this morning and it was pretty cool. Like driving through a snowglobe tunnel. Lol.

It wasn't possible for me to get a good measurement because of ground temps and a lot falling right at or near freezing, but I'd estimate around 2 inches fell here really quickly. Went from near nothing on roads to plowable in 30 mins. 

It was big chicken feather stuff falling for well over an hour. Like driving through concrete though. Like mountain snow, I guess. Was a beautiful first snow of 2024! Here's to a lot more!

[Tom]

What an incredible pattern for next weekend...some mets are saying this next storm we are tracking could become a Blizzard, but this one has a MUCH bigger potential to become a Legit Blizzard...

 

 

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

06z GFS run look soooo dang similar to the Feb '15 Super Bowl Blizzard...

 

Here is the LOT link....can't make that up!

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2015_Feb01_Snow

That storm surprised a lot of us in Nebraska. We ended up receiving twice as much as what was being predicted! 

[Tom]

The "Southwest to Midwest" connection...is this where Blizzard alley will take shape???  This is stuff I dreamed of when living back in Chitown...Buckle up and Dial up...this is a dream pattern that is shaping up!

[Tom]

1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

That storm surprised a lot of us in Nebraska. We ended up receiving twice as much as what was being predicted! 

I remember tracking that storm over a week out and the models were having a very difficult time bc the energy was coming out of Mexico where there is a lack of data.  Iirc, it started to show up on the models 5+ days out...then completely disappeared and we all thought to ourselves "Storm Cancel".  Then, it reappeared once the models had more data from the energy across the Southwest and big changes started to take shape 2-3 days out.  It was def a surprise storm for many on here.

[gabel23]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

I remember tracking that storm over a week out and the models were having a very difficult time bc the energy was coming out of Mexico where there is a lack of data.  Iirc, it started to show up on the models 5+ days out...then completely disappeared and we all thought to ourselves "Storm Cancel".  Then, it reappeared once the models had more data from the energy across the Southwest and big changes started to take shape 2-3 days out.  It was def a surprise storm for many on here.

It was crazy Tom, I remember it really well! Even Hastings NWS mentioned how bad the models were up until the day of the storm. Here is their write up and what they said: 

Forecast-wise, this storm provided quite a challenge, as some areas ended up receiving at least 2-3 times as much snow as originally forecasted 1-3 days before the event. Part of this had to do with the storm track shifting a bit farther north, but also, computer forecast models were unusually inconsistent until the "last minute", when it finally became apparent that it was going to be a fairly major storm especially for the eastern half of the local area. 

 

In other news, this month looks like the best opportunity for a lot of us on the forum to see a winter for the ages! I'm pumped with what Jan. will bring for all of us!