January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[van city]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weird night. 

Rob is not here.

[Kolk1604]

No words... lol 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weird night. 

What are you wearing?

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How does the modeled -NAO stack up to previous El Ninos?

Verbatim? Top 5%. It’s a big one.

We’ll see if it verifies, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

No words... lol 

Only 20 degrees below normal here. I’m disgusted. 

[ShawniganLake]

On 12/15/2023 at 7:24 AM, ShawniganLake said:

Joke’s on him when the cold moves into the west in January. 

 

10 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Nah. According to Phil, you don't need a stable GOA block to get cold, just need more -NAO.

Haha. Called it in mid December.  Phil’s pissed we are stealing the January show.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

What are you wearing?

Well I’m presently putting on an extra layer to prepare for the cold, unless Phil can make it over before midnight…

[smerfylicious]

If this happens, we might have to retire Juneuary for a few years. This is like...a roided up 08.

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS showing improvements in the day 5-7 range

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS showing improvements in the day 5-7 range

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure what to think but it is interesting pretty much every model made a major shift in the same direction. Time to take a wait and see approach and avoid any significant emotional investment. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weird night. 

Penny for your thoughts Andrew.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure what to think but it is interesting pretty much every model made a major shift in the same direction. Time to take a wait and see approach and avoid any significant emotional investment. 

Looks like I get to keep my penny  

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

That GOA block is a flabby mess compared to the monstrous -NAO on this run.

Actually proves my point to a tee.  (And proves you wrong).

Pacific block is much improved compared to milder runs. Probably a coincidence, given history. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wonder how things looked on the models at this point 94 years ago? 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS 12z vs 0z actually not quite the same hour, as I copied the wrong hour, but still big improvement 

 

Edited January 3 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[selkirks]

Will definitely moderate in the coming days. But still, fun times possible ahead!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wonder how things looked on the models at this point 94 years ago? 

More racist

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS 12z vs 0z

 

I love to see it

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wonder how things looked on the models at this point 94 years ago? 

Back when the models were silent and in black and white.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

Haha. Called it in mid December.  Phil’s pissed we are stealing the January show.  

Lmao. If it were a neutral year maybe. But in this case there’s nothing to steal because big niños have terrible snow climo here until very end of Jan.

Was expecting a boring month until the 25th +/- a few days so this pattern actually exceeds my expectations.

(From Eric Webb on X/twitter)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS 12z vs 0z

 

Looks like a monster preparing to eat us. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

More racist

Well it snowed and colded more.

[SpaceRace22]

The GEFS control run gets PDX down to -7F. Lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If this verifies do we still get an arctic blast next winter?! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a monster preparing to eat us. 

I fear the only monster we have to worry about the next few days, Andrew, is the monster of our own unreasonable expectations.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Goddamn those are some beautiful maps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I fear the only monster we have to worry about the next few days, Andrew, is the monster of our own unreasonable expectations.

Right now the 06z GFS is in the locker room dry heaving before it takes the field. It’s nervous because it has so much to live up to and can’t bare the thought of crushing our dreams. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold shower and then back to bed for this degenerate model porn enthusiast. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I fear the only monster we have to worry about the next few days, Andrew, is the monster of our own unreasonable expectations.

Have fun with it, Jess. We can meet up in the shuttered stand alone JC Penney parking lot and geek out about it if you wanna. 

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure what to think but it is interesting pretty much every model made a major shift in the same direction. Time to take a wait and see approach and avoid any significant emotional investment. 

At this point, I'm just concerned about how big that regional dud monkey will be if the PNW scores bigly this winter.

[Kolk1604]

Control is onboard. 

[ShawniganLake]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is showing the greatest January blast in many decades.

January 2020 looked similar for awhile. 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pacific block is much improved compared to milder runs. Probably a coincidence, given history. 

It’s still a skinny, mediocre mess by comparison.

And the changes aren’t even forced from the NPAC to begin with.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Control is onboard. 

That’s lukewarm cottage cheese compared to most control runs this time of year.

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS looking real good with the ridge merger day 9-10

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

January 2020 looked similar for awhile. 

I think the GFS was locked on single digit highs here for a couple days solid. Didn’t quite verify.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s still a skinny, mediocre mess by comparison.

And the changes aren’t even forced from the NPAC to begin with.

We get it. Atlantic RULES, Pacific DROOLS.

Size isn't everything...

.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Massive improvement day 11