January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Sunriver Slush Zone]

HAPPY NEW YEAR

[The Blob]

Happy New Year! Celebrated with my son blowing chunks all over the bathroom!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

HAPPY NEW YEAR!! Here’s to many snowfalls for the region!!

[Meatyorologist]

HNY!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

New Year blessings to all. 

[MWG]

[Requiem]

Happy new year folks

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm hitting the sack, but if I wake up I'll night shift it. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Night shift?

Maybe if euro came out faster and went out longer

[SpaceRace22]

Confirmed tsunami hitting the west coast of Japan right now

[LowerGarfield]

21 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Happy New Year! Celebrated with my son blowing chunks all over the bathroom!

Happened to me in 2017. Spent the opening minutes of that year doing that. It ended up being noro virus probably because it got all 7 or 8 people in that house and all with the same sudden symptoms over the course of a few days.

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Confirmed tsunami hitting the west coast of Japan right now

Not a great start to the year. Earthquake?

[SpaceRace22]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not a great start to the year. Earthquake?

Yep, looks like a 7.6. Definitely a big one, but hopefully won't be nearly as bad as 2011 at least. https://x.com/BNONews/status/1741727868634206525?s=20

[SpaceRace22]

Oh crap, this is actually a pretty significant tsunami in some places. 

 

[FroYoBro]

Merry Christmas!!!

[SpaceRace22]

I find it kind of funny that we were just talking about the insane climate of northern Japan earlier this evening, and now the EPS Control run shows a literal sea effect snow pattern for the PNW exactly like Hokkaido gets. Has something like this ever actually happened? -15 to -20c 850mb temps over the ocean, with onshore flow ripping nonstop bands of sea effect snow right into our coast? If the EPS Control run went out a little bit more after its last frame, this would be absolutely legendary. We'd be talking city of Buffalo type snowstorm amounts for the entire coast. Houses on the west side of the Olympic peninsula would be buried up to the roofline.

[HuskyMaestro]

Happy New Years everyone! Up for that night shift, let's go

[Meatyorologist]

06z incoming. Let's channel that Sapporo climate!

[snow_wizard]

53 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I find it kind of funny that we were just talking about the insane climate of northern Japan earlier this evening, and now the EPS Control run shows a literal sea effect snow pattern for the PNW exactly like Hokkaido gets. Has something like this ever actually happened? -15 to -20c 850mb temps over the ocean, with onshore flow ripping nonstop bands of sea effect snow right into our coast? If the EPS Control run went out a little bit more after its last frame, this would be absolutely legendary. We'd be talking city of Buffalo type snowstorm amounts for the entire coast. Houses on the west side of the Olympic peninsula would be buried up to the roofline.

It has happened.

[snow_wizard]

33.4 here now.  Nippy start to the year.

[ShawniganLake]

Bombing!

 

[snow_wizard]

The 6z GFS is almost identical to the 0z ECMWF and EPS control early in week two.  Might bode very well!

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GEFS Day 9'er (4-run trend) Not bad.

[smerfylicious]

It needs to stop teasing me with low level snow. I need my ice age, for science

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS was a pale comparison to the 06Z GFS last night just glancing at temp output.   But that is sort of irrelevant now that the EPS looks much more ripe for arctic air in the long range.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GEFS
Happy New Year 

1/1/24 6:50 am

What a way to ring in the New Year but with the best ensemble run yet. Yep.

 

Ridge builds over the Gulf of Alaska with initial cold trough. Long range strong blocking high develops over western Alaska with cold trough digging south from British Columbia. Note the dramatic improvement in the 500mb pattern. It's not ideal just yet for a major cold wave or arctic blast west of the Cascades, but it's relatively close to doing so.

 

Looking at 850mb temps for PDX shows a nice cluster of members -5c to -10c. We cool off starting January 7th or 8th with high temperatures dipping into the upper 30th and steadily cooling throughout the long range even further near freezing late in the run. Precipitation increases steadily as well pointing to significant mountain snow with very low snow levels at times.

 

Further east into the eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin it's colder yet as expected in this pattern. For Moses Lake the mean temp is down to -8.7c with a large cluster of members at -10c to -20c. Surface temps nosedive plummeting the area below freezing and long range its quite cold.

 

All in all it appears the potential for a cold pattern after January 9th may be increasing. Let's keep this going with 12z runs today.

 

Day 9'er GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)
Day 13 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)
16 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly
16 Day Snowfall totals
Portland - 850mb Temps
Moses Lake - 850mb Temps

[Phil]

Guidance trended stronger with the -NAO again! Maybe yesterday afternoon was a blip.

[TT-SEA]

My son and his girlfriend flew out of SEA this morning bound for New Orleans and the Sugar Bowl tonight so I was checking conditions at SEA.  The official observation still shows 1 mile visibility in fog/mist but the live cam looks pretty cool with a very shallow fog deck and Olympics in the background.  

Completely clear here this morning and 38 with a light east wind.  Should be another beautiful day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Night Shift 6z GEFS
Happy New Year 

1/1/24 6:50 am

What a way to ring in the New Year but with the best ensemble run yet. Yep.

 

Ridge builds over the Gulf of Alaska with initial cold trough. Long range strong blocking high develops over western Alaska with cold trough digging south from British Columbia. Note the dramatic improvement in the 500mb pattern. It's not ideal just yet for a major cold wave or arctic blast west of the Cascades, but it's relatively close to doing so.

 

Looking at 850mb temps for PDX shows a nice cluster of members -5c to -10c. We cool off starting January 7th or 8th with high temperatures dipping into the upper 30th and steadily cooling throughout the long range even further near freezing late in the run. Precipitation increases steadily as well pointing to significant mountain snow with very low snow levels at times.

 

Further east into the eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin it's colder yet as expected in this pattern. For Moses Lake the mean temp is down to -8.7c with a large cluster of members at -10c to -20c. Surface temps nosedive plummeting the area below freezing and long range its quite cold.

 

All in all it appears the potential for a cold pattern after January 9th may be increasing. Let's keep this going with 12z runs today.

 

Day 9'er GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)
Day 13 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)
16 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly
16 Day Snowfall totals
Portland - 850mb Temps
Moses Lake - 850mb Temps

Some real potential. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yep, looks like a 7.6. Definitely a big one, but hopefully won't be nearly as bad as 2011 at least. https://x.com/BNONews/status/1741727868634206525?s=20

Logarithmic scale, so a 7.6 is a lot weaker than a 9.0.

[Slushy Inch]

6z gefs best by cold and snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

6z gefs best by cold and snow.

Seeing the mean stay below normal so long on the 850mb chart is encouraging. I remember going into the February 2019 period and even last February, or further back the winter of 2016-17, the good periods were always preceded by an ensemble mean that looked pretty similar to what we are seeing now. An extended period of below average temps is going to set us up for the potential to pop off something good. 

[Slushy Inch]

6z euro control was pretty chilling from first trough

[TT-SEA]

One more SEA cam update... official observation is 1/2 mile visibility in fog.   But the runways are in the sun already.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looking good for improving the mountain snow pack at least. And definitely potential for getting something in the lowlands as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the GFS that trough coming through Saturday morning could be enough to give us a couple inches of snow here. The GEM is looking downright chilly with the first trough too. 

[MossMan]

Leaving that roaster of a month we were just in behind, and magically we are chilly again! 

Edited January 1, 2024 by MossMan