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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)


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HNY!!!!!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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New Year blessings to all. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Happy new year folks 🥳

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Night shift?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I'm hitting the sack, but if I wake up I'll night shift it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Happy New Year! Celebrated with my son blowing chunks all over the bathroom!

Happened to me in 2017. Spent the opening minutes of that year doing that. It ended up being noro virus probably because it got all 7 or 8 people in that house and all with the same sudden symptoms over the course of a few days.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Confirmed tsunami hitting the west coast of Japan right now

Screenshot_20240101-002401.png

Not a great start to the year. Earthquake?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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06z incoming. Let's channel that Sapporo climate!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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53 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I find it kind of funny that we were just talking about the insane climate of northern Japan earlier this evening, and now the EPS Control run shows a literal sea effect snow pattern for the PNW exactly like Hokkaido gets. Has something like this ever actually happened? -15 to -20c 850mb temps over the ocean, with onshore flow ripping nonstop bands of sea effect snow right into our coast? If the EPS Control run went out a little bit more after its last frame, this would be absolutely legendary. We'd be talking city of Buffalo type snowstorm amounts for the entire coast. Houses on the west side of the Olympic peninsula would be buried up to the roofline.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-t850-5363200.thumb.png.a2d9f1307195413876301a09d98bc150.pngecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-wnd10m_stream_mph-5363200.thumb.png.15cf24f9738b9a1ea66ff8797d0a6399.png

It has happened.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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33.4 here now.  Nippy start to the year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 6z GFS is almost identical to the 0z ECMWF and EPS control early in week two.  Might bode very well!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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06Z GFS was a pale comparison to the 06Z GFS last night just glancing at temp output.   But that is sort of irrelevant now that the EPS looks much more ripe for arctic air in the long range.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Night Shift 6z GEFS
🍾🎉 Happy New Year  🎆🥂

1/1/24 6:50 am
What a way to ring in the New Year but with the best ensemble run yet. Yep.
 
Ridge builds over the Gulf of Alaska with initial cold trough. Long range strong blocking high develops over western Alaska with cold trough digging south from British Columbia. Note the dramatic improvement in the 500mb pattern. It's not ideal just yet for a major cold wave or arctic blast west of the Cascades, but it's relatively close to doing so.
 
Looking at 850mb temps for PDX shows a nice cluster of members -5c to -10c. We cool off starting January 7th or 8th with high temperatures dipping into the upper 30th and steadily cooling throughout the long range even further near freezing late in the run. Precipitation increases steadily as well pointing to significant mountain snow with very low snow levels at times.
 
Further east into the eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin it's colder yet as expected in this pattern. For Moses Lake the mean temp is down to -8.7c with a large cluster of members at -10c to -20c. Surface temps nosedive plummeting the area below freezing and long range its quite cold.
 
All in all it appears the potential for a cold pattern after January 9th may be increasing. Let's keep this going with 12z runs today.
 
Day 9'er GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)
Day 13 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)
16 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly
16 Day Snowfall totals
Portland - 850mb Temps
Moses Lake - 850mb Temps
floop-gefsens-2024010106.500h_anom-mean.na.gif
trend-gefsens-2024010106-f216.500h_anom-mean.na(1).gif
trend-gefsens-2024010106-f312.500h_anom-mean.na.gif
image.jpeg
image.jpeg
image.jpeg
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My son and his girlfriend flew out of SEA this morning bound for New Orleans and the Sugar Bowl tonight so I was checking conditions at SEA.  The official observation still shows 1 mile visibility in fog/mist but the live cam looks pretty cool with a very shallow fog deck and Olympics in the background.  

Completely clear here this morning and 38 with a light east wind.  Should be another beautiful day.

Screenshot_20240101-073237_Chrome.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Night Shift 6z GEFS
🍾🎉 Happy New Year  🎆🥂

1/1/24 6:50 am
What a way to ring in the New Year but with the best ensemble run yet. Yep.
 
Ridge builds over the Gulf of Alaska with initial cold trough. Long range strong blocking high develops over western Alaska with cold trough digging south from British Columbia. Note the dramatic improvement in the 500mb pattern. It's not ideal just yet for a major cold wave or arctic blast west of the Cascades, but it's relatively close to doing so.
 
Looking at 850mb temps for PDX shows a nice cluster of members -5c to -10c. We cool off starting January 7th or 8th with high temperatures dipping into the upper 30th and steadily cooling throughout the long range even further near freezing late in the run. Precipitation increases steadily as well pointing to significant mountain snow with very low snow levels at times.
 
Further east into the eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin it's colder yet as expected in this pattern. For Moses Lake the mean temp is down to -8.7c with a large cluster of members at -10c to -20c. Surface temps nosedive plummeting the area below freezing and long range its quite cold.
 
All in all it appears the potential for a cold pattern after January 9th may be increasing. Let's keep this going with 12z runs today.
 
Day 9'er GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)
Day 13 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)
16 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly
16 Day Snowfall totals
Portland - 850mb Temps
Moses Lake - 850mb Temps
floop-gefsens-2024010106.500h_anom-mean.na.gif
trend-gefsens-2024010106-f216.500h_anom-mean.na(1).gif
trend-gefsens-2024010106-f312.500h_anom-mean.na.gif
image.jpeg
image.jpeg
image.jpeg

Some real potential. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

6z gefs best by cold and snow.image.thumb.png.4f699e55d283358267b48e367cda6cc3.pngimage.thumb.png.7263e071daa34a7b653f97a435b7fd71.png

Seeing the mean stay below normal so long on the 850mb chart is encouraging. I remember going into the February 2019 period and even last February, or further back the winter of 2016-17, the good periods were always preceded by an ensemble mean that looked pretty similar to what we are seeing now. An extended period of below average temps is going to set us up for the potential to pop off something good. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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One more SEA cam update... official observation is 1/2 mile visibility in fog.   But the runways are in the sun already.

Screenshot_20240101-081207_Chrome.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking at the GFS that trough coming through Saturday morning could be enough to give us a couple inches of snow here. The GEM is looking downright chilly with the first trough too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Leaving that roaster of a month we were just in behind, and magically we are chilly again! 

IMG_1499.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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