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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)


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This is the control run of the 12Z GFS for my area. I'm thinking big changes will happen around the 6th. The temperatures I think around that time are being conservative, I think they maybe lower just because I don't think the model handles the East Wind factor very well. At the end of the run, looks like a possibility of a Arctic Outbreak with high temperatures in the 20’s. The start of January looks to be very interesting 🤔🥶🌬❄️🌨

Screenshot_20240101_094014_Chrome.jpg

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Low temp of 20.8, and right now we're experiencing the highest recorded temp all year, of 26.9. It's awful that we now get our yearly record highs in January...

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Coldest temp this winter: -6 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated Feb 21st) 94" 

Snow depth at my home (updated 2pm Feb 21st): 1.5"

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How bout that 12z GFS? 😄

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

How ironic would it be if the swamp was the big winner with this?

They'd have to stop calling it the swamp.

@SilverFallsAndrew had better run to Portland this week to buy Kale before the normals realize what could happen.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

I really don't want to jinx it for her, but I think we should all have a party at @MWG's school in Medford as they could be the big winner in nearly all the events. Really shocking if true.

Lol no one can jinx this more than NWS in Medford 🤣. Don’t get me wrong they are pretty good down here and I understand how difficult it is to forecast in this area but oh boy sometimes when they put on the forecast about us getting some snow it doesn’t pan out! 
But yeah hopefully this can keep going and we get some snow down here! 🙌

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

us_reanalyse-en_modera5_200401011500_1256_149.png

That one was really sweet up here.  The models had shown no precip for us and the only reason it was cold enough for snow was the fact we had several hours of east wind before unexpected moisture arrived.  The end result was a very rare event where it snowed here and only rained in areas north of here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Snowpocalypse from SEA to PDX.

1705492800-dObTHMGVN8Y.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

12z GEFS is quite a bit worse than the 6z

1705384800-BAaePFg7Kps.png

The 6z was fantastic though.  Normal run to run wiggle.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The 6z was fantastic though.  Normal run to run wiggle.

I agree with this opinion. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z vs 6z GEFS also depends what part of the run you look at.  At this time here the 12z was better.

1705168800-0UkqiMCLSOU.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I also love the fact the earlier stuff has trended colder now as well.  The 6z EPS was colder than the 0z for next weekend.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

us_reanalyse-en_modera5_200401011500_1256_149.png

I flew out to Alaska for the first time that morning.  Roads weren't bad, they got worse.  My car was stuck at work until I got home.  I remember the WSW and Blizzard Warnings for the gorge as I was up in crystal clear Petersburg. 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I also love the fact the earlier stuff has trended colder now as well.  The 6z EPS was colder than the 0z for next weekend.

Definitely saw things trend a notch cooler with the first trough this morning. 

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

setting up the other pull nicely

 

Kenan Thompson Eating GIF by Saturday Night Live

I wouldn’t consider us close enough to rug pull range even if the models took a turn for the worst right now. This is a long ways out on the models still…

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

10 day WRF snowfall ❄️ 

 

IMG_8014.gif

Here's the map of Oregon for those of us who do not live in Washington or northern Oregon. A ton of snow in my area!

image.thumb.png.e2b8155524c6618e2db310868b4c646f.png

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Coldest temp this winter: -6 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated Feb 21st) 94" 

Snow depth at my home (updated 2pm Feb 21st): 1.5"

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I wouldn’t consider us close enough to rug pull range even if the models took a turn for the worst right now. This is a long ways out on the models still…

Too late, I've already added frolicking in the snow to my itinerary. 

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The potential with this is off the charts, once it gets started there's going to be many different ways to get snow.  Wr might even get strong cold onshore flow snow! And it's freaking JANUARY. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I wouldn’t consider us close enough to rug pull range even if the models took a turn for the worst right now. This is a long ways out on the models still…

yeah we've had some pretty different solutions in the last 48 hours. A lot of roads lead to Rome on them but you can't pull the rug until the pattern has established some sort of consistency according to the weather forum bylaws.

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4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

yeah we've had some pretty different solutions in the last 48 hours. A lot of roads lead to Rome on them but you can't pull the rug until the pattern has established some sort of consistency according to the weather forum bylaws.

Looks like it’ll be much cooler and more interesting than anything we’ve had recently atleast. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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56 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

us_reanalyse-en_modera5_200401011500_1256_149.png

I have very strong memories of this day. Probably my first big event that made me want to figure out what happened. Found Mark’s blog that same winter.

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30 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The potential with this is off the charts, once it gets started there's going to be many different ways to get snow.  Wr might even get strong cold onshore flow snow! And it's freaking JANUARY. 

Not only in January but a raging El Niño to boot! Wow!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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