January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember the ECMWF usually follows the GEM

I will say often seems like the GEM goes too crazy in advance of these situations. Euro if similar will be watered down at least some.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, van city said:

The highs and the lows here are hilarious. 

10:1 the GFS is an outlier and the ensembles look better

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wasn't "doing" anything, I was just commenting on a catastrophic GFS run.  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Listen folks. It’s called model riding for a reason. It’s not for the faint of heart. This ride is Space Mountain, Matterhorn, and Incredicoaster, not Peter Pan’s Flight or It’s a Small World.

These things crash and reappear and crash and reappear. And HOPEFULLY, by the time you get within a day or so, it is reappearing.

I know the gut punch feeling well, trust me. Lol. But be patient. Go for a walk, call your Mom and tell her you love her, play with your dog or cat, wait for the next round and then if all of the models pull back consistently over 48 hours, then go binge that show you’ve put off and look up houses above 5,000 ft elevation.

The last few GFS are obviously uninspiring and frustrating, but hope isn’t lost. Way too much out there pointing to SOMETHING(s) to throw in the towel.

chin up!!

My dog is already exhausted with all of the model riding! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

GEPS still bad

No improvement on GEFS

 

Need euro and eps to save us here

[MossMan]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

GEPS still bad

No improvement on GEFS

 

Need euro and eps to save us here

THANKS FOR THE PROMPT UPDATE! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Between the anemic block and el nino climo this has slide east and border hugger written all over it.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Slight step back on GEFS so far

[Nov1985]

9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

10:1 the GFS is an outlier and the ensembles look better

 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Slight step back on GEFS so far

Meh it's wrong. No one cares 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Meh it's wrong. No one cares 

LOL. Normally I would agree but GEPS is even further (way further in fact) east than GEFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

LOL. Normally I would agree but GEPS is even further (way further in fact) east than GEFS.

I haven't seen the 12z GEPS. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Good snowy morning!  Disappointed by the models this morning but atleast I woke up to more surprise snow then forecast! About an inch

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Such a shock.

What is it like living as the world's smartest man? Why are you spending any time here with us?

[AbbyJr]

12 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

12z CMC OP delivers the goods although block is sketchy to say the least.

Really interested to see new 12z CMC ensembles. The last two runs have been nothing short of a disaster (sliding the goods straight into the midwest).

12z GEFS will be telling. If they improve, let's hope they are not playing catch up to the OP.

This block looks sketchy? Not sure what you're talking about. Looks pretty strong and solid to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEFS is worse, but I would expect it to be slightly worse given how horrific the OP was. GEM was still fantastic. Hope we can hold on to that magic. 

[Christensen87]

lol at least CFS is looking a bit better. Come on Euro! 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

LOL. Normally I would agree but GEPS is even further (way further in fact) east than GEFS.

Not sure what your looking at. The GEPS is only out to Wednesday 

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

This block looks sketchy? Not sure what you're talking about. Looks pretty strong and solid to me.

Base is weak. Prone to being undercut. Cold air likely to stall at BLI and slide into the plains/midwest. Seen this movie before...

[iFred]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

This block looks sketchy? Not sure what you're talking about. Looks pretty strong and solid to me.

That is his schtick. It'll be all bad until it is solidly good.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

GEM has my vote. Strange run though, it gives bend only 7" and me well over 2 feet...

 

[Doinko]

The 00z EPS was a pretty big improvement, the mean over a degree colder for Seattle and PDX.

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Not sure what your looking at. The GEPS is only out to Wednesday 

Yeah idiot me looking at the 00z. 

[Randyc321]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wasn't "doing" anything, I was just commenting on a catastrophic GFS run.  

In all fairness you kind of only half way comment quite often.  Leave a disappointing statement and then mic drop without any explanation.

 

[RentonHill]

GEPS is actually better so far. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

GEPS is much further west than last night's

[Mid Valley Duck]

GEFS is trying to pull off a cleaner ridge merger for next Thursday/Friday.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

GEPS is actually better so far. 

That is encouraging. I am hoping this further proves the GFS/GEFS needs to be put out to pasture.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Yeah idiot me looking at the 00z. 

This was me last night posting the 12z Spire.  Speaking of Jim's favorite new model, when does this B!tch update?  No 0z from last night.

[Deweydog]

Euro at hour 192 looks EXACTLY like the 00z.

[DeepFriedEgg]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

GEPS is much further west than last night's

Thank god. I was having a panic attack looking at the 00z.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Looking at the Spaghetti chart for the GEFS. The arctic camp is definitely smaller, only 20% drop below -9c. There is a growing cool camp where about 50% are between -5 to -9c for Thursday/Friday.

[Hawksfan2008]

SPIRE 

[Randyc321]

My current Wunderground forecast.....

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

SPIRE 

That's yesterday's 12z. Also that block is getting undercut like a mofo

[Snownerd3000]

 

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

SPIRE 

You did what I did.  This is the 12z from yesterday.  The hamster must have fallen off its wheel at Wxbell.  You think if I bug Joey B he'll reset the wheel?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

GEPS is much further west than last night's

What a blessing. 

[RentonHill]

The wxbell servers are on the struggle bus this morning

[iFred]

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.

Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.

Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cover measured in weeks.

[Canadian guy]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Looking at the Spaghetti chart for the GEFS. The arctic camp is definitely smaller, only 20% drop below -9c. There is a growing cool camp where about 50% are between -5 to -9c for Thursday/Friday.

By the 13th the gfs op is basically the warmest member.