January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Snownerd3000]

To be fair, the SPIRE from yesterday 12z was amazing.  Hoping whenever skynet comes back online we can see more beautiful outputs from it.

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, Canadian guy said:

By the 13th the gfs op is basically the warmest member. 

Yep It's in the warmest 3rd of members from hour 132 to hour 234 (so far).

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Looking at the Spaghetti chart for the GEFS. The arctic camp is definitely smaller, only 20% drop below -9c. There is a growing cool camp where about 50% are between -5 to -9c for Thursday/Friday.

For what city? Can u post pls 

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

The wxbell servers are on the struggle bus this morning

The entire country is tracking this and most of them stand to gain from our loss. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Side note for anyone traveling to the national championship game in Houston. Chance for severe storms that day. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

For what city? Can u post pls 

Portland.

[Minion]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Andrew has a reputation for a reason lol. In general…it’s best to just look at the models yourself and make your own analysis. 

What does he even get out of that? Seems silly 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Minion said:

What does he even get out of that? Seems silly 

UR talking about me right now... But seriously, we have to be realistic. 

Edited January 4 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Minion]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

UR talking about me right now...

 

[Front Ranger]

Euro is HAPPENING.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Euro is HAPPENING.

Exciting. 

[Phishy Wx]

23 minutes ago, iFred said:

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.

Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.

Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cover measured in weeks.

let's lean '19, only Nino in the group

[TacomaWx]

12 minutes ago, Minion said:

What does he even get out of that? Seems silly 

Some of the newer people don’t really get his humor…but Andrew does know what he’s talking about and is very knowledgeable with a healthy dose of trolling and dramatics. 

[Phishy Wx]

20 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Yep It's in the warmest 3rd of members from hour 132 to hour 234 (so far).

this would imply the GFS Op will probably swing back into the cold camp for druncle

[Mid Valley Duck]

FWIW GEFS control run goes full arctic day 9-11

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Side note for anyone traveling to the national championship game in Houston. Chance for severe storms that day. 

well it's a good thing the game is indoors

[ShawniganLake]

GFS has a big kona low at day 16.  Possible block reset.  Shades of 1969. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

GEFS starting to pick up on the idea of the block reorganizing next weekend and setting up shop near the sweet spot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Some of the newer people don’t really get his humor…but Andrew does know what he’s talking about and is very knowledgeable with a healthy dose of trolling and dramatics. 

Real talk here. I should probably keep that in mind. 

[umadbro]

Andy will see snow out of this. He’s not too concerned, yet. But we’ll all know for sure when he is.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32 minutes ago, iFred said:

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.

Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.

Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cover measured in weeks.

No thanks, don’t want the resulting disappointment.

I will continue imagining an outcome anywhere from a brief hit of fleeting slushy snow to a garden-variety blast lasting a few days. Which are both pretty darn good for January in an El Niño winter.

[High Desert Mat?]

How dare you Andrew!!!! Lol. Models are tending towards climo tho. No doubting that. 

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Andy will see snow out of this. He’s not too concerned, yet. But we’ll all know for sure when he is.

Andy in Woodinville? I miss that guy.

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Real talk here. I should probably keep that in mind. 

no diss intended at all man! 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Andy in Woodinville? I miss that guy.

I only see his posts on Pac Northwest wx group. Didn't realize he was a on here before. 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I only see his posts on Pac Northwest wx group. Didn't realize he was a on here before. 

He was until someone made fun of his frog. That person was banned but he never came back.

[The Winter Warlock]

Keep me updated. In an ISO 27001 surveillance audit all day.

[RentonHill]

To my autistic eye the 12z euro looks more like yesterday's 12z than the 00z from last night. At least through Day 3. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

no diss intended at all man! 

Understood.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

He was until someone made fun of his frog. That person was banned but he never came back.

Haha an odd guy.

[SimplySmoothWX]

https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/weather/2024/01/04/oregon-weather-forecast-mountain-pass-snow/72099946007/

 

Uh oh..

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Stronger signal for a block then in the last few GEFS runs

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

To my autistic eye the 12z euro looks more like yesterday's 12z than the 00z from last night. At least through Day 3. 

Through day 4 it definitely looks more like today's CMC than the GFS.

[Randyc321]

27 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Some of the newer people don’t really get his humor…but Andrew does know what he’s talking about and is very knowledgeable with a healthy dose of trolling and dramatics. 

I am not new.  Not nearly.  I don't post often but I have been here for many years.  I just do not get your humor very often @SilverFallsAndrew , but to each their own.

[Front Ranger]

People are different. 

[Slushy Inch]

Looks better than gfs so far

[Randyc321]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

People are different. 

That has to stop.  Everyone should be exactly the same

[Slushy Inch]

West coast trough connected to canada trough unlike gfs!

[Phil]

 

53 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Side note for anyone traveling to the national championship game in Houston. Chance for severe storms that day. 

A 15% at day 5 is actually pretty bullish for SPC. That cyclone next week could be nasty.

46 minutes ago, Minion said:

What does he even get out of that? Seems silly 

Andrew is an emotional creature. His analysis is based on vibes for the most part.

35 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

let's lean '19, only Nino in the group

Feb 2021 is actually the better match overall, 2019 quite different w/rt strat/NAM and opposite QBO (less receptive to SSW).

[Slushy Inch]

Better euro run to run