January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Mid Valley Duck]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er - Well, that's unfortunate. Maybe the EPS will be more stout with the ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Hopefully we can manage this.

[lowlandsnow]

It's definitely not a bad run but I am still disappointed the 12z was so much better

 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er - Well, that's unfortunate. Maybe the EPS will be more stout with the ridge.

Ridge merger was botched compared to 12z. May be yet another inflection point. And Goa ridging is altogether worse 

[Doinko]

Still very cold but not nearly as much as the 12z. Let's see what the EPS shows!

[OysterPrintout]

PDX does a little better this run in the believable-ish range than 12z to my eyes. Still hanging on by a thread here but anytime you survive a euro run without the house falling apart is a good thing.

Might be looking like some backdoor action later in the run.

[RCola]

Chalk it up to wobbles for now. To day 5, GEM and Euro were in lock step. That's about as far out as I trust even the operational Euro. 

The EPS will be telling though. I hope they improve just like the GEFS improved.

[Gradient Keeper]

Real cold backdoor shot. Imagine if the ridge had been stronger though.

[Mercurial]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

any colder than that and they may start shutting down the lifts anyway

[Gradient Keeper]

High temps in the 20s for PDX. Not bad.

[Jbolin]

Sooooo, anybody running for the razor blades yet? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

COLD!

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Much more progressive than CMC, despite that monster -NAO.

Plenty of time to swing back the other way...and this is still quite the cold run.

[iFred]

Need to take a disk snapshot. Place is going down for a bit.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Went down for a while

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Overnight runs seemed ok.

[Minion]

6 hours ago, Jbolin said:

Sooooo, anybody running for the razor blades yet? 

Nope. I said 3 hours prior to this that historical was never on the table and I got called out for no reason lol

 

It's still going to get cold  

[Minion]

28 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Overnight runs seemed ok.

It's a good run 

[Ken in Wood Village]

It's a little frustrating when this site goes down I was having withdrawals

The 00Z EPS looked good. In fact, the storm on or about the 11th looks even better for snowfall in my area 🌨

What's funny is I was talking to my lead at work about the possibility of snow on that day then the colder air coming in, work decided to work this Saturday instead of next Saturday (1/13/24). I didn't think they would actually take my input about the weather conditions...lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice trough on the 06z, but we have definitely seen a trend emerge over the past few runs of a nice trough and then everything shifting east. It’s a trend that began with the much maligned 18z GFS ensembles. Unless we see a dramatic shift back towards a cold solution on the 12z suite we should understand the high end potential is essentially gone. Doesn’t mean some folks won’t see flakes or lows below freezing, but the high end blast potential is quickly escaping our grasp. #december2024

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d say I think the high end potential right now is something like December 2021 or January 2007. No one would complain if that happened. At this point both of those are extremely aspirational, but the potential is there. 

[Kolk1604]

The most recent OP runs of the EMCWF and GFS seem to be outliers; their ensembles were much better. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

GEPS is waaay east

[TacomaWx]

41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Doesn’t mean some folks won’t see flakes or lows below freezing, but the high end blast potential is quickly escaping our grasp. #december2024

I agree with the high end potential part being unlikely some of those runs with sub zero lows were obviously a pipe dream. The part about only seeing a few flakes or only some sub freezing lows seems like a pretty low bar though. There’s still definitely some good potential for some good stuff to happen still…more so than some snowflakes and lows in the upper 20s. 

[Groundhog]

Been a lurker for four years, so I’m familiar with the culture here. I’m Canadian and I live north of the 49th in the Fraser Valley. However, I’m familiar with the PNW south of the 49th. My folks lived in Junction City, OR as my dad had a green card and worked there for from ‘99-‘04. Drove down to visit them a number of times. 
 

May it be a day of cold, snowy operational & ensemble outputs.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Still some time for ridge to trend less progressive but we are going to need to see improvements soon since El Niño climo is working against us.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d say I think the high end potential right now is something like December 2021 or January 2007. No one would complain if that happened. At this point both of those are extremely aspirational, but the potential is there. 

December 2021 had a big dump of snow and the coldest temperature in 50 years IMBY.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

December 2021 had a big dump of snow and the coldest temperature in 50 years IMBY.

Well maybe not that kind of potential up there, but who knows. Would be awesome. 

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

December 2021 had a big dump of snow and the coldest temperature in 50 years IMBY.

I would be in heaven with a December 2021 repeat! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

December 2021 had a big dump of snow and the coldest temperature in 50 years IMBY.

Were you still in Bellingham or was that up in Vancouver?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Were you still in Bellingham or was that up in Vancouver?

2021 was my first winter in Vancouver. That was a great cold snap for Bellingham, too.

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

2021 was my first winter in Vancouver. That was a great cold snap for Bellingham, too.

December 2021 was pretty good for much of Puget Sound Region. I’d be satisfied with a repeat. 

[Groundhog]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

2021 was my first winter in Vancouver. That was a great cold snap for Bellingham, too.

That was an incredible year of extremes in the Lower Mainland. Abbotsford bottomed out at -16.9C/1.6F that December and topped out at 42.9C/109.2F in June. That’s closer to a humid continental temperature spread than a coastal or Mediterranean climate. And there was the devastating Pineapple Express that dropped 7+” of rain on the valley floor—never mind the higher totals in the mountains. A banner year indeed to move here.

[Kolk1604]

Pretty cold temps on the EPS. I would say, as of right now, there's a good chance of having a solid cold weekend next week. 

 

[Phishy Wx]

still partially over I see.  garden variety not historic for the most part

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

December 2021 was pretty good for much of Puget Sound Region. I’d be satisfied with a repeat. 

It’s in my top 8 events of my lifetime! 

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice trough on the 06z, but we have definitely seen a trend emerge over the past few runs of a nice trough and then everything shifting east. It’s a trend that began with the much maligned 18z GFS ensembles. Unless we see a dramatic shift back towards a cold solution on the 12z suite we should understand the high end potential is essentially gone. Doesn’t mean some folks won’t see flakes or lows below freezing, but the high end blast potential is quickly escaping our grasp. #december2024

6z eps shifted west 

 

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

still partially over I see.  garden variety not historic for the most part

Such a shock.