January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Blizzard777]

Some read maps and models

i do this

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Wet and the Mountains are buried in snow!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

Which is fine if it was just us weather idiots. But if you look at how many guests are lurking, I think we should be a little more honest. WHICH MEANS if you don't really get what is going on, then just say that. Don't throw around "THAT SUCKED!" just so someone will explain that it didn't.

Just ask "Hey, how does everyone feel about that run? I'm not totally sure what the variations mean big picture." Trust me, no one will judge you. In fact, it tends to make people like you more.

Brian is right, this run is better across the board than the same run at the same time yesterday. We are still solidly on track for some legitimate winter weather (finally).

This forum is basically a parody of weather forums, so....  hyperbole rules!!

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

On the bright side we got through this run without Andrew’s shticky play by play.

[GHweatherChris]

For my backyard this run is better in the shortish term for snow than previous, that's all that matters to me.

[Tanis Leach]

8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Everyone needs to read this.  I just pointed out that tonights run is colder then the one everyone went crazy about last night, but you would think it was way warmer based on some reactions.

And snow totals mean nothing at this point.

This is exactly why I don't start to advertise things until 5 days out. Videos don't trigger until 3 out. 

[umadbro]

Once the rules have been written on how we’re all supposed to react, can we put it in writing so us plebs can act accordingly?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Wet and the Mountains are buried in snow!

Voodoo donuts for Portland.

[Kolk1604]

06z and 18z EPS will be in range soon 

 

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, Lynnwoodweather said:

Anyone remember way back in the day, KIRO had a guy around the same time as Harry Wappler, I think his name was Larry Rice? He would really go all in on long range potentials. He was great

I do!! I still have cassette recordings of his forecasts from about 1986 or 87! I would put my boom box up to the tv and record it

Edited January 4 by MossMan

[Deweydog]

Man they really come out of the woodwork…

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, umadbro said:

Once the rules have been written on how we’re all supposed to react, can we put it in writing so us plebs can act accordingly?

Act how you wanna act, this chit is fun no matter what happens, that's what being a weather weenie is all about!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ensembles won't be this drastic but two runs in a row with warmer temps. Now when we get to the fantasy snow, it's already turned to rain. Not worried rn, but I would be by the 12z. Shades of 2020

[iFred]

I agree with Phishy, this was the rug pull. Like he and Blue Raspberry have pointed out, or will do so agreeably with Phil in about 24 hours, this was the beginning of the end.

Looks great for Bozeman though.

Anyway, the VPS for this server is being handed over to some weird Furry group, so shutting the place down while I sort that out.

 

[Kolk1604]

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

I agree with Phishy, this was the rug pull. Like he and Blue Raspberry have pointed out, or will do so agreeably with Phil in about 24 hours, this was the beginning of the end.

Looks great for Bozeman though.

Anyway, the VPS for this server is being handed over to some weird Furry group, so shutting the place down while I sort that out.

 

Wait what?!

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

I agree with Phishy, this was the rug pull. Like he and Blue Raspberry have pointed out, or will do so agreeably with Phil in about 24 hours, this was the beginning of the end.

Looks great for Bozeman though.

Anyway, the VPS for this server is being handed over to some weird Furry group, so shutting the place down while I sort that out.

 

[Phishy Wx]

how are the ensembles?  you know the important stuff

[Mid Valley Duck]

GEFS at day 6 looks better than the op

[sherwoodor]

42 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This run is significantly worse for the Willamette Valley.

as is tradition...

[Slushy Inch]

People are saying rug pull? From one not as good gfs run?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod Hill is onboard. He’s calling for rain switching over to snow next Wednesday.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

This looks great

[snow_wizard]

Being real I would call this GFS run very good and the GEM outstanding again.  Compared to the normal model vacillation going into these things I think were golden.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nvm. Looks worse for Seattle north. Shades of 2020

Ah yes, the GFS, which has 2m temps at 25 F for Seattle and the precip is rain. Seems quite reasonable. 

[Christensen87]

We’re still OK, everyone! Many more fun runs to come. 

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

People are saying rug pull? From one not as good gfs run?

It's BETTER than the one last night. LOL

It's the best 00z run the GFS has had. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5 Model comparison - GEFS, GFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Ah yes, the GFS, which has 2m temps at 25 F for Seattle and the precip is rain. Seems quite reasonable. 

Didn't we have 25 degree rain last year and get an inch of freezing rain lol

[iFred]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

We’re still OK, everyone! Many more fun runs to come. 

It’s over.

- Everything is trending north and east

- The surface is too warm

- It’ll be too dry when it can snow

- No meaningful overrunning event

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This will mark the beginning of the pull back. 

 

[snow_wizard]

Talk about cold!

[lowlandsnow]

Devastating trends

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This will mark the beginning of the pull back. 

 

Oh brother.

I assume you're kidding.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

It's BETTER than the one last night. LOL

It's the best 00z run the GFS has had. 

Sorry, unless the temperatures monotonically decrease from run to run it is a BUST.

Winter cancel!

[ShawniganLake]

0z gfs showing 30”+ here again.  Massive!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Devastating trends

Looks good to me.

[MWG]

It's like I haven't finished reading a page and there's already a new one. Can't keep up!