January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Front Ranger]

[Deweydog]

DARK BLUE

[Slushy Inch]

Euros mega trough is actually stronger than 12z run from the 3rd

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW, FWIW, last night's CFS has a pretty chilly stretch at the very end of January and the first few days of February. It also brings a backdoor arctic blast through around the 20th of January. 

Weeklies and GEFS ext keep us cool through the end of their runs/beginning of Feb

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is strikingly similar to its 12Z run yesterday.

Yet somehow better 

[Cold Snap]

Euro is looking great!

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is strikingly similar to its 12Z run yesterday.

Indeed. Actually colder, sooner than today's CMC. Polar lobe essentially moving into WA.

[TT-SEA]

Randy gets buried with the arctic front on Thursday into Friday morning... still moving south as well.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

DARK BLUE

Trough breaks the scale on weather bell and TT

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

This looks catastrophic, pipe busting days ahead 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if this has been posted here already or not but the ECMWF is trying to claw it's way back up to .90 skill score while the GFS is tanking again. I'd place my trust the ECMWF over the GFS at this point.

I’d place my trust in the Euro over the GFS any day of the week.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

It has REAL ID, no worries

Real images of Arctic air breaking through the border checkpoint on the 12z 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

[Front Ranger]

Day 9 is gonna be wicked cold.

[Doinko]

Very cold onshore flow for Oregon. Temps are below freezing with snow showers

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

REGIONALLLLLLLLL

[RaleighHillsRunner]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if this has been posted here already or not but the ECMWF is trying to claw it's way back up to .90 skill score while the GFS is tanking again. I'd place my trust the ECMWF over the GFS at this point.

As a non met but data analyst by trade,  I’ve been looking for something like this. Are these types of charts behind a paywall I assume?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

BOOM

[the_convergence_zone]

Now we just need the EPS to back this up and we're golden. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

KING EURO!!

[Kolk1604]

Don't forget the snow! 

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy gets buried with the arctic front on Thursday into Friday morning... still moving south as well.

Even MBY gets 6-7” according to this map! Looking great but I know it’s normally not good to be in the sweet spot this far out.

[iFred]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I saw some rumors that ECMWF is thinking about discontinuing their op run entirely. And it's the best one in the world, yet they still consider it to have minimal value compared with their ensemble products. 

Yeah, but they want to bring an "enhanced ensemble" which would most likely mean that p00 is the new Op.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

TOUCHDOWN!!!

Some location in western WA getting hammered by the Arctic front has been a theme on several runs now. Even more benign runs.

[TacomaWx]

Looking very much like a border hugging event…the California border lol. 

[Phil]

Man that inflection point in the pattern is still there next Tues/Wed. We have a long way to go with this one. Small differences will have massive consequences down the road.

[hawkstwelve]

Just now, RaleighHillsRunner said:

As a non met but data analyst by trade,  I’ve been looking for something like this. Are these types of charts behind a paywall I assume?

No paywall, you can access them at the below links. The GraphCast link doesn't get updated daily like the other one does.

Euro/GFS: https://climatlas.com/temperature/ecmwf_gfs_nh_f120_recent.png

Euro/GFS/GraphCast: https://climatlas.com/temperature/ecmwf_gfs_graph_nh_f120_recent.png

[TigerWoodsLibido]

510 thickness line approaching Eugene/Springfield!

[Slushy Inch]

3 cups of coffee so far to amplify the hype

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is strikingly similar to its 12Z run yesterday.

Euro consistency while the others ((cough GFS)) whaffle 

[Front Ranger]

Whoa.

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, iFred said:

Yeah, but they want to bring an "enhanced ensemble" which would most likely mean that p00 is the new Op.

That makes sense -- historically the value of the op was higher resolution than the ensemble control, but that isn't the case anymore. 

[TT-SEA]

Its in the teens in the middle of the day next Friday with snow on the ground.   This is only 8 days away.  

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Alaskan ridge is merging/pivoting beautifully next weekend. Going to keep us in the freezer.

[Slushy Inch]

Only 10pm and single digits in outlying areas.

[TT-SEA]

Craziness.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

504 thickness line into the Willamette Valley!

[iFred]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How's the graphcast's skill doing?

About the same as the Euro

Graphcast uses the initialization set that the Euro uses for forecasting, so it makes sense why that have the same skill inside three days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Some location in western WA getting hammered by the Arctic front has been a theme on several runs now. Even more benign runs.

These patterns can be horrible for central sound with shadowing, might only see snow with the front. Way to early to know for sure but the cmc shows this as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This one would be memorable for sure.