January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Mid Valley Duck]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Two crucial players. Longitude of NPAC wavebreak/Kona low and downstream wave break associated with eastern us cyclone. Both influence TPV in W-Canada.

One thing for sure is the GFS will absolutely screw this thing up multiple times before the actual (possible) event. 

So what exactly do we want to have happen that gives us the Euro's results vs the GFS?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC ensemble snow so far.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Cold air is poured out pretty far into the ocean, if that verified, that could lead to an awesome snow event

[RentonHill]

Day 8

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I like what I see on the EPS mean so far. But the individual member views aren’t out yet so don’t know what the spread is.

That is another thing to remember about ensembles. A handful of extreme members can tilt the mean

[Front Ranger]

The ICON and JMA are both much more like the GFS. So there's two distinct model camps right now, very far apart.

But of course, we'd all rather have the Euro and CMC in camp good guys.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure I’d frame it that way. The differences between the extreme solutions vs mediocre solutions are very tiny initially. The only “wiggle room” is what proportion of the ensemble members are aligned with each respective outcome.

The smallest of changes will change the entire picture.

So what you’re saying is you still might be right about our January blowtorch?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I'm gonna be in Salem during next weekend, they better get a ton of snow and cold !

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

But, how does the icon look?

Icon looks fine

[High Desert Mat?]

Wish the base of the block was more stable. On ALL models. Especially the hot ones. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Day 8

 

Still no crazy trough on ensemble unfortunately 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Icon looks fine 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC ensemble looking good!

[Slushy Inch]

Control with the mega arctic trough 

[RentonHill]

Day 9

 

 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Do you struggle with reading comprehension? What exactly did I say in that post that offends you so?  

I think he's more alluding to iFred's previous responses to people who said weenies need to stop looking at the clown range OP or whatever.

[OysterPrintout]

Quit giving new members advice let them see random hour 216 maps and get way too hyped and tell their friends and family and look like total morons like the rest of us had to. It's a rite of passage.

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I think he's more alluding to iFred's previous responses to people who said weenies need to stop looking at the clown range OP or whatever.

[HuskyMaestro]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

The ICON and JMA are both much more like the GFS. So there's two distinct model camps right now, very far apart.

But of course, we'd all rather have the Euro and CMC in camp good guys.

The German and Japanese models siding with the American model. Interesting alternate Axis alliance.. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble looking good!

Trended towards the mega trough at least.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have NEVER EVER seen a low of the coast with that magnitude of cold air to work with. Could be some massive instability. This could be a once in a lifetime set up.

Edited January 4 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC ensemble with regional cold and snow.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So what you’re saying is you still might be right about our January blowtorch?

I didn’t call for a blowtorch  but I was wrong about the +EPO.

[runninthruda206]

ITS HAPPENING!!!!!!!

[RentonHill]

Day 10

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Over an inch more snow on this EC ensemble vs last night.

Looking forward to seeing the meteograms!

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

My bad then, I can’t tell with you guys sometimes.  

[DeepFriedEgg]

Now that’s a WTF euro run!!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble with regional cold and snow.

LETS EFFINN GOOO!

ITS A LOCK, ITS COMING! BUY YOUR BREAD, BUY YOUR SNOW SHOVELS, BUY YOUR MILK, BUY YOUR EGGS, BUY HOT COCO MIX, AND BUYYY YOURRR BANANAS!! LETS GOOOOO

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

My bad then, I can’t tell with you guys sometimes.  

I 100% agreed with that post for the record

[Mid Valley Duck]

Really improved EPS run

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A client just messaged me and asked if I was available and I told them I would need about 15 mins...

don't forget to wash your hands

[BLI snowman]

Well... That would be one way to break the January curse.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

So what exactly do we want to have happen that gives us the Euro's results vs the GFS?

I have no idea what the GFS is doing but it generally loves progressive solutions, so in that respect I’m not surprised it’s trying to flatten the blocking.

Best thing anyone can do is ignore that model, even when it shows the solution you want. Because it will change again and again until the last minute.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just checked the local Reddit group. The hype/panic induced by smartphones showing raw model output is underway.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nobody say a goddam thing!

[Norwood]

I would get a lot more done if models only went to 72 hours tbh. 

[Blizzard777]

24 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Insanity.

I’m game !! 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Really improved EPS run

This really illustrates the strong correlation between GOA/Alaskan blocking and deep troughing in the West. The NAO is virtually unchanged, yet massive difference due to what's happening on the Pacific side.

Doesn't mean the NAO isn't playing a role in building/sustaining the pattern, but as far as I can tell, the biggest correlation for the PNW with the NAO is simply that when there's more NH blocking and amplification, that often results in a -NAO...along with -PNA/-EPO, etc.

[iFred]

On 12/7/2023 at 2:14 PM, Phil said:

It will be a total blow torch for the west coast, especially for my home town of Stampede. This should be expected though as the El Nino is unprecedented and is expected to last for at least 70 years.

Hmm.