winterfreak Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Thursday system helps fill in MN a bit more. Keeping my eye on this one for our area especially. Some models have it further south but there appears to be (maybe maybe maybe) some growing consensus for this solution. The EURO ensemble mean seems to consistently show that wave targeting your area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 And now another flip flop the other way !!! GEFS lowering totals and S - GFS operational N and increasing totals. This thing is near the international date line right now!!! Sunday is a transition day between the approaching early week storm and the minor weekend event. Today the impulse that will become next weeks system is still well off in the North Pacific Ocean, roughly near 175W/45N and still 2.5 days from reaching Oregon Washington coasts of the Pacific Northwest by 12z Saturday. Not to underestimate the ability of models to forecast storms, this is still well outside the window of high forecast certainty for track and evolution. Just coming into view on his satellite loop. Think there will be deviations in the track? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-npacwestlarge-13-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 So true...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 I wish I could lock in the GFS. Can't get much better than that. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 7 hours ago, bud2380 said: Kansas is the place to be this run. Another beautiful snow hole over Omaha… lock it in as this has been the pattern 3 winters in a row now here LOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 35 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: And now another flip flop the other way !!! GEFS lowering totals and S - GFS operational N and increasing totals. This thing is near the international date line right now!!! Sunday is a transition day between the approaching early week storm and the minor weekend event. Today the impulse that will become next weeks system is still well off in the North Pacific Ocean, roughly near 175W/45N and still 2.5 days from reaching Oregon Washington coasts of the Pacific Northwest by 12z Saturday. Not to underestimate the ability of models to forecast storms, this is still well outside the window of high forecast certainty for track and evolution. Just coming into view on his satellite loop. Think there will be deviations in the track? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-npacwestlarge-13-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined That’s a long ways out there! Insane to think about really. Just watch when we get inside 84 hours how much models change then too! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 33 minutes ago, Clinton said: I wish I could lock in the GFS. Can't get much better than that. It’s been pretty consistent. We just have to hope,it doesn’t shift north too much. It will still be a heavy wet snow but looks like some cold air a couple days later to turn it into a glacier! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl0719 Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Just look at all the wild vorticity, the possible weakening or splitting of the SPV soon, the major El-Nino, subtropical jet, polar jet, confluence, all the way out to 240hrs on the major models. There is no reason to take any model seriously even within 24-48 hours of a storm onset. There’s just to much happening all at once that no computer/algorithm is ever going to resolve 100% right so just observe, understand a storm is obviously going to occur and see it through. There’s to much we can’t control going on right now it’s not worth the grief of riding every model run 5 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 GEFS jumped south 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 53 minutes ago, ATW said: It’s been pretty consistent. We just have to hope,it doesn’t shift north too much. It will still be a heavy wet snow but looks like some cold air a couple days later to turn it into a glacier! It's exciting, it will be real exciting if it looks like this come Sunday! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 18z Euro Control at hr 144 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Control at hr 144 You're reeling it in! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Not feeling good about a northern shift. Still plenty of time but models have been consistent with the further South solution. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Control at hr 144 Where did you get this run from? I like that run though, and the storm isn't even done in Missouri yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Where did you get this run from? I like that run though, and the storm isn't even done in Missouri yet. This came from Wx Bell but you can also get the 18z Euro on Pivotal Weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 ICON N at HR 126 / compared to 12Z-- like 100 miles N 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 ICON at HR 135 vs12Z -- also quicker to arrive. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 This afternoon's WPC "guestimate" map As @Tom would say "here blizzard-blizzard-blizzard" 5 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 0z ICON: Topeka, KC, Chicago, Lakes 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 I don’t see many significant changes at all so far on GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Really worried this thing ends up too far south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 One thing I do see is the high pressure to the NE of the storm up in Canada is much farther west this run which could cause this to push further NW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 The gfs is my heart attack and celebration every 6 hours my gosh. Back giving me snow. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 GEM is ugly: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 GFS continues the ever so slight increase in totals for up here with that northern precip shield. CMC also looks better for up here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Really worried this thing ends up too far south. The NAO is really tanking, can't rule it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: The NAO is really tanking, can't rule it out. If we can't score in this pattern. I mean... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 About ready to throw in the towel up here. Trends tonight were bad for pretty much the entire state of Iowa. Unless the Euro provides some new optimism, this just doesn’t look like it’s gonna get this far north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Not sure what keeps going on with the GFS and it's ensemble suite. They continue to move in opposite directions. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 00z UKIE is amped. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Pretty amazing when you think about it how good these models are-- even off 100 miles or so at this range. Location of system and distance to the Oregon coast. I know this is not where it will likely come ashore ( probably N of here ) -- but just gives one a better understanding of whats going on here. Baffles my mind. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Yikes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.