hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 12z Euro still looking good for the northern side of the system. Actually upped totals here pretty big vs it's 00z run due to the placement of the heaviest snow. Luckily, CMC seems to be on it's own at the moment. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Euro is coming out a touch slower this run vs. 00z. Not sure if that will have any meaningfull impacts or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, Tom said: You can see that warm lake influence on the 12z GEFS map.... Some big hits in MO/C IL... One thing I don't like seeing is the brutal gradient somewhere near the IN border, which is showing up on most guidance (maybe except for the GGEM). I suppose if anybody in IN pulls out a decent snow, it could be me with how far nw I am. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Looking better for spots in Missouri vs 00z run through Tuesday AM... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Euro looking NW compared to other models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Intriguing: 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Is this a sign of good things? The placement of the H5 Low on the 12z Euro takes it right over the Hot Springs in Arkansas where I stayed this past OCT. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 12z vs 00z Euro storm total comparison... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 If the Euro is right, this trowal will be puking snow on the NW side...#Thundersnow 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Intriguing: Increased amounts in the Wichita to KC area also. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Not bad for MBY. About 4-5" total. Only about 1.5" from the WAA band and then another 2-3" from the main event Tuesday. If this were to nudge just a little more NW then totals will really increase. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Close up... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Tom said: If the Euro is right, this trowal will be puking snow on the NW side...#Thundersnow Chicago looks gold. You should fly back for it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Just speaking overall without regard for anybody's particular backyard, this 12z Euro is a drastic improvement over 00z. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 The Euro trend is northwest at 12z, southeast at 00z. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Just now, Clinton said: Chicago looks gold. You should fly back for it. This ain't the one...I think there are better chances forthcoming...I have to be picky! My dad is flying out of PHX around 1 pm and has an arrival time around 6 or 7pm....ya, I think he's gonna be delayed or cancelled. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Chicago looks gold. You should fly back for it. He might want to wait and see about the follow up storm 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Tom said: This ain't the one...I think there are better chances forthcoming...I have to be picky! My dad is flying out of PHX around 1 pm and has an arrival time around 6 or 7pm....ya, I think he's gonna be delayed or cancelled. 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: He might want to wait and see about the follow up storm So much going on its making it hard to work! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Just now, Hoosier said: He might want to wait and see about the follow up storm I'm at a crosshairs bc that storm is going to be loaded up over here in the mountains! Very cold and lots of juice...I've been doing some reserach and hearing that the winds are intense when strong storms blow through. This one coming up on the weekend on Sunday is supposed to bring 40-50mph wind gusts. This storm has no comparison to what the next weekend system should deliver. I've seen winds up to 80mph near Flagstaff that were reported last year. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: So much going on its making it hard to work! Agreed, as snow is falling from the sky right now in KC. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, KCSmokey said: Agreed, as snow is falling from the sky right now in KC. Getting some flakes and grapple here. Feels and looks like winter. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Flying back to Chi from Florida on 1/8. Glad my Flight is early on Monday and not Tuesday! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, FV-Mike said: Flying back to Chi from Florida on 1/8. Glad my Flight is early on Monday and not Tuesday! Timing is everything...The Snow God's are listening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Worth noting that while this system has finally uncoupled itself from the Aleutian low, it still won't be over land and get more data inputs until it moves into the PNW around 12z tomorrow. I'd imagine we will start seeing a narrowing of potential outcomes over the next 24-36 hours. Of course, that doesn't mean there won't be surprises. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: Getting some flakes and grapple here. Feels and looks like winter. Snowing pretty good clip here in Leawood with snow sticking on the grass and now streets. It’s gently fat wet flakes! Can’t wait to see this x100 on Monday! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said: Snowing pretty good clip here in Leawood with snow sticking on the grass and now streets. It’s gently fat wet flakes! Can’t wait to see this x100 on Monday! Goodluck to us all. It's going to be a beautiful sticky snow! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, Tom said: Timing is everything...The Snow God's are listening! Not here in southeast Michigan. Was lookig pretty good for a half way decent snowfall with this upcoming storm but as always ends up being mostly rain.........what a dissapointment (again). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 12z EPS looking a bit better for many spots vs 00z run... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z EPS looking a bit better for many spots vs 00z run... Double digits showing up in C & NE IL is an interesting trends... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Worth noting that while this system has finally uncoupled itself from the Aleutian low, it still won't be over land and get more data inputs until it moves into the PNW around 12z tomorrow. I'd imagine we will start seeing a narrowing of potential outcomes over the next 24-36 hours. Of course, that doesn't mean there won't be surprises. I saw a report that the Us Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be flying inside the storm today taking samples. If thats the case, that means we will have "true" data which will be loaded into the weather models. By 00z tonight the data suite is likely to be much more accurate than all previous guidance runs. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 12z vs 00z EPS control, keeping in mind these are 10:1 ratios and not Kuchera like the OP maps... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z EPS looking a bit better for many spots vs 00z run... It's better, overall, for many, but it's actually drier for northeast Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: It's better, overall, for many, but it's actually drier for northeast Iowa. Yeah I find it a bit harder to comment on runs on this side of the forum vs when I was on the PNW side. In the PNW, while you can have wildly varying outcomes due to topographical differences (among many others), we were all in a relatively small geographical area so you could generally apply a "this run is better" comment to the majority of members. Over here, we are all much more spread out and often times a "better run" for one person's backyard usually means a worse run for someone else's. Makes it much harder to paint in broad strokes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Yeah I find it a bit harder to comment on runs on this side of the forum vs when I was on the PNW side. In the PNW, while you can have wildly varying outcomes due to topographical differences (among many others), we were all in a relatively small geographical area so you could generally apply a "this run is better" comment to the majority of members. Over here, we are all much more spread out and often times a "better run" for one person's backyard usually means a worse run for someone else's. Makes it much harder to paint in broad strokes. That general idea is always hard for me too. My excitement is your detriment, and visa versa. I don't know if its possible for everybody in the Plains to get a good dump from the same storm. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 974 mb on an ensemble mean at 5 days out is fairly impressive. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 29 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: It's better, overall, for many, but it's actually drier for northeast Iowa. The Euro is backing off on the WAA wave in eastern Iowa. But was stronger with the deformation band. It's possible we whiff on both yet, but right now I'd think 2-4" is going to be our forecast in the Cedar Rapids area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Man. SE MI is heartbreak hotel as usual! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 4 days out still. Ensembles still the way to go. Euro looks nice though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Wonder if we will get some super amped HRRR/RAP runs as they get in range. Happens often but not always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Goodluck to us all. It's going to be a beautiful sticky snow! I’m starting to get a little more excited. Columbia is in a good spot even according to the European model. Just don’t want to see any big shifts. Suppose to get pretty cold Tuesday night so what sticks will be set. Good luck to you to Clinton. You’re not too far from me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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