1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[hawkstwelve]

About time to stop watching the models and start watching radar. 

Here she comes...

Edit: And now the first flakes are flying. Good luck to everyone with this storm!

[ATW]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Maybe I think it will depend on how much wrap around moisture swings through.

The temp,should be dropping some time tomorrow afternoon/evening. I may put a magnet in southern Missouri to pull this storm a little further south.

[Clinton]

Uncle Ukie at 10:1

[ATW]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Uncle Ukie at 10:1

I’ll be curious as to which computer model ends up being most accurate. 

[Clinton]

GEPS in line with the GEFS

 

[winterfreak]

EURO:

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Kuchera-

[hawkstwelve]

Currently under heavy snow and some gusty winds. Already have at least a half inch over the past 45 minutes.  We are going to break our streak of under 1 inch snowfalls this season in a pretty dramatic fashion.

Going to try and get some sleep but heaviest snow will probably be between 4-7am so not sure how much I'll get. 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX increases totals - though this map is from OMX as DMX has't put  theirs out yet --  seems everything got moved a category up and further N-- makes sense with expansion of warnings.  Do not remember ever seen such an expansive area of wind advisories - likely going to be near 30% of the Lower 48 when all offices are updated. Such a pretty map!!!! 

[Grizzcoat]

Just updated from 4-10" to 6-12" with 10.4" in the hourly graph!!! -- and the vaunted "heavy snow" wording!! Tough to do here in Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

KDSM (where I work) went to 7-13" !!!

Going to be a fun shift measuring the snow/ observing the weather tomorrow night for the FAA!

[Grizzcoat]

Expanded Blizzard Warnings for CentNEbWX-

 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX talking potential of TSSN. 

Winter Storm Warning, and
8 to 12" through the rest of the area, with the highest amounts in
southeast to east central Iowa where probabilities of 30-50% exist
for snowfall over 12". This is also the area where guidance
continues to highlight the potential for snow rates of 1-2" per
hour at times. These higher snow rates of around 1"/hour may
extend back towards portions of central Iowa at times as well.
Cannot completely rule out the possibility of some thundersnow
forecast cross sections indicating some negative EPV with forecast
soundings also indicating some elevated instability at times.

[Grizzcoat]

[OKwx2k4]

I may get lucky and spike another little 2 inch round of snow out of this first storm. 

Will be a perfect event to set up the events to follow.

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Just updated from 4-10" to 6-12" with 10.4" in the hourly graph!!! -- and the vaunted "heavy snow" wording!! Tough to do here in Iowa.

It’s beautiful to see forecasts like this, as it’s been way too long since both Nebraska and Iowa have scored a powerhouse winter storm like this… enjoy my friend as Omaha and Des Moines look to both do very well today and tonight. Bring on the thunder snow… looks like it could very well happen for both of us too.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Expanded Blizzard Warnings for CentNEbWX-

 

Well hello Mr. Blizzard 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Grizzcoat]

As I mentioned earlier; the amount of wind advisories is incredible. And obviously; many areas would have them if not all ready covered by a Blizzard/Winter Storm Warnings etc.  At least 1/3 of the lower 48 would be covered if you factor the above in.

[Clinton]

Final model runs of the GFS and Euro before the precipitation starts here.  EAX has me in a 1-5 as of this morning.

6z Euro

[jcwxguy]

Oax talking possible upgrade later to blizzard

 

-Hazards and Impacts:

 

The expected high snow rates later this morning through this

afternoon will reduce visibilities to a half-mile or less with

rapid accumulations on area roads. Snow consistency will

initially be wet, so blowing and drifting snow isn`t anticipated

through this afternoon. As mentioned above, some light icing is

also possible this morning. Later this evening into Tuesday

morning, winds will switch to north and increase to 15-30 mph

with gusts of 35-45 mph. At the same time, falling snow

consistency will become more fluffy, leading to areas of near-

blizzard conditions. We will be monitoring this aspect of the

storm closely and an upgrade to a blizzard warning may become

necessary across portions of the area tonight.

[Grizzcoat]

What is up with the row of counties on the border between KS/OK with no hazards? It's not like its not windy there- but I guess someone decided they didn't warrant it cause its freaking windy there all the time  Just a little odd.

[Grizzcoat]

Congrats to Hawks12 in Sioux Falls--

6" all ready!!!

 

KFSD 081156Z 08009KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV009 M05/M07 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP169 SNINCR 1/6 4/006 P0009 60043 70043 T10501072 11050 21056 55009 RVRNO

[Jayhawker85]

44 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Final model runs of the GFS and Euro before the precipitation starts here.  EAX has me in a 1-5 as of this morning.

6z Euro

So the storm is trending south and our totals are going back up i see! Let the trend continue!!

[Clinton]

Just now, Jayhawker85 said:

So the storm is trending south and our totals are going back up i see! Let the trend continue!!

A nowcast event for you guys for sure.  How far north will the dry slot come?  How wet is the deformation zone?  Those questions seem to be still in doubt.

[Clinton]

Latest SREF

[Tom]

8 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Am I seeing this right?  Short term models diverging(

You and your IA friends are looking GOLDEN...reel in a Big Dog!  This should make the Iowa caucuses interesting...Good luck and CASH in on this Beast!  $$$

As for my Chicago peeps, man, this is the type of storm that appears to be a nail biter.  I think Downtown and points South will changeover but places from say DuPage and western COOK/LAKE county and points west will remain on the snowier side.  The Euro looks great as well as the UKIE which gives me hope that NE IL will remain all snow.  Personally, the dynamics this system will have going for it,  those who are on the NW side of the SLP should be good.  That means you @Jaycee_CHI!  Good luck to everyone.   I know some on here got the rug pulled out from underneath and I feel ya for this happening to you.  It's happened wayyy to many times the past few years living in Chicago and having systems track north!

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

As I mentioned earlier; the amount of wind advisories is incredible. And obviously; many areas would have them if not all ready covered by a Blizzard/Winter Storm Warnings etc.  At least 1/3 of the lower 48 would be covered if you factor the above in.

The strength of the SW winds that blew in up the Mogollon Rim yesterday were absolutely insane.  There is nowhere for the wind to go but upwards and the orographic lift is something else that I've never experienced before.  The snowfall rates were heavenly and it would get dark outside when the heavier bands rolled through as I got up top.  Congrats on this one and good luck!

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Well hello Mr. Blizzard 

Thinking we should get in on the blizzard warning action later today if the forecasts of 40-50 MPH wind gusts tonight and tomorrow actually pan out.

[hawkstwelve]

Looks like round 1 is about done here. Now we await the start of round 2, where they expect an additional 4-8 inches. 

Here's where things officially stand at the end of round 1. 

 

[Sciascia]

One of LOT’s several morning graphics. 4th quadrant represent!

As a guy that works 2pm - 10pm, having the heaviest portion occur when I’m supposed to drive to work and the blowing snow portion when I’m supposed to drive back home makes me consider burning a vacation day.

[Clinton]

12z HRRR is now keeping the dry slot south of KC

 

[Bryan1117]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like round 1 is about done here. Now we await the start of round 2, where they expect an additional 4-8 inches. 

Here's where things officially stand at the end of round 1. 

 

That’s amazing and congrats man, I have a feeling this storm is going to deliver a lot of surprises today! 

[Clinton]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like round 1 is about done here. Now we await the start of round 2, where they expect an additional 4-8 inches. 

Here's where things officially stand at the end of round 1. 

 

Congrats and enjoy it!  Man your place is going to get so cold this week, I wish I could experience that level of cold.  Only for a day though!

[The Snowman]

Big flakes flying here in Omaha, NWS upped forecast to 7-11" (over 8" point & click) ... here we go!

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Congrats and enjoy it!  Man your place is going to get so cold this week, I wish I could experience that level of cold.  Only for a day though!

Yes, me to!  I don't know if I would enjoy that type of cold for several days on end.  I did though, back in Jan '21 I think it was when the PV visited and it got down to -20F or so for a couple nights. My blood has thinned out!

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Final model runs of the GFS and Euro before the precipitation starts here.  EAX has me in a 1-5 as of this morning.

6z Euro

Looks like we’re both in the 1-5. A couple of models are still holding on to higher totals but that’s unlikely. I’m guessing 1-2.

[Pros3lyte]

What an absolute gut punch - just garbage.

 

I’m dead center in the 1-2” region. What a joke. 

[Clinton]

KC peeps and @OttumwaSnomow @Hawkeyeand @bud2380 are going to like the 12z HRRR

[Tom]

Good news for NE IL...the 12z HRRR appears its trend farther SE like the EURO... @Jaycee_CHIriding the line...