1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[bud2380]

I'm not sure why the NWS does dumb things like this.  Look at this forecast for my backyard.  Taken verbatim that's 11-19" of snow, which is just not realistic at all.  Makes no sense.  I'm smart enough to know that, but other people who don't know anything about the weather are going to be telling people we might get 19" of snow.  

 

 

[East Dubzz]

8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm not sure why the NWS does dumb things like this.  Look at this forecast for my backyard.  Taken verbatim that's 11-19" of snow, which is just not realistic at all.  Makes no sense.  I'm start enough to know that, but other people who don't know anything about the weather are going to be telling people we might get 19" of snow.  

 

 

I noticed that with my forecast too. 3-5 and then 8-12. There's actually "around an inch Tuesday night too. 

Can't wait to get 12-20" baby!!!

[bud2380]

Just released Winter Storm Warning update by DVN.  9-14"

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
257 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099-MOZ009-010-
090500-
/O.CON.KDVN.WS.W.0001.240109T0000Z-240110T0600Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Keokuk-Washington-
Jefferson-Henry IA-Van Buren-Lee-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Vinton,
Cedar Rapids, Marengo, Iowa City, Sigourney, Washington,
Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Memphis,
and Kahoka
257 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to
  14 inches. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Tuesday
  afternoon through Tuesday night leading to considerable
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Iowa
  and northeast Missouri.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to midnight CST Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact this evening`s commute, and
  more likely the commutes Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A long duration snow event with two to
  three periods of heavy snow is expected. Amounts up to a foot
  of snow are likely.

[Grizzcoat]

Does seem NW trend in IA with 3Km NAM-

[Grizzcoat]

18Z RDPS--

 

after some time it becomes futile with these models. You most simply- like back when I as D1 athlete == execute your potential.

Maybe why the NWS is good coaches?

[CentralNebWeather]

[East Dubzz]

Only 7-12" here.. BUST

[East Dubzz]

AFD is calling for 7-12, but the the graphic shows this..

[bud2380]

DVN is showing 10:1 or greater ratios.  We're mostly using kuchera here, but perhaps the 10:1 maps will be more accurate.

 

The WAA tonight will be fed by unseasonable precipital water
feed(PWATs) of 0.60 inches 150-200% of normal for this time of year.
Fcst soundings and comparing them to upstream trends suggest top-
down deepening saturation, with low to mid level saturation depths
up over H6 mb late tonight through at least late Tue morning,
including the -12 to -18C dendritic layer. The incoming amount of
lift by a closed off low pressure complex utilizing this saturation
depth by rule should wring out up to double the amounts of the PWAT
values, thus 0.60 goes to 1.2 inches of liquid equivalent. Most of
it probably being snow that translates into a foot with just base
10:1 LSRs, and that may be low with probably LSR`s varying from 10
to 12:1 along prime forcing/saturation swaths. THey will trend
higher to 13:1 or higher later in the event with in-wrapping cold
conveyor into departing def zone, but that will be past the time of
the occurrence of the heavy snow producing processes

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

AFD is calling for 7-12, but the the graphic shows this..

I'm not seeing that graphic.  Wonder if they took it down, because there's no effing way.  LOL.  

[Grizzcoat]

DMX downplaying which makes sense-- TS south are robbing moisture. But does mention  the "B" word.

Donavan is a very  good forecaster. fwiw.

Good Luck to those East!

• • FAQ
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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
 

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---

000
FXUS63 KDMX 082100
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
300 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 256 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Key Messages:

- High impact winter storm event for the area through Tuesday
- A quick hitting light snow on Wednesday
- Another potential winter system around Friday
- Arctic cold arriving this weekend

Intense low pressure system is located over the Oklahoma panhandle
this afternoon with an inverted trough extending northward into the
Siouxland. Heavy snow has already occurred on the west side of the
inverted trough including the Sioux Falls area. The theta-e
advection band lifting to the northeast of the system is leading to
an area of snow lifting into southwest and central Iowa. Overall
general model guidance is running slightly too warm at the surface
leading to too warm of wetbulb temperatures, suggesting a mix of
rain/snow through the rest of the afternoon though thus far all
precipitation in the region has been in the form of snow.

The area of low pressure will move east this evening then will lift
northeast towards St. Louis after midnight. Expect the theta-e
advection snow to lift through the area with the potential for a
lull then a transition to deformation snow. There remains a lot of
uncertainty with this system as there will be a vast amount of
convection in the warm sector of this system to the south of Iowa.
What impacts this has on the amount of moisture that is available in
the cold sector is in question and at the very least, it should
result in some disruption in the moisture lifting north in the warm
conveyor. In addition, the forcing into Iowa is "messy" and not
focused through a good dendritic layer as would be preferred for a
very heavy snow event. The current regional radar is very splotchy
and does not contain a large homogeneous region of good snowfall
rates.

Snow crystal morphology is not clear as well with broad generally
modest forcing through a large layer of the column and through
broad temperature range. Utilizing the Cobb method, it makes
selecting a dominant crystal type and thus snow ratios difficult and
generally will blend down to something near the 13 to 1 climatology.
While there will be periods with dendrites and higher ratios, the
increasing wind of greater than 20 kts tends to reduce SLRs by 25%
and higher winds can lower it further due to crystal fragmentation.
A study by NWS MPX also shows that snow events with 0.5" or more of
liquid precipitation typically results in SLRs closer to 10 to 1.
Overall, suspect that snowfall totals as an area, are too high,
perhaps by several inches. There is some chance for slantwise
convection with CSI present that could lead to the higher amounts by
the chances for a widespread 10+ inch snowfall with a messy system
like this is not common. On that note, CAMs are very hot on QPF with
this system an are now driving higher NBM totals. Again, the CAM
output is quite likely not realistic.

Blowing snow is another aspect as the cold advection arrives on
Tuesday. With the strong cold advection, good momentum transport of
max mixed layer winds typically occurs. The max mixed layer winds
are in the 30 to 35 kt range, which in itself is not great for
blizzard conditions. The pressure gradient across the state is high
though and is approaching a magnitude of 50 ubars/km and could help
the wind to eclipse the max mixed layer wind. Will need to monitor
this in case the wind gusts do start to eclipse 40 kts as that would
help push near blizzard conditions.

[tStacsh]

Interesting 18Z runs.  A little colder and the LP now goes 30 miles southeast of my backyard, whereas 12z had it over my house.   Keeps me in snow longer....

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

AFD is calling for 7-12, but the the graphic shows this..

So now it's 11-16" in Cedar Rapids?  Jeez.  I'm still going with 6-8".

It will be interesting to see what the average ratios are.  The models are consistently showing ratios in the good snow band only around 7 to 1, pretty awful.  The NWS graphics suggest a ratio above 10 to 1.

[bud2380]

Snowfall Amounts: This event, if it pans out like projected would be
a once in a 10 or 12 year single snow storm event for the area.
After looking at a multitude of methods old and new(some listed
above), have gone with widespread 10-15 inches along and generally
west of a line from Keosauqua IA, to just east of the Quad Cities,
and to Freeport IL. 8-14 inches would be a general cover of most of
the CWA, except for a sharp gradient drop-off to 3-7 inches along
and southeast of a line from Carthage in west central IL, to
Monmouth IL, and to Princeton IL. These lesser areas may get more
rain-snow mix with bouts of WAA at times tonight, and a midnight
decrease or temporary dry slot as well if current storm track
verifies.

[bud2380]

GFS

[East Dubzz]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm not seeing that graphic.  Wonder if they took it down, because there's no effing way.  LOL.  

It's from a tweet, which looks to still be up. 

But like I said.. it doesn't even match up with their WSW. 

 

[East Dubzz]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Snowfall Amounts: This event, if it pans out like projected would be
a once in a 10 or 12 year single snow storm event for the area.
After looking at a multitude of methods old and new(some listed
above), have gone with widespread 10-15 inches along and generally
west of a line from Keosauqua IA, to just east of the Quad Cities,
and to Freeport IL. 8-14 inches would be a general cover of most of
the CWA, except for a sharp gradient drop-off to 3-7 inches along
and southeast of a line from Carthage in west central IL, to
Monmouth IL, and to Princeton IL. These lesser areas may get more
rain-snow mix with bouts of WAA at times tonight, and a midnight
decrease or temporary dry slot as well if current storm track
verifies.

Man, I hope the NWS nails this one. Would make them look pretty smart with the snow totals they're putting out there. 

[bud2380]

4 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

Man, I hope the NWS nails this one. Would make them look pretty smart with the snow totals they're putting out there. 

The only model I have seen that is showing these totals is the HRRR and the seldom discussed NSSL.  Both CAM models.  So IF they are expecting a significant amount of convection, perhaps these models are on to something.  But color me skeptical. 

 

[bud2380]

21z RAP just hammers SE Iowa and Western/Northern IL. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Heavy band over my area with winds gusting over 50 mph. Whiteout at times in town. I guess it is not good in the country. I80 now closed Grand Island to Lexington, 75 miles. Highway 30 closed Lexington to Kearney. Sounds like more east west roads may be shut down tonight. Wind is supposed to increase, if that is possible. 

[bud2380]

Here's our storm.  

 

[East Dubzz]

8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

21z RAP just hammers SE Iowa and Western/Northern IL. 

 

LOCK IT IN AND DON'T LET IT LEAVE

[Jayhawker85]

24 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS

LETS GET THIS STARTED!!!

[Hawkeye]

28 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS

So even if we get a solid 10:1 ratio, the GFS says Cedar Rapids only gets 8".  Meanwhile, DVN says 11-16".  That just seems way overdone.  I'm still only expecting 6-8".  Tomorrow's wind will certainly not help ratios.  I ALWAYS get garbage ratios when the snow is blows around and compacts in my yard.

[Grizzcoat]

DMX not backing down as much as I thought-- must be banking on the defo band cuz this WAA band sucks-

[East Dubzz]

Both Quad Cities and Des Moines with 11-16" for me? Hmmm... 

I still think 5-10" makes sense, but I hope the professionals are right on this one. 

[Clinton]

Just now, Jayhawker85 said:

LETS GET THIS STARTED!!!

Just saw that thundersnow was being reported west of Wichita,  I have 2.5 inches on the ground and I am shocked at how quickly it accumulated on the roads given it was 43 at 8am at my place.  Lots of melting going on with warm surface and temps right at freezing.  I feel lucky the rain/snow line is only about 40 miles south of my place.

[hawkstwelve]

Radar is looking rather anemic up here. It's a good thing the WAA band from earlier this morning overperformed because otherwise my opinion on this storm would have been very, very different as I would only be looking at 1-2 inch totals so far. Hi-res models insist that things will pick up a bit this evening and have remained steady on adding an additional roughly 3 inches but looking at the radar, I'm not so sure. 

[Clinton]

21z HRRR

[winterfreak]

Underwhelming first half. Bulk of heavy precip was east. Deformation band is going to have to crush us to justify the WSW.

[gabel23]

Been in the money zone all day. I'm waiting patiently for the winds to kick up and raise snow ratios. Heavy wet 9" of snow and still counting! 

[Black Hole]

HRRR still trending up, now showing about 1" here. Definitely an underestimation on models for the wraparound portion of this storm. I still assume <1" but there is some hope again. 

[Hawkeye]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

21z HRRR

Models continue to fade southeast.

[mlgamer]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Just saw that thundersnow was being reported west of Wichita,  I have 2.5 inches on the ground and I am shocked at how quickly it accumulated on the roads given it was 43 at 8am at my place.  Lots of melting going on with warm surface and temps right at freezing.  I feel lucky the rain/snow line is only about 40 miles south of my place.

Up to now this has been pretty much of a dud here. It started similar to you where the rain changed to snow and quickly accumulated about an inch even on the roads with a temp of 37. Since then the temp has never been below 35 and only mostly light snow off and on.

Looking at radar makes me think you should do pretty good. Better than here I would bet. Either way enjoy!

[Clinton]

Just now, mlgamer said:

Up to now this has been pretty much of a dud here. It started similar to you where the rain changed to snow and quickly accumulated about an inch even on the roads with a temp of 37. Since then the temp has never been below 35 and only mostly light snow off and on.

Looking at radar makes me think you should do pretty good. Better than here I would bet. Either way enjoy!

That dry slot I bet has eyes for me.  I hope the deformation band delivers I think you will do very well.

[Clinton]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

Models continue to fade southeast.

This has a wild storm to track even the weather service offices seem to be behind atm.  Good luck I hope you guys can get 6+ out of this.

[Minny_Weather]

The dry air has filled in and I'm finally getting some better sized flakes. I haven't had the means to measure, but I'd be surprised if I've gotten a half inch since it began snowing at noon. 21°F.

[hawkstwelve]

Of course, just as I say the radar is looking bleak the band fills in overhead and it's snowing at a very good clip again. 

[mlgamer]

Interesting...civil emergency messages...one in the OK panhandle and one in SW KS.

 

OKC025-090600-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
CIMARRON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
502 PM CST MON JAN 8 2024

...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CIMARRON COUNTY...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
CIMARRON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE CIMARRON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS REQUESTING FOR ALL
CITIZENS IN THE COUNTY TO SHELTER IN PLACE DUE TO DANGEROUS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALL MAJOR ROADWAYS IN AND OUT OF CIMARRON
COUNTY REMAIN CLOSED. STRANDED MOTORISTS ARE BEING REPORTED ALL
OVER THE COUNTY. IF STRANDED, EMERGENCY VEHICLES MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO REACH YOU DUE TO IMPASSABLE ROADWAYS.

$$

---

KSC175-090200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Civil Emergency Message
Kansas EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY Dodge City Kansas
Relayed by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
459 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS SEWARD COUNTY...

The following message is transmitted at the request of the Kansas
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY Dodge City Kansas.

THE SEWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS REQUESTING FOR ALL
CITIZENS IN THE COUNTY TO SHELTER IN PLACE DUE TO DANGEROUS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALL MAJOR ROADWAYS IN AND OUT OF SEWARD
COUNTY ARE NOW CLOSED. STRANDED MOTORISTS ARE BEING REPORTED ALL
OVER THE COUNTY. IF STRANDED, EMERGENCY VEHICLES MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO REACH YOU DUE TO IMPASSABLE ROADWAYS.

[bud2380]

Snow has begun at my house! Just pulled in and flakes started to fall