bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 12z HRRR at noon 18z HRRR at noon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: My wife just sent me the same thing that someone at work sent her, and that this 17 year old kid who runs the site "has never been wrong" LOLOL. Not never been wrong, I said he got the last 3 storms dead on. Including the stuff last night that no one else jumped on till it was happeing The kid is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 Quite the dynamic cooling signal on the 18z HRRR for tomorrow. Rain/snow line just plunges over IN back into IL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 done for nebraska only Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Just now, Madtown said: Not never been wrong, I said he got the last 3 storms dead on. Including the stuff last night that no one else jumped on till it was happeing The kid is good. No, my wife's co-worker told her that this kid has never been wrong. I'm sure he does a fine job, my opinion is that he's a little too aggressive with his snow fields on this one, gets too far up into MN with accumulating snow and the heaviest bands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 HRRR is prob “seeing” the dynamic cooling now as the storm nears “showtime” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 totals seem to be trending down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, Madtown said: Well. Don't k own who this guys is, but he has nailed the last 3 snow events so I'm going with it. Midwest weather on FB. I don't believe this includes Sunday lake stuff in MI quite a difference from our local weather in Michigan where they have 10-16". double that of this map. Interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, tStacsh said: quite a difference from our local weather in Michigan where they have 10-16". double that of this map. Interesting. Lake on Sun? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Madtown said: Lake on Sun? They said through sat. Additional snow Sunday. I do FEAR we get low partied and dry slotted here. I'm in the 14+, but doesn't seem like the models show that now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 wowzers.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 Yeah, I'd probably upgrade the entire watch area to a warning in the LOT cwa. Could make a case for the highest snow amounts to be northern/central areas of the watch and the highest wind gusts to be in the southern part of the watch area. Might be an overlap area somewhere around Kankakee-Lake IN-Porter counties that gets a good amount of snow and the strongest winds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Nam coming in HOT- ( juiced) - appears S *** edit maybe not juiced, but S. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Nam coming in HOT- ( juiced) - appears S *** edit maybe not juiced, but S. Not juiced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 NAM came south quite a bit in eastern Iowa anyways. Iowa City getting destroyed this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, gosaints said: Not juiced. For his area it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, gosaints said: Not juiced. It is S.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Just now, Grizzcoat said: It is S.IA I am only comparing with other CAM/short term models.... It is in line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Like I mentioned earlier- the trowal feature on this system is going to be hard to figure out-- likely last minute. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 I'm gonna have to go ahead and lock in the NAM right now. Game over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 I actually think the late night setup across IOWA is gonna be quite the nowcast event... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 It's difficult to believe any particular run when we are seeing changes like this from one run to the next. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: It's difficult to believe any particular run when we are seeing changes like this from one run to the next. Eh, it's easy enough. Just believe the run that you like best. That's what I do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Also gotta remember even though it's basically a nowcast- dealing with the 18z NAM. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Just another absolute crush job again in my area. This is insane; both storms so far as we get closer to the event the amounts keep going up and up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 We have been upgraded to a Warning. Not surprised. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and high winds expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Michigan. * WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult and perhaps impossible by Friday night. Blowing snow may significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and cause power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Near blizzard conditions are possible. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: It's difficult to believe any particular run when we are seeing changes like this from one run to the next. I've about had it with the NAM. It's even likely screwing up the waa snow here (too warm), and that's like 12 hours away. Into the garbage it goes lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 solid forecast. Been awhile since this: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 3kNAM actually has less in Cedar Rapids compared to the 12z run, half as much as the regular NAM. There is still plenty of noise. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 At this rate the NAM and HRRRR, the two models who were insistent on a more northern solution and had me with 12+ inches as late as last night, are going to have me missing out almost completely. They are now among the most southern solutions for out here. These supposed "models" are a complete joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: At this rate the NAM and HRRRR, the two models who were insistent on a more northern solution and had me with 12+ inches as late as last night, are going to have me missing out almost completely. They are now among the most southern solutions for out here. These supposed "models" are a complete joke. I was just going to write something on this. Most models are imo- too fine scaled down to grids that are impossible to define. Especially your Cam's / 3km NAM etc. I mean - come on what exactly are we trying to do here? I like the ICON. It did very well with last system and the scale/grid is about as much as you can expect ( as with other globals) Trying to define something as nearly infinitely complex as the atmosphere in chaos down to 2-5 miles is nuts. I don't care how good the physics are. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 My P&C is now changed to a Winter Storm Warning, LOT has not updated the map yet. They must not be buying the rain that the NAM and other models are showing. EDIT: Map just changed, along with new advisory south towards Kankakee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 LOT went advisory for Kankakee-Lake-Porter for 3-6" and wind gusts up to 50 mph. I figured they would just convert the watch to a warning even with the borderline amounts given the wind and the fact that nobody in the area has experienced conditions even remotely like that yet this winter. Possible there is a sizable gradient across those counties though with northern parts being more likely to reach actual warning criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 EPS Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Of course Macomb County not included the Winter Storm Watch.................................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 NW IA -- BLIZZARD WARNING- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Whoa! Oakland County in the watch now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.