January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[bud2380]

12z HRRR at noon

 

 

18z HRRR at noon

 

[Madtown]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

My wife just sent me the same thing that someone at work sent her, and that this 17 year old kid who runs the site "has never been wrong" LOLOL.  

Not never been wrong, I said he got the last 3 storms dead on.  Including the stuff last night  that no one else jumped on till it was happeing

The kid is good.

[Hoosier]

Quite the dynamic cooling signal on the 18z HRRR for tomorrow.  Rain/snow line just plunges over IN back into IL.

[jcwxguy]

done for nebraska only

 

[bud2380]

Just now, Madtown said:

Not never been wrong, I said he got the last 3 storms dead on.  Including the stuff last night  that no one else jumped on till it was happeing

The kid is good.

No, my wife's co-worker told her that this kid has never been wrong.  I'm sure he does a fine job, my opinion is that he's a little too aggressive with his snow fields on this one, gets too far up into MN with accumulating snow and the heaviest bands.  

[Tom]

HRRR is prob “seeing” the dynamic cooling now as the storm nears “showtime”

[tStacsh]

totals seem to be trending down

[bud2380]

[tStacsh]

12 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Well. Don't k own who this guys is, but he has nailed the last 3 snow events so I'm going with it. Midwest weather on FB. I don't believe this includes Sunday lake stuff in MI

 

quite a difference from our local weather in Michigan where they have 10-16".  double that of this map.   Interesting.  

 

[Madtown]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

quite a difference from our local weather in Michigan where they have 10-16".  double that of this map.   Interesting.  

 

Lake on Sun?

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Lake on Sun?

They said through sat.  Additional snow Sunday.    I do FEAR we get low partied and dry slotted here.  I'm in the 14+, but doesn't seem like the models show that now.  

 

[Madtown]

wowzers..

[Hoosier]

Yeah, I'd probably upgrade the entire watch area to a warning in the LOT cwa.  Could make a case for the highest snow amounts to be northern/central areas of the watch and the highest wind gusts to be in the southern part of the watch area.  Might be an overlap area somewhere around Kankakee-Lake IN-Porter counties that gets a good amount of snow and the strongest winds?

[Grizzcoat]

Nam coming in HOT- ( juiced) - appears S *** edit maybe not juiced, but S.

[gosaints]

7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Nam coming in HOT- ( juiced) - appears S *** edit maybe not juiced, but S.

Not juiced.  

[bud2380]

NAM came south quite a bit in eastern Iowa anyways.  Iowa City getting destroyed this run. 

[Money]

2 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Not juiced.  

For his area it is 

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Not juiced.  

It is S.IA

[gosaints]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

It is S.IA

I am only comparing with other CAM/short term models.... It is in line

[Grizzcoat]

Like I mentioned earlier- the trowal feature on this system is going to be hard to figure out-- likely last minute.

[East Dubzz]

I'm gonna have to go ahead and lock in the NAM right now. Game over. 

[gosaints]

I actually think the late night setup across IOWA is gonna be quite the nowcast event...

[Hawkeye]

It's difficult to believe any particular run when we are seeing changes like this from one run to the next.

[jcwxguy]

[East Dubzz]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It's difficult to believe any particular run when we are seeing changes like this from one run to the next.

Eh, it's easy enough. Just believe the run that you like best. That's what I do.

[Grizzcoat]

Also gotta remember even though it's basically a nowcast- dealing with the 18z NAM.

[gabel23]

4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Just another absolute  crush job again in my area. This is insane; both storms so far as we get closer to the event the amounts keep going up and up! 

[tStacsh]

We have been upgraded to a Warning.  Not surprised.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and high winds expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
  central Michigan.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult and perhaps
  impossible by Friday night. Blowing snow may significantly
  reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the
  Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree
  branches and cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Near blizzard conditions are possible.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It's difficult to believe any particular run when we are seeing changes like this from one run to the next.

I've about had it with the NAM.  It's even likely screwing up the waa snow here (too warm), and that's like 12 hours away.  Into the garbage it goes lol

[tStacsh]

solid forecast.  Been awhile since this:

[Hawkeye]

3kNAM actually has less in Cedar Rapids compared to the 12z run, half as much as the regular NAM.  There is still plenty of noise.

[hawkstwelve]

At this rate the NAM and HRRRR, the two models who were insistent on a more northern solution and had me with 12+ inches as late as last night, are going to have me missing out almost completely. They are now among the most southern solutions for out here.

These supposed "models" are a complete joke.

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

At this rate the NAM and HRRRR, the two models who were insistent on a more northern solution and had me with 12+ inches as late as last night, are going to have me missing out almost completely. They are now among the most southern solutions for out here.

These supposed "models" are a complete joke.

I was just going to write something on this. Most models are imo- too fine scaled down to grids that are impossible to define. Especially your Cam's / 3km NAM etc. I mean - come on what exactly are we trying to do here?

I like the ICON. It did very well with last system and the scale/grid is about as much as you can expect ( as with other globals)

Trying to define something as nearly infinitely complex as the atmosphere in chaos down to 2-5 miles is nuts. I don't care how good the physics are.

[shakjen]

My P&C is now changed to a Winter Storm Warning, LOT has not updated the map yet. They must not be buying the rain that the NAM and other models are showing. EDIT: Map just changed, along with new advisory south towards Kankakee

[Hoosier]

LOT went advisory for Kankakee-Lake-Porter for 3-6" and wind gusts up to 50 mph.  I figured they would just convert the watch to a warning even with the borderline amounts given the wind and the fact that nobody in the area has experienced conditions even remotely like that yet this winter.  Possible there is a sizable gradient across those counties though with northern parts being more likely to reach actual warning criteria. 

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

EPS

[uticasnow]

Of course Macomb County not included the Winter Storm Watch..................................

[Grizzcoat]

NW IA -- BLIZZARD WARNING-

[WinterSquall23]

Whoa! Oakland County in the watch now!