January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Tim right now 

I have no idea what will actually happen.  The RGEM could be right.    I am just explaining what I am seeing in the models.   

Dewpoint could be -30 in Seattle tomorrow afternoon but that won't make it snow given the upper levels.   But it sure could make a mess of freezing rain.

Deformation zone position is everything on Wednesday for snow.

[Dave]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

25.8 

24.1

 

[TacomaWx]

Nice day up in snoqualmie at work. Glad I got to enjoy the snow up here on Thursday and today since there wasn’t much in Tacoma 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea what will actually happen.  The RGEM could be right.    I am just explaining what I am seeing in the models.   

Dewpoint could be -30 in Seattle tomorrow afternoon but that won't make it snow given the upper levels.   But it sure could make a mess of freezing rain.

Deformation zone position is everything on Wednesday for snow.

Lol I honestly agree with what you’re pointing out. The models show freezing rain you’re just stating what it shows. 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Tim right now 

Mossman has a stomach virus apparently and Tim's over there armchair Meteorologist'n

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea what will actually happen.  The RGEM could be right.    I am just explaining what I am seeing in the models.   

Dewpoint could be -30 in Seattle tomorrow afternoon but that won't make it snow given the upper levels.   But it sure could make a mess of freezing rain.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Mossman has a stomach virus apparently and Tim's over there armchair Meteorologist'n

Thing is... Randy could still be the big winner.   If the deformation zone is where the RGEM shows then that is what will happen!

[MossMan]

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

While we’re all grasping at straws, anyone know when the 0z RGEM runs? I don’t normally check it. 

It's starting around now I think

[TT-SEA]

Oh boy... 00Z RGEM just initialized on WB!

Biggest RGEM run of the year?

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh boy... 00Z RGEM just initialized on WB!

Biggest RGEM run of the year?

By far 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

By far 

There have been so many... we are always watching the RGEM.  

[TT-SEA]

Nice thing about tracking an event that starts in 24 hours is that as soon as the run starts you have an answer.

[RayRay]

It starts out as snow on my weather app…

[TT-SEA]

RGEM is a little north tomorrow evening.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful sunset tonight. 

[TT-SEA]

RGEM is very close to ECMWF and NAM for low position on Wednesday morning.  

[KingstonWX]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea what will actually happen.  The RGEM could be right.    I am just explaining what I am seeing in the models.   

Dewpoint could be -30 in Seattle tomorrow afternoon but that won't make it snow given the upper levels.   But it sure could make a mess of freezing rain.

Deformation zone position is everything on Wednesday for snow.

I never know who is inhaling more copium, you or me, but i think we are at like 50/50 at this point in all my time on this forum. For whatever that is worth. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

I never know who is inhaling more copium, you or me, but i think we are at like 50/50 at this point in all my time on this forum. For whatever that is worth. 

Had to look that up... can't disagree.

[van city]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

RGEM is very close to ECMWF and NAM for low position on Wednesday morning.  

Still gives Mossy Man snow

[TacomaWx]

37/21 today, overall the lack of snow was kinda sad…but we got a truly 1989/1990 kind of Arctic blast experience with this. Just a major awesome cold wave and some of the coldest weather I’ve experienced IMBY. The absolute vodka cold this weekend was wild. 
 The Port of Tacoma and the beaches freezing was a once in a 25 year event basically. The picture I took of the frozen waterfront didn’t even seem real. Just a very legendary event IMO. I know some people care more about snow but this was awesome to experience. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Beautiful sunset.

 

Ended up with a 28/18 day. Really a gorgeous day with snow on the ground, sunny skies and light to moderate east winds. MLK would have been proud.

[TT-SEA]

RGEM did shift north from its 18Z run... but its just so wet and seems disorganized.   

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

37/21 today, overall the lack of snow was kinda sad…but we got a truly 1989/1990 kind of Arctic blast experience with this. Just a major awesome cold wave and some of the coldest weather I’ve experienced IMBY. The absolute vodka cold this weekend was wild. 
 The Port of Tacoma and the beaches freezing was a once in a 25 year event basically. The picture I took of the frozen waterfront didn’t even seem real. Just a very legendary event IMO. I know some people care more about snow but this was awesome to experience. 

In other words, LAME!

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh boy... 00Z RGEM just initialized on WB!

Biggest RGEM run of the year?

Biggest RGEM run of the year...SO FAR!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

In other words, LAME!

I know most people will remember the lack of snow…but it was unlike anything I’ve experienced in my lifetime. The fact that things keep trending colder and colder in a huge way within 24-48 hours was insane. Usually quite the opposite. The cold was the real deal! 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

In other words, LAME!

 

[TT-SEA]

I think the problem is that the RGEM 10km has absolutely terrible terrain resolution.    Just running the 925mb loop and comparing it to another model like the ECMWF makes that so obvious.   Probably not a good tool in this situation.    Its really bad with terrain.  

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

37/21 today, overall the lack of snow was kinda sad…but we got a truly 1989/1990 kind of Arctic blast experience with this. Just a major awesome cold wave and some of the coldest weather I’ve experienced IMBY. The absolute vodka cold this weekend was wild. 
 The Port of Tacoma and the beaches freezing was a once in a 25 year event basically. The picture I took of the frozen waterfront didn’t even seem real. Just a very legendary event IMO. I know some people care more about snow but this was awesome to experience. 

indeed, legendary cold is awesome

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the problem is that the RGEM 10km has absolutely terrible terrain resolution.    Just running the 925mb loop and comparing it to another model like the ECMWF makes that so obvious.   Probably not a good tool in this situation.    Its really bad.  

Compare that to what its supposed to look like.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

RGEM did shift north from its 18Z run... but its just so wet and seems disorganized.   

or its staging a coup

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I know most people will remember the lack of snow…but it was unlike anything I’ve experienced in my lifetime. The fact that things keep trending colder and colder in a huge way within 24-48 hours was insane. Usually quite the opposite. The cold was the real deal! 

Most people also think the Bachelorette is good TV.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Compare that to what its supposed to look like.

I wasn't kidding.....

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I wasn't kidding.....

Stop analyzing a complex situation?   Nah.   That is what we do here.

[LowerGarfield]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And for PDX. My wife works 7a-7p tomorrow at Providence Hospital in NE Portland, she's thinking about just volunteering to pull an all nighter. 

Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,
Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
937 AM PST Mon Jan 15 2024

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of two tenths to one half
  of an inch.

* WHERE...In Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Area. In Washington,
  Greater Vancouver Area.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice.
  Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the evening commute.

and of course my wife tells me that my brother-in-law and his wife in Vancouver, WA are thinking of going tomorrow via the gorge to beat the bad weather in Eastern WA wed-fri. Just can't win.

[LowerGarfield]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hood River is on the short list for best towns in Oregon. Unfortunately you pretty much need to be a millionaire to live there. 

My cousin bought a bunch of acreage in the hills above Hood River. He's got a nice job but his dad had a farming ranch about 2hours north of SF so he knows how to work.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Most people also think the Bachelorette is good TV.

I don't watch TV for the most part. 

[TT-SEA]

Good news is the high resolution RGEM is starting now and goes through 48 hours so it will cover most of this event. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

In other words, LAME!

[TacomaWx]

I will say as someone who does water treatment for a living the cold is a nightmare. All of our systems suffered significant ice related damage up at Highway 18…along with many other jobsites in the region. My boss estimates atleast 20,000$ of damages so far. Lots of exploded pipes and valves. Spent all day pointing heaters at PVC pipes full of ice.