MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Several school issues this morning mostly due to busted pipes. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BLI snowman Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 Down to 10 degrees, a new low for the event. 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 12Z ICON is south... less snow for SW BC and more snow for NW WA and shows some snow in King County on the back side of the precip shield tomorrow afternoon. 4 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Here is high resolution 12Z NAM. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Up to 28 at SEA... 25 here this morning with a decent east wind. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Low resolution 12Z RGEM 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 13.8* currently in Yelm. We got above freezing yesterday, for about 3 hours. Schools are 2 hours late, but I am kinda hoping they weenie out and just close em again. Not likely, but one can hope. We still have quite a bit of snow on the ground, so things thawed a bit yesterday then froze hard again.... Edit: HA! Ask and ye shall receive! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andstorm Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 hours ago, Tanis Leach said: The transition event: Technical info: wider margin of error and higher high end totals than local TV stations is due to me showing a late rise above freezing (1 pm median estimate at PDX) The models are notoriously bad scouring out cold air too quickly. Also see description for 2nd disclaimer. Oh and that scenario where the east wind gradient doesn't get killed, in case it didn't get drilled in, it's unlikely, but non-zero. If it happens only small patches of freezing rain would remain since the cold pool would still retreat east of the Cascades. Good stuff! Will the snow cover in the Columbia Basin impact the cold pool at all. I’m seeing temps Thursday hovering relatively close to freezing so just curious what sort of risk there is for a mini reload. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Low was 20.2. Currently 22.8 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Low 16F and DP 10 nice and dry. Let’s see how increasing cloud cover goes for temps today and how long the central WV holds onto the gorge influence 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Clouds. It’s coming. Also explains my temp increase from 20 to now 23 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 per NWS Spokane: I like the sound of this There are three big factors that make this a whopper of a winter storm for Wednesday: (1) strong frontogenesis and moist isentropic ascent, (2) cold temperatures and moderate to strong lift within the dendritic growth zone resulting in climatologically high snow ratios (13-18 to 1 across a large portion of the region), and (3) back to back upper level disturbances that will string the snow out over a long duration (i.e. late tonight through Wednesday night). The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index indicates snow amounts that are anomalous for this region and time of year. The main area for this anomaly stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin into the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene areas. This is quite impressive considering that we are in the heart of the winter season and anomalously high snowfall amounts will mean some big snow totals when all is said and done. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Temp is exploding this morning, 25 now! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Up to 28 at SEA... 25 here this morning with a decent east wind. Second coldest morning Here of the event at 15! 16 in bremerton. Crazy. This is going to be dynamic couple days coming up, especially with how much cold air gets pulled in behind this system tomorrow night. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Hmmmm... I see the GFS is now keeping the ZR threat around PDX into the weekend. Has it below freezing in most of the North valley and even parts of the west central valley on Thursday night.... 4 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Wild couple of days 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Sunriver Snow Zone Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 SPECTACULAR Sunrise! 12 Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88" Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"! 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 As Jim pointed out, last nights CFS was interesting. Basically a two week period of chilly to cold weather at the end of January to about February 10th. Then everything shifts east late in February. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Dropped to 19F this morning making this 5 days with lows in the teens. I still have no idea what is going to happen here over the next few days. Models range from 0-15" but maybe the NWS refusing to issue any sort of warning or advisory for Skagit is a good sign. 3 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Excited to start seeing ENSO tank. 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Excited to start seeing ENSO tank. Strong Nino > Strong Nina I can get behind that 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Wild couple of days Snow map is a shift south from the 6z! Yay! 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Blizzard777 Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 Good morning all ! Pipe in garage gave way! Double insulated pipe and it still froze . So now I’m an official victim of this event. 18* this morning dp is 7 so this ice won’t be going anywhere for a bit Good luck to those in the north and south on the incoming ! God Speed and I’m sitting this one out 9 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andstorm Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Wild couple of days This suggests a reload of freezing rain for portland area Thursday. Very unlikely but would be a nightmare scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 NWS bumped up my totals to 6-8 inches. Still thinking 3-5 might be more reasonable but still looks good. Son now has a 5 day weekend because his bed is covered in a yucky mess and he never came to find me. If school is cancelled tomorrow, it will probably be a remote learning day. 3 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Wild couple of days Ice taking down those transmission lines like Quebec in 98, would mean a regional power crisis. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Blizzard777 said: Good morning all ! Pipe in garage gave way! Double insulated pipe and it still froze . So now I’m an official victim of this event. 18* this morning dp is 7 so this ice won’t be going anywhere for a bit Good luck to those in the north and south on the incoming ! God Speed and I’m sitting this one out Sorry about the pipe! I'm with you on this one, sitting out until at least the end of the month, or whenever, always on standby. Going anywhere warm soon? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Tim what do the dewpoints look like tonight when precip arrives? 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said: Good morning all ! Pipe in garage gave way! Double insulated pipe and it still froze . So now I’m an official victim of this event. 18* this morning dp is 7 so this ice won’t be going anywhere for a bit Good luck to those in the north and south on the incoming ! God Speed and I’m sitting this one out Argh. That sounds fun. The pipe that runs from the house to the hose bib at the front of the garage was my biggest worry so I put one of those radiator heaters in the garage to keep that wall warmish, otherwise I’m almost certain it would have popped. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 10 hours ago, MossMan said: I was really looking forward to that beast…That never came. Meanwhile there was that freak storm in August on a Saturday that knocked out power to almost everywhere south of Mt Vernon and north of about Lynnwood. Was that the same year? A lady I worked with in our Tulalip cafe had their daughter's bday party planned but no one showed up. For the windstorm that everyone missed, it was funny. The day before, a beggar near EVCC was asking for money to take the train to 'escape the storm.' I was waiting to catch the Camano Express. Only problem was it was after the last connection to Everett Station (to catch the Empire Builder which I think had already left). I was like lol no. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArcticAirmassLover Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 20F and cloudy right right now at Eugene. Have a dewpoint of 15F (!), biggest dewpoint to temp gap of this whole event. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 11 hours ago, bainbridgekid said: Pretty much all models were predicting one of the strongest windstorms in Seattle history with a strong low tracking over the Olympics and bent back occlusion roaring right through the Puget Sound. NWS warned accordingly and had pie on their face when the low deepened more than modeled, tracked further offshore, and it was hardly even breezy. The public lost a lot of their confidence in Mets after that and ever since the NWS has been extremely gun shy about predicting anything severe until it’s actually started happening. They were hyping it as the storm of the century if I recall correctly. Was living on Camano at the time. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said: Meanwhile there was that freak storm in August on a Saturday that knocked out power to almost everywhere south of Mt Vernon and north of about Lynnwood. Was that the same year? A lady I worked with in our Tulalip cafe had their daughter's bday party planned but no one showed up. For the windstorm that everyone missed, it was funny. The day before, a beggar near EVCC was asking for money to take the train to 'escape the storm.' I was waiting to catch the Camano Express. Only problem was it was after the last connection to Everett Station (to catch the Empire Builder which I think had already left). I was like lol no. That was the biggest off season windstorm I can ever remember! Was in Sun Lakes taking advantage of the big rollers that day, came home the next day to a mess and no power. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 I’m a bit surprised at how many issues there have been with frozen and broken pipes. I can’t imagine how bad it would be with a 1950 or 1969 type event. With singles digit or even negative lows for 7-10 days at a time. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 10 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: I guess I'm 'spoiled' by NWS Spokane. sure they occasionally bust, but are generally good forecasters. that's a shame for an area as large as Seattle to suffer if that's truly the case? As I mentioned in the other thread. NWS Seattle doesn't have a winter weather page with advance snow maps/ice forecasts despite them being responsible for the west slopes of the cascades and coast range. All the other NWS offices in Oregon, Washington, Montana and Idaho have one. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Pretty crazy to see some models showing .5 inch of freezing rain over here. Thursday afternoon and evening looking like another event possible again depending how much cold air get pulled in behind this trough tomorrow. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 12z GEM 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 The latest HRRR has the ice storm arriving in the Southern Willamette Valley by 2pm, PDX Metro by 4pm and Puget Sound by 7pm. Stay off the roads if you can guys. Going to be a wild and crazy afternoon/night! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Excruciatingly close track for a puget sound snowstorm. Instead likely to be a mixed mess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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