January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Cloud]

House is kinda warm this evening. Got the fan running. It’s January y’all, what is this crap? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Cloud said:

House is kinda warm this evening. Got the fan running. It’s January y’all, what is this crap? 

The new normal.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Looked like a nice sunset via the mid mountain webcam at mt bachelor. Right now typing this from mt bachelor parking lot because I'm going to try to make it up south sister tonight and tommorow morning (which is the mountain in the middle of the pic). Might get turned around if those clouds continue, but it seems like they'll probably go away by sunrise, maybe... either way it'll be worthit for the adventure. If it refreezes tonight, it'll definitely be a mountain of ice, not getting any powder turns tommorow.. wish me luck!

 

On a more weather related note, 00z gfs is looking decent so far, seems like it is close to great. Definitely a step in the right direction from its previous runs.

[Cloud]

Had to look it up… regret it. Record of 57 was shattered today. Disgusting. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got up to 69F so that smashes the old record of 63F set back in 1976.

Getting really tired of this shitt.

Maybe next winter we won't have any 60F burgers.

[Slushy Inch]

Mid section of the Goa ridge is sliced to pieces while troughing is still stalled over the northwest, odd.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I've been pretty much everywhere else in the state.  Even Metaline Falls, which probably almost nobody has been to.

I have.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Looked like a nice sunset via the mid mountain webcam at mt bachelor. Right now typing this from mt bachelor parking lot because I'm going to try to make it up south sister tonight and tommorow morning (which is the mountain in the middle of the pic). Might get turned around if those clouds continue, but it seems like they'll probably go away by sunrise, maybe... either way it'll be worthit for the adventure. If it refreezes tonight, it'll definitely be a mountain of ice, not getting any powder turns tommorow.. wish me luck!

 

On a more weather related note, 00z gfs is looking decent so far, seems like it is close to great. Definitely a step in the right direction from its previous runs.

Thanks for specifying which mountain is South Sister because 90% of our Puget Sound posters wouldnt know.

Edited January 29 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty awesome GFS run. 

[SnowySeeker50]

High of 61f today, currently 55.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS kind of got it's act together on this run.  Noice!

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

High of 61f today, currently 55.

59/49 here for the day.  Just avoided the 60.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty awesome GFS run. 

I'm starting to get some confidence on this.  Snow is obviously totally up in the air, but I think some lowland snow has a decent chance of happening.

[snow_wizard]

This frame on the GEM shows the real pivotal point on this thing.  If that cold trough gets squeezed southward we get pretty cold if not what cold we get is delayed and not as good.

[snow_wizard]

GFS squeezes it south.

[snow_wizard]

I think an ICON / GFS blend would give us the best possible outcome.  Such a delicate balance on this thing.

[snow_wizard]

It's quite remarkable how sustained the sub -5 850s are on the GFS.  Can't wait to see how the ECMWF looks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All eyes now turn to the EURO. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All eyes now turn to the EURO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That’s talent! 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of similarities to January 1998.  Arctic blast happened on the same days and SEA just broke record high today from 1998.

This year's blast was way more severe though.  Much longer lasting as well.

[MossMan]

Was just sitting out on the deck for a bit…Absolutely unbelievable right now! Temp is up to 60.4 degrees, truly feels like a July evening at that temp with the frogs singing. Crazy to think just a couple weeks ago we were in the single digits. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This year's blast was way more severe though.  Much longer lasting as well.

True. That was a pretty wet month though too.

[MossMan]

Wow…Quite the interesting month it has been temperature wise. 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This year's blast was way more severe though.  Much longer lasting as well.

Well... the upper level aspect of the arctic blast 2 weeks ago barely lasted 24 hours.   It was retreating at the 850mb level almost immediately.    I thought it was really interesting that it happened on the same day in 1998. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF following the GEM as it often does.

[Mercurial]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It would be weird if I was obsessively posting in a Maryland/Virginia weather forum. 

I certainly don't blame him.  The only Mid Atlantic wx forum I'm aware of is so heavily moderated that it has all the charm of a Siberian Gulag, without the Siberian wx.

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF following the GEM as it often does.

Gfs moved towards how past euro runs looked while euro gem move to how gfs used to look what the hell

[Mercurial]

Went to the Skyles Lake overlook again last weekend.  The trail is so icy now I don't think I could make it.  At least we had a solid two weeks of nice snowglobe landscapes.

[MossMan]

Stumbled upon this YouTuber just now. I’m assuming this was in Oregon. 

 

[snow_wizard]

This is a frustratingly tight situation for the models to resolve at this point.  Probably won't know for at least two more days how this possible cold snap will play out.

Meanwhile...no doubt this Nino is living on fumes now.  No coming back from this.  The only warmth left is a sliver just under Nino 1+2.  Once that erodes the Nino will collapse in spectacular fashion IMO.

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is a frustratingly tight situation for the models to resolve at this point.  Probably won't know for at least two more days how this possible cold snap will play out.

Meanwhile...no doubt this Nino is living on fumes now.  No coming back from this.  The only warmth left is a sliver just under Nino 1+2.  Once that erodes the Nino will collapse in spectacular fashion IMO.

 

Has most recent graphcast run?

[snow_wizard]

I have to say I'm a bit worried with EPS and Graph Cast both biffing it on the first trough vs the 12z runs.  The situations is so delicate that things could easily trend good tomorrow though.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Has most recent graphcast run?

Just doesn't quite get it done.  No matter what we are still going to see some freezing mins, but the deep cold is getting more questionable at this point.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Down to 49 here with mostly clear skies and a light easterly breeze. Pretty curious what the next few days will hold for the Portland area, temp wise. I feel like it’s unlikely we skate through this torch without putting up some pretty crooked numbers at some point.

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just doesn't quite get it done.  No matter what we are still going to see some freezing mins, but the deep cold is getting more questionable at this point.

Was “deep cold” ever on the table to begin with? I didn’t see much of that on guidance or analogs.

Generally speaking, a strong STJ and AK vortex/+EPO isn’t going to produce much cold anywhere in the lower-48, especially in a strong niño February with a re-strengthening PV.

[Meatyorologist]

I am definitely under the throes of seasonal affective disorder. I'm looking at old pictures of mine back on warm, bright summer afternoons, and I'm feeling this deep yearning to bask in the warmth. Definitely looking forward to Spring and the changing seasons, probably more so than I ever have by this point in the year. I just hope we get a more typically beautiful summer this year, with lots of 72/48 type days and burning morning clouds, thrown in with some 85Fish days and 65Fish days; instead of the torching of the last decade. That sounds heavenly.

I should note I am still rooting for COLD and SNOW, as long as we can still get it! Cold anomalies are always a blessing in our new era of warming, and my itty bitty weenie heart would root for a foot of powder in the dead of July. But dreaming of mostly sunny afternoons, a steady breeze out of the west, some residual tufts of stratocumulus catching the afternoon's hazel tones, and a field of altocumulus castellanus ominously gliding over it all promising a dazzling display of nocturnal thunderstorms.... 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty crazy run to run inconsistency on the ECMWF particularly for low temps.  This probably isn't decided yet.  This situation is very delicate and can turn on a dime.

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I am definitely under the throes of seasonal affective disorder. I'm looking at old pictures of mine back on warm, bright summer afternoons, and I'm feeling this deep yearning to bask in the warmth. Definitely looking forward to Spring and the changing seasons, probably more so than I ever have by this point in the year. I just hope we get a more typically beautiful summer this year, with lots of 72/48 type days and burning morning clouds, thrown in with some 85Fish days and 65Fish days; instead of the torching of the last decade. That sounds heavenly.

I should note I am still rooting for COLD and SNOW, as long as we can still get it! Cold anomalies are always a blessing in our new era of warming, and my itty bitty weenie heart would root for a foot of powder in the dead of July. But dreaming of mostly sunny afternoons, a steady breeze out of the west, some residual tufts of stratocumulus catching the afternoon's hazel tones, and a field of altocumulus castellanus ominously gliding over it all promising a dazzling display of nocturnal thunderstorms.... 

I hate to tell you, but it will only get worse as you get older.  That is why really gloomy springs have become just about my least favorite thing.  No question that cold clear nights have always been my favorite in that season though with some sharp troughs and brisk cold fronts thrown in.

As for summer...I am old enough that I remember plenty of them that had tons of sunshine with temps far lower than what we have seen this century.  We had a lot more days with low clouds until 11am or so and then sun the rest of the day.  I think the expanded 4CH is entirely the culprit for the recent hot summers.

As an aside.  I have always been fascinated by the year 1949.  Not only did it lead to a great winter, but the year itself just had spectacular weather.  Tons of sunshine, out of season frosts, and just flat out enjoyable weather.  Some places in the western lowlands had frost on the 4th of July and then again on September 12th, with a highly unusual number of lows in the 30s (and some frost) in May and June.  Then of course the record setting low temps in mid October that year.  Just amazing!

[snow_wizard]

50 minutes ago, Phil said:

Was “deep cold” ever on the table to begin with? I didn’t see much of that on guidance or analogs.

Generally speaking, a strong STJ and AK vortex/+EPO isn’t going to produce much cold anywhere in the lower-48, especially in a strong niño February with a re-strengthening PV.

I just meant chillier 850s than shown on tonight's runs.