February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The 5.5 inches of snow melted into my rain guage and measured .44 rain. We had right around 10.1 ratio for that last event. 

Quite a bit less QPF than you were supposed to get.  Nice amount of snow though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We will see about later this month but I feel like something decent will happen in the western lowlands at least for this late in the season. I also am feeling a big winter like 2010-2011 next year. 

That was a big Nino to Nina transition. Could have been better down this way in the lowlands, but it was very legit above 1000’. Wasn’t living up here yet, but there was a big snow in this area in late December and it stayed cold through the first week of January. Drove up here about a week after the snow had fallen and it was all still on the trees. The late February through late April period would have been epic up here too. Silver falls had a 27/10 on 2-26-11, also a 26/14 with the November blast. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Terrain bleed. But I am glad for some good ol’ fashioned Andrew flow.

It actually gets legitimately cold on a lot of members.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wasn’t around for May 2010, but I know there was accumulating snow up here that month. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was a big Nino to Nina transition. Could have been better down this way in the lowlands, but it was very legit above 1000’. Wasn’t living up here yet, but there was a big snow in this area in late December and it stayed cold through the first week of January. Drove up here about a week after the snow had fallen and it was all still on the trees. The late February through late April period would have been epic up here too. Silver falls had a 27/10 on 2-26-11, also a 26/14 with the November blast. 

That winter was great in this area.  Very cold with significant snow in November, a transition snow event in January, and then the big late Feb cold wave which had snow.  It dropped to 8 here November which is the coldest since I've lived here.  We narrowly missed a huge snow event in January which would have made the winter incredible.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wasn’t around for May 2010, but I know there was accumulating snow up here that month. 

Not to mention that 2010 and 2011 were actually somewhat cool summers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That winter was great in this area.  Very cold with significant snow in November, a transition snow event in January, and then the big late Feb cold wave which had snow.  It dropped to 8 here November which is the coldest since I've lived here.  We narrowly missed a huge snow event in January which would have made the winter incredible.

I was living down in the lowlands of the willamette valley then. It could have been better, but it was the last time we had accumulating snow in November in the willamette valley and sub freezing November highs. Got well into the teens with the February thing, and a little snow. Parts of the valley, especially around Corvallis did well for snow with that one. 

[snow_wizard]

Very legit snow threat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not to mention that 2010 and 2011 were actually somewhat cool summers.

Summer 2011 was great. The September 2011 heatwave was a bummer, but compared to what we’ve seen in September since then, wasn’t that bad. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was living down in the lowlands of the willamette valley then. It could have been better, but it was the last time we had accumulating snow in November in the willamette valley and sub freezing November highs. Got well into the teens with the February thing, and a little snow. Parts of the valley, especially around Corvallis did well for snow with that one. 

The November thing was certainly the highlight and it was pretty Washington centric.  The February event was quite noteworthy for so late in the season.  Really amazing how many times we've gotten cold in late Feb since.

I would call that a top 5 winter for me this century.

[snow_wizard]

Also....talking about major Nino to Nina transition winters you cannot forget 1983-84 and 1998-99.  Both had major Arctic blasts in December.  Both were lacking in the snow department, but that's a detail thing.  With snow cover those months would have delivered some really impressive numbers. 2016-17 was also a significant Nino to Nina transition and it was a very solid winter.

[Phishy Wx]

27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The 5.5 inches of snow melted into my rain guage and measured .44 rain. We had right around 10.1 ratio for that last event. 

10:1 would have been 4.4" that closed to 11:1

[DeepFriedEgg]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

10:1 would have been 4.4" that closed to 11:1

Actually, it would be 12.5:1 

[snow_wizard]

4 solid days of wind.  I'm ready for it to stop.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

10:1 would have been 4.4" that closed to 11:1

I know,  I figured I lost some.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very legit snow threat.

Could you post that but for Portland? 

[Tyler Mode]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Could you post that but for Portland? 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I had a 4.0 in calculus in high school I know how percentage works lol. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I had a 4.0 in calculus in high school I know how percentage works lol. 

That's bloody impressive.   I had to work my arse off and use cheat sheets (which were allowed) to get a 3.0 in pre Calculus.  I was proud of that though, because I totally bombed out on the pre test for the class, and the professor thought I was out of my depth.  My brain is not wired for algebra or calculus.  

[High Desert Mat?]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Also....talking about major Nino to Nina transition winters you cannot forget 1983-84 and 1998-99.  Both had major Arctic blasts in December.  Both were lacking in the snow department, but that's a detail thing.  With snow cover those months would have delivered some really impressive numbers. 2016-17 was also a significant Nino to Nina transition and it was a very solid winter.

Yes 2016-2017 was the best winter of my life. Hopefully a repeat next winter. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I had a 4.0 in calculus in high school I know how percentage works lol. 

You good bro we just playin'

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Actually, it would be 12.5:1 

thanks dr arithmetic

I just woke up 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Yes 2016-2017 was the best winter of my life. Hopefully a repeat next winter. 

The only winter that had a major transition that was somewhat of a dud was 1973-74.  1972-73 was a very atypical strong Nino winter so that could be part of it.  The only other good example I can find looking way back is 1889-90, and that winter was top tier.  Long periods of abnormal cold with lots of snow.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

16 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

 

Wtf?!? I guess it's coming? 49/50 ensembles having over an inch of snow is a pretty good sign, it's pretty crazy that they're that confident at that range. 

 

Are any of them showing some subfreezing highs?

[Tyler Mode]

4 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Wtf?!? I guess it's coming? 49/50 ensembles having over an inch of snow is a pretty good sign, it's pretty crazy that they're that confident at that range. 

 

Are any of them showing some subfreezing highs?

Not for 12 days lol

[Doinko]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The only winter that had a major transition that was somewhat of a dud was 1973-74.  1972-73 was a very atypical strong Nino winter so that could be part of it.  The only other good example I can find looking way back is 1889-90, and that winter was top tier.  Long periods of abnormal cold with lots of snow.

Even then, January 1974 was pretty great. 7 subfreezing highs in a row at PDX, and Salem got down to 6 degrees

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What was the big event that season?

There were multiple big events and a near miss on another big event as well. November 2010 had the 2nd most impressive Arctic blast of the century behind January 2024 as well as a few inches of snow IMBY. 
 January 2011 was a near miss for a bigtime, February 2019 like pattern but in January. Went north last minute and we ended up getting an overrunning inch of snow and then 50s the next day. 
 January miss ended up being forgiven by a pretty significant late season blast around Presidents’ Day 2011. Some very cold late season temps. Snow was hit or miss though. Lots of places around the central sound got 0-Tr. Had 7” of snow IMBY. Overall that was a very good winter here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's bloody impressive.   I had to work my arse off and use cheat sheets (which were allowed) to get a 3.0 in pre Calculus.  I was proud of that though, because I totally bombed out on the pre test for the class, and the professor thought I was out of my depth.  My brain is not wired for algebra or calculus.  

And I do terrible at spelling but I'd trade that any day for my math skills. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Not to mention that 2010 and 2011 were actually somewhat cool summers.

At OLM, June/July 2011 was cooler than any other June/July this millennium, except 2001. There was only one July from 1967-1985 that was truly cooler than 2011 (1977, as 1976 was virtually tied with 2011).

There was also an exceptional run of cool Junes from 2007-2012. Five out of six ran below the long term average at OLM. It was the coolest such stretch for June since the 1950s.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There were multiple big events and a near miss on another big event as well. November 2010 had the 2nd most impressive Arctic blast of the century behind January 2024 as well as a few inches of snow IMBY. 
 January 2011 was a near miss for a bigtime, February 2019 like pattern but in January. Went north last minute and we ended up getting an overrunning inch of snow and then 50s the next day. 
 January miss ended up being forgiven by a pretty significant late season blast around Presidents’ Day 2011. Some very cold late season temps. Snow was hit or miss though. Lots of places around the central sound got 0-Tr. Had 7” of snow IMBY. Overall that was a very good winter here. 

Oh yah Nov 10 was awesome.  The wind was very strong here with many large trees down everywhere. To this day its the strongest north wind besides Dec 1990 I've experienced. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

There were multiple big events and a near miss on another big event as well. November 2010 had the 2nd most impressive Arctic blast of the century behind January 2024 as well as a few inches of snow IMBY. 
 January 2011 was a near miss for a bigtime, February 2019 like pattern but in January. Went north last minute and we ended up getting an overrunning inch of snow and then 50s the next day. 
 January miss ended up being forgiven by a pretty significant late season blast around Presidents’ Day 2011. Some very cold late season temps. Snow was hit or miss though. Lots of places around the central sound got 0-Tr. Had 7” of snow IMBY. Overall that was a very good winter here. 

There were some benchmark cold temps with the late Feb event in 2011. I believe it had one of the coldest high temps on record that late at PDX, and the low of 5 that OLM saw on 2/25 was by far the latest they have ever gotten that cold. Next closest was the low of 5 on 2/6/89.

EDIT: The low of 18 that PDX saw on 2/26 is the latest they've ever gotten that cold. Next closest was last year on 2/25.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

There were some benchmark cold temps with the late Feb event in 2011. I believe it had one of the coldest high temps on record that late at PDX, and the low of 5 that OLM saw on 2/25 was by far the latest they have ever gotten that cold. Next closest was the low of 5 on 2/6/89.

Yeah, if the January 2011 event had worked out…then it would’ve been the winter of the century past 2008-2009 and 2018-2019. 2 really good events and a near miss on a 3rd one. That miss in 2011 was pretty sad was forecast to be a week straight of snow and cold. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

 

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

3 day EPS control snowfall when the hammer drops.

That’s an Arctic Blast signature with all the snow. The first go around will be a warning shot with cold onshore flow. But at day 10 of the 12z EURO it shows Arctic air making its way down into Central BC. The ingredients are there for some really cold air to make its way down into the PNW. It remains to be seen however if it gets watered down since we are getting close to March now.

[SnowySeeker50]

[Doinko]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There were some benchmark cold temps with the late Feb event in 2011. I believe it had one of the coldest high temps on record that late at PDX, and the low of 5 that OLM saw on 2/25 was by far the latest they have ever gotten that cold. Next closest was the low of 5 on 2/6/89.

EDIT: The low of 18 that PDX saw on 2/26 is the latest they've ever gotten that cold. Next closest was 2/16/56.

PDX got close last year, a low of 18 on 2/25

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

55 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Not for 12 days lol

So they're pretty confident in it just being cold onshore flow, rather than a arctic outbreak. You can always have some fun snowy mornings/nights with cold onshore flow in the lowlands, but afternoons just become a slushy mess. Better than nothing I guess.

 

This setup could be good for me but nothing amazing, because in these types of setups the cascades block most of our precip, so we never end up with a large snowstorm. 2-6" of fluffy snow every couple of days is what I expect with this upcoming pattern.

[westcoastexpat]

On 2/16/2024 at 11:47 AM, Front Ranger said:

I'm guessing the Dec-Feb anomaly map for this winter will end up looking pretty similar to those other ones. The second half of February looks to end up notably cooler than the first for the eastern half of the nation.

Agreed. This winter overall has been very similar to most strong Ninos.

[TT-SEA]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That mountain has to be the most snow starved 4k elevation area in Washington state. Strange