February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

UW-WRF has the central Sound almost completely shadowed on Monday -- westerlies are too strong unfortunately. More likely to need sunglasses than a snow shovel. 

@MossMan gets some action and the mountains do well. 

I would bet we see some Vancouver Island convergence form Monday afternoon and this can feed a lot of moisture into the north sound.  Could be an active afternoon and evening with possibly multiple convergence zones. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I was mostly speaking for the second and potential third punch to focus on ensembles. The OP at that range is too variable to know where that trough will set up

Agreed.  Looking most likely we end up with some cold SW flow later next week with the trough axis staying offshore.  Could be some overnight slushy accumulation in heavier showers 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Agreed.  Looking most likely we end up with some cold SW flow later next week with the trough axis staying offshore.  Could be some overnight slushy accumulation in heavier showers 

For my area to score I'll need it to move onshore. Can't be having SW flow. Not looking likely at this point, but not off the table yet. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Meh. Breezy. Nothing crazy. 

Oh well. I would almost rather see a big windstorm than a sloppy inch. However if we are talking at least 4 to 8” of snow then I would be cool with that over wind. 
Or how about both!! 

[snow_wizard]

Solid cold signal for this far out on an ensemble mean.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

For my area to score I'll need it to move onshore. Can't be having SW flow. Not looking likely at this point, but not off the table yet. 

SW flow can be pretty good up here as I’m usually just north of the Olympic rain shadow.  I would probably at least see snow in the air with overnight accumulation if 850 temps are around -5 or -6C

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

For my area to score I'll need it to move onshore. Can't be having SW flow. Not looking likely at this point, but not off the table yet. 

The sw flow is really never much of an issue here with these events. I'm blocked really good from them 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Solid cold signal for this far out on an ensemble mean.

Operational run looks similar.    But the focus of activity is farther south at that time.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The sw flow is really never much of an issue here with these events. I'm blocked really good from them 

Its my worst shadow flow. I won't see a drop unless it is a STRONG storm. 

[Hawksfan2008]

This will work for EPSL Monday night  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Operational run looks similar.    But the focus of activity is farther south at that time.  

How is this similar? OP is WAY more offshore. That difference means everything for a winter setup for us. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

How is this similar? OP is WAY more offshore. That difference means everything for a winter setup for us. 

Its a very similar configuration.    You are taking a blended mean too literally.  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

This will work for EPSL Monday night  

Dam I didn’t see that. Yes pscz is very much still in play.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Oh well. I would almost rather see a big windstorm than a sloppy inch. However if we are talking at least 4 to 8” of snow then I would be cool with that over wind. 
Or how about both!! 

Wouldn’t be totally shocked if you got both.  4-6” in your area Monday into Tuesday could work out if things align properly.  Also wouldn’t surprise me to see a strong low track across Vancouver island next week.  Or a strong front mid week with gusty SE winds ahead of it or a strong westerly surge behind it.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

This will work for EPSL Monday night  

This is a big change from the 00Z run... much more favorable for King County.

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Operational run looks similar.    But the focus of activity is farther south at that time.  

Yuck. Looks like it’s splitting a bit. With the cold stuck up north and energy diving down towards California 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a big change from the 00Z run... much more favorable for King County.

That looks like what I would expect this time of year given the setup. A line of convergence showers over Vancouver island (probably late Monday afternoon) feeds some moisture into the north sound.  Probably a second area of convergence tries to form off of the olympics further south. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its a very similar configuration.    You are taking a blended mean too literally.  

Sure but OP is one of what 30 runs? Small changes mean a lot for us. 

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

This will work for EPSL Monday night  

I'd really like to believe it.

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

This will work for EPSL Monday night  

Chilly at my house! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks good for King County on Monday evening too... increase from 00Z run.  

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF does bring back some King County snow late Monday afternoon and evening.

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looks good for King County on Monday evening too... increase from 00Z run.  

Mid levels look cold enough for sure.  Surface temps are shown in the low 30s by sunset.

[Doinko]

15 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

Since I wasn't on here a year ago, I'll post my pics from last year's snow. Oh, and crazy me ran 8.5 miles the day after. 9" in Sherwood that storm fell, 7" is what was settled (I did hourly measurements and noted some loss to blowing). The night pics were about 1/3 through (2 am)

It was only 1 of 3 times I pulled an all lighter (grad night and a flight to Paris that got delayed was the other 2). 

Also, I believe a good chunk of you called a snowstorm, but using my forecast videos, it did feel odd trying to go off alone compared to the TV forecasts (but not here), and sticking to my guns after E. Metro got the deformation band/convergence zone in saying Washington/NE Yamhill County will have their turn from 11-7. In all fairness, while I forecasted that convergence zone/deformation band well ahead of time (48 hours), I underdid precip maxes (said 3-7" in the main zone with the 48 and 24 hour notice, 4-9" with isolated to 12" was my day of adjustment) and completly missed the east metro area (even though I was more aggressive than TV, saying 1-3" vs the consensus 0-1"). Never used the snow maps on that event since on a stalled low, they're useless anyways. A good blip in the middle of (then) depression. 

 

Edit: recap video I made: 

 

 

It was really a great storm. And the sun + subfreezing high on Feb 23rd was great. Also I enjoyed watching your forecast videos going up to that event, they were very detailed and informative

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am at peace. Whatever happens will happen. 

[ShawniganLake]

Some overrunning snow next week up around Vancouver BC. They tend to hold on to the cold pretty well in that setup. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Euro onboard with GFS OP run offshore. Likely to see ensembles shift that way. Probably the more likely solution. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Euro onboard with GFS OP run offshore. Likely to see ensembles shift that way. Probably the more likely solution. 

Sucks for everyone 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows the action shifting to CA late next week like the other models.    But also shows a little snow in that period.

[snow_wizard]

King County does well on this ECMWF run.  Some decent cold later in the run too.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows the action shifting to CA late next week like the other models.    But also shows a little snow in that period.

I'm a fan of this run.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty nippy mins on day 9.

[ShawniganLake]

Mossman might get his wind next week. Euro has a sub 980mb low into northern Vancouver island.  Wouldn’t take much of a shift south to increase wind Storm potential 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

King County does well on this ECMWF run.  Some decent cold later in the run too.

No longer looking great for my area. I’m going to take down the Christmas lights today. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Euro onboard with GFS OP run offshore. Likely to see ensembles shift that way. Probably the more likely solution. 

Not really.

[snow_wizard]

Really solid cold here.

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a big change from the 00Z run... much more favorable for King County.

D@mn Tim.  I don't even work anymore and I couldn't post as much as you if I was getting paid to do it!

[snow_wizard]

The meteograms show a foot of snow for SEA over the next 10 days. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

D@mn Tim.  I don't even work anymore and I couldn't post as much as you if I was getting paid to do it!

I am good at multi-tasking! 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The meteograms show a foot of snow for SEA over the next 10 days. 

Just stupid.