March 2024 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Happy St Patrick’s day. The official H/L yesterday was 53/30 there was 0.04” of rainfall there was 26% of possible sunshine. It was another windy day with the highest wind speed of 47MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 45/27 the record high of 78 was set in 2012 the record low of -4 was set in 1949 the most rain fall of 1.47” was in 1919 the most snowfall of 7.5” fell in 1973. The most on the ground was 15” in 1904. Last year the H/L was 49/27 and there was 0.35” of rain fall.  

[Clinton]

Below normal temps the next couple of days for the first time this month.  The hard freeze which should be no big deal this time of year will likely damage the fruit trees that are flowering and or leafed out atm.  Hopefully next weekends storm will be a good rain producer.

[Tom]

The ULL continues to spin directly overhead this morning as I was awoken by showers and water dripping off the tile roofs.  Nice looking little spin on radar earlier this morning when I saved the gif.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Light snow has been falling for most of this morning but hasn't amounted to much.

An appetizer for what's to come?

[Minny_Weather]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Light snow has been falling for most of this morning but hasn't amounted to much.

An appetizer for what's to come?

Same deal here. On and off snow showers. The most recent burst was actually a decent one, lasted about 10 minutes and resulted in a slight bit of accumulation.

[hawkstwelve]

Snowfall mean on the EPS and GEFS continues its march upwards.

[james1976]

Really haven't paid close attention to the models lately cuz its been so boring. Just checked the GFS and Thursday and next Sunday looking interesting. That one a week out looks like a powerhouse for someone. NWS also talking about both. I have a feeling winter is finally gonna arrive just in time for spring.

[gosaints]

Anyway we get moisture will be excepted

[Minny_Weather]

AFD from MPX:

Quote

Active weather is set to return in the form of snow on Thursday. As
with any weather system 3-4 days out there is a level of uncertainty
that remains present, however the expected atmospheric scenario
will be favorable for potential accumulating snow. Guidance
advertises a dip in the 500 mb flow over Montana and the Dakotas
heading into Thursday, with an 850 mb shortwave set to eject east of
the Rockies. Warm air advection will increase ahead of the
shortwave, such that a notable mid-level thermal gradient will
develop across the Northern Plains. Forcing associated with the flow
of Pacific moisture and isentropic upglide will aid in the likely
development of a northwest to southeast oriented swath of
precipitation across the Upper Midwest, positioned to the north of
the 850 mb frontal boundary. Blended solutions place this swath of
snow right across central Minnesota, though there are still
north/south solutions on the table that will need to be resolved
before discussing snowfall amounts. QPF expectations remain somewhat
in flux, given significant differences among the Grand Ensemble
membership. The GEFS suite remains the wettest, with several members
in the 0.3"-0.5" range. The EPS and Canadian suites are drier, with
0.1"-0.3" of QPF available to work with. As with any
thermodynamically driven Winter event, there will be a frontogenic
component to the snowfall forecast (where enhanced banding of snow
may occur), however that precise axis will take several more
forecast runs to fine tune. To sum it all up, it appears
increasingly likely that snowflakes will fly and accumulate in some
fashion Thursday, which has been reflected in the latest PoPs from
the NBM (pushing 70% across central Minnesota). Specifics with
regards to snowfall amount, timing, intensity, and impacts will come
into a better picture in the coming days. Should the forecast
continue to trend in this direction, travel impacts will become
likely Thursday. Stay tuned!

As discussed by the midnight shift, Thursday continues to serve as a
prelude for what is to follow. Naturally, this is also the part of
the forecast where the specifics begin to fall off the table, but
guidance suggests next weekend bears watching for a more substantial
round of widespread precipitation and possible wintry weather. There
is good support across the ensembles that a deep trough will move
over the west coast next weekend, followed by the development of a
surface low pressure system in the Great Plains. Notable differences
in the track of the surface low exist, and will have further
implications on things like precipitation type and amount. Despite
the understandable challenges regarding many details, the big
picture idea is impressive and will require further updates
given such a strong signal this far out (NBM already features >
50-70% PoPs next Sunday!). While a large amount of uncertainty
does exist, the more active pattern that appears to be setting
up will benefit ongoing dry conditions. We`ll take what we can
get!

This is the first time that they have described the Thursday clipper as anything other than "light snow with mild impacts".

[hawkstwelve]

Fairly decent shift south on the 00z CMC. Move towards the GFS?

[Clinton]

Temps this morning have dropped into the mid 20s this morning which feels rather cold after the warm weather I've had.  0z models are looking rather wet next weekend and snowy for some.

[Minny_Weather]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Fairly decent shift south on the 00z CMC. Move towards the GFS?

Funny cuz GFS has actually appeared to come slightly north from past runs. At least the 06Z run is the first in the past day or so to actually give me WSW amounts.

 

Side note: I will literally ask for nothing for Christmas if Euro comes to life. Holy hell.

[Minny_Weather]

MPX:

Quote

An active pattern is set to return for the second half of the week.
You knew it had to snow again eventually... right? There is always a
level of uncertainty with any system that`s still over 96 hours out
but forecast confidence is beginning to increase due to the
consistency across guidance. A mid-level shortwave will extend
eastward across the Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday. Warm air
advection will increase ahead of the system across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. This WAA will lead to a broad
area of isentropic ascent tied to a weak warm front that will lead
to the development of a northwest to southeast oriented band of
light snow across the Dakotas that`ll track into Minnesota and
Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. There is still a vague signal for the
potential of an embedded band of heavier snow driven by low level
frontogenesis that we`ll have to keep an eye out for once hi-res
guidance gets into range. Conceptually, guidance has an impressive
temperature gradient at 850mb associated with the weak low level
warm front. This feature is present at 700mb, too but is displaced
to the northeast of the 850mb gradient. Conceptually, it should lead
to a narrow band of heavier snowfall driven by an FGEN circulation.
Unfortunately, these features aren`t easy to pick up until hi-res
guidance is available, which would be Tuesday night & Wednesday, so
until then we`ll focus on the broad snow & the associated impacts
from that. Ensemble mean QPF has trended up since last night`s 00z
runs across all of the major ensemble systems (EPS/GEFS/GEPS). They
highlight a broad band of 0.20 to 0.30" QPF across MN & W WI by
Friday morning. The 00z ECMWF QPF has trended higher as did other
globals. The GFS continues to be the outlier in advertising 0.50 to
0.60" across a broad area of MN and WI, which is unreasonable given
the speed &evolution of this system, but a narrow region of higher
QPF is still in play per FGEN. Blended guidance is similar to the
00z ECMWF with a band of 0.20 to 0.30" across portions of central
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. NBM PoPs have ticked upwards into
the 70 to 80% range. This lines up with higher confidence for
precipitation on Thursday.

Here`s a summary: It appears likely that a broad area of snow will
impact the Upper Midwest on Thursday & Thursday night, with
increasing confidence for a few inches of accumulation despite
recent warmth and thawed ground. Specifics with regards to timing,
amounts, placement, intensity, and travel impacts will come into
greater detail as additional guidance becomes available. If you`re
put away your snow shovel or winter gear it`s not too late to get it
back out! You have a few days to prepare.

Beyond Thursday, our attention turns to next weekend (and early next
week). Guidance suggests a deep trough will dig into the western
CONUs with several shortwaves embedded within the broad longwave
trough. There is a significant amount of uncertainty with respect to
the evolution of this period, but there is remarkable consistency
with the signal for potential of a few waves of precipitation across
the Midwest. The first window is Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave
lifts out of the Rockies and into the Plains. NBM PoPs are beginning
to increase for this upcoming weekend in response to the stormy
signal. Unfortunately, P-type issues are likely given the
potentially dynamic nature of this system. What`s important is not
any one specific model run, but the consistency in the signal for a
storm. This should support a greater potential for beneficial
precipitation across the region as we end March.

 

FGF mentions my town by name!:

Quote

For Thursday, models coming into good agreement in bringing a
500 mb short wave from southern British Columbia/northern
Washington state Wednesday east-southeast into far SE
ND/northeast SD/west central MN area by 00z Fri. 850-700 mb
frontogenetical forcing along with 850 mb warm advection look to
be the forcing mechanism to generate a snow band from north
central Montana into west central/northwest ND into southeast
ND/northeast SD into central or southern MN. NBM 4.1 probs for 2
and 4 inches or more of snow remain higher than
GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensembles and WPC experimental forecast
products. WPC indicates 20-30 pct chance of greater or equal to
4 inches of snow SE ND into parts of WC MN (along a Jamestown-
Wahpeton-Alexandria line) with GFS ensembles from 00z indicating
a 30 percent chance of the same and 12Z ECMWF ensembles
indicating less than 5 pct. Using QPF and snow ratio data from
WPC would indicate a 1-3 inch snowfall south of Devils Lake-
Grand Forks-Bemidji area with highest amounts closer to South
Dakota border. I did notice that trends for main frontogenetical
forcing from GFS is a tad farther south now than 24 hours ago.
Based on forcing a broad area of 1-3 inches with a narrow zone
of 4-5 seems most reasonable idea for upcoming event with that
narrow zone of higher amounts uncertain its its exact location
but favored far SE ND/NE SD/MN border area. The main snow is 12z
Thu to 00z Fri so a fast but quick hitting system.

Past the Thursday system we certainly look to remain active
with two more potential systems before the weekend ends. The
first being a weak clipper type system that looks to pass
through South Dakota with less than a 50% for greater than 1" of
snow from friday into Saturday. Warm air advection will be the
main driver with this wave though NBM members show support for
0.10-0.20" of QPF in the core of the band to the south and thus
the potential for higher totals should this system trend north
more into our region.

The second and potentially more impactful of the weekend systems
would be the result of west/southwest flow aloft by Sunday as we
find building ridging over the southeast US and digging troughing
out of the Rockies. Expected lee cyclogenesis in the high plains will
support a wide swath of snow across the area though there is
currently high spread in potential QPF totals and footprint at least
when looking just as eastern ND and northwest MN. Even when just
looking at the potential for > 0.25" of QPF one can find as high as
a 70% chance and as low as 20% for a FA max. This gives little
confidence in the eventual footprint though consistent signal from
all clusters producing > 0.25" at least in the vicinity of the
forecast area means it certainly bears watching with a close eye.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Started a thread for the "big one" next weekend/early next week. 

 

For now, I'll keep talking about the Thursday night shortwave in here.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 38/29. There was 0.4” of precipitation that fell as 0.2” of snowfall. The highest wind speed was 33 MPH out of the W. There was 7% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 45/27 the record high of 75  was set in 1894, 1903 and 2012. The record low of 5 was set in 1923. The wettest was 1.06” that fell as 3” of snow in 1899. The most snowfall was 5.7” in 1965. The most on the ground was 13” in 1904. Last year the H/L was 27/15 and there was 4” of snowfall.

With a H/L of 38/29 yesterday was the 1^st day of below average temperatures this month. The current mean for March is 45.5 but that will fall a good amount this week. At this time there is light snow falling with a temperature of 28 and there is a trace of snow on the ground.  

[tStacsh]

Of course after such a warm winter and early March, winter will refuse to leave and it will probably be an awful spring.   I hate it.  

[MIKEKC]

On 3/17/2024 at 8:33 AM, Clinton said:

Below normal temps the next couple of days for the first time this month.  The hard freeze which should be no big deal this time of year will likely damage the fruit trees that are flowering and or leafed out atm.  Hopefully next weekends storm will be a good rain producer.

 

I can't believe the NWS did not have freeze warnings for MO last night. We're literally in full bloom in KC....dropped to 21 degrees in parts of the city this morning. I'm wondering if that knocked out our spring color on the perennial flowering trees and plants. We'll know here soon. 

More cold to come it appears...

[Ottawa CO, MI]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Of course after such a warm winter and early March, winter will refuse to leave and it will probably be an awful spring.   I hate it.  

Next 4 weeks looks below average. Mid March to mid April is the worst 30 days in MI. 

[Tom]

Leaving the gym this morning, my neighbors have their family visiting from MN and her kids were at the pool and I said, "its a bit brisk for the pool, huh?" Then I chuckled and said, "wait, your from Minnesota so this is warm for you".  I had to mention the fact that MN is in a prime spot to get hit with some snow over the next 10 days.  I found out that her daughters husband is a snowplow truck driver.  The snow will be welcomed!

[james1976]

Well, these model runs are putting me back in winter vibes. Clipper Thursday and potential big dog  after. Bring it on!

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Well, these model runs are putting me back in winter vibes. Clipper Thursday and potential big dog  after. Bring it on!

It’s great that the ground temps have lowered from all the cold that has settled in and not having to deal with a very warm ground.

[Tom]

Nice strong storm popped up near my place…took these shots heading east on the 87 hwy…

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

This would be March going out like a lion…..

[Timmy Supercell]

Been having on and off non-sticking snow showers in Ashland this afternoon. From 2-6pm. I think its thinning out, as well as an overall decrease in wind gusts. 

36 now, with a high of 41 for the day. Felt a lot like January out here. 

[Madtown]

2 to 3" of lake effect since Saturday night. Feels winter like

[Money]

This is a sneaky potential system for Friday for WI/MN area 

 

ICON/GFS/UKIE

[Money]

6z GFS shifted a tad south and widened the band a bit with general 6-12 

MKE AFD this morning:

 

Confidence is high (70-90%) in widespread accumulating snowfall
for southern Wisconsin late Thursday through at least Friday
morning, as a shortwave moves through the region. The big
question with this system is the track of the stronger
frontogenetic forcing. Models still vary a bit with the
placement of the strong frontogenesis, ranging from along/just
north of the northern forecast area border to along the WI/IL
state line. Locally higher amounts are expected with the
stronger forcing, but it`s too early to pin down totals,
especially where these higher amounts may wind up. Given that
this system has slowed down a bit, confidence is increasing that
accumulating snowfall will impact the Friday morning commute,
especially where any banded snowfall sets up due to the stronger
forcing.

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 35/25 there was 0.01” of precipitation and a trace of snowfall. The highest wind gust was 29 MPH out if the NW. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is now up to 46/28 the record high of 81 was set in 2012 the record low of 0 was set in 1923 the most rainfall of 2.12” fell in 1948 the most snowfall of 3.3” fell in 1971 the most on the ground was 9” in 1965. Last year the H/L was 34/17.

[Andie]

Cold start today. 41*. High of 68.  
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across North and Central Texas late Wednesday and Thursday. 

[westMJim]

It is a rather windy March day once again. With winds gusting up to near 40 MPH and a temperature of 41 it sure don't fell like it is that warm.

[Tom]

Loving the weather out here the past few days…storms are again firing up along the edge of the valley…

 

 

 

[Tom]

I was a weee bit excited at that moment…good music and good vibes….

 

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

I think NAM's "widespread 4", isolated 5"" solution is a bit more realistic for the Thursday night wave than the WSW-level stuff that the globals have been spitting out. 

[westMJim]

As has been the case this year yesterday was yet another windy day with the highest wind gust of 46 MPH out of the W. The H/L was 44/30 there was no rain/snowfall the sun was out 40% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 46/28 the record high of 83 was set in 2012 and the record low of 3 was set in 1965. The most rainfall of 1.22” fell in 2011 the most snowfall of 8.4” was in 1940 the most on the ground was 9” in 1965. Last year the H/L was 49/27.

The overnight low here in MBY was 30 and that is the current temperature, there was .2” of snowfall and there is a trace of snow on the ground at the current time.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1976: A tornado outbreak strikes from Michigan to Mississippi. In Michigan, two people are killed, one each in Oakland and Macomb Counties.

 2012, highs of 82, 84, and 83 were recorded in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw respectively. Each temperature tied for the warmest March temperatures ever recorded at the time. However, all records would be broken in the coming days. Ultimately March 20, 2012, would be the third warmest March day ever recorded for Detroit and the second warmest for Flint and Saginaw.

 1976, an F4 tornado moved through West Bloomfield in Oakland County at 7:15 PM. This tornado was responsible for 1 death, 55 injuries, and over $5 million in damage. This is both the strongest and costliest tornado to ever hit Oakland County.

 many snowstorms have hit Southeast Michigan with greater than 6 inches over a large area of the region including in 1967, 1983, 1989, 1992, and 1996. In 1983, the Flint snowfall of 9.6 inches was the tenth heaviest snowstorm in its history.

Around the USA

1948, 

 The city of Juneau received 31 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for the Alaska Capitol. (20th – 21st)

Also, on this day, an F3 tornado tracked through Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City, OK just before 10 pm destroying 54 aircraft, including 17 transport planes valued at $500,000 apiece. The total damage amounted to more than $10 million, a record for the state that stood until the massive tornado outbreak of 5/3/1999. Major Ernest W. Fawbush and Captain Robert C. Miller were ordered to see if operationally forecasting tornadoes was possible. The tornado prompted the first attempt at tornado forecasting. Forecasters at Tinker believed conditions were again favorable for tornadoes and issued the first recorded tornado forecast. Five days later, on 3/25 at 6 pm, a forecasted tornado occurred, crossing the prepared base, and the damage was minimized. The successful, albeit somewhat lucky forecast, paved the way for tornado forecasts to be issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau after a lengthy ban.

1998, A deadly tornado outbreak occurred over portions of the southeastern United States on this day. Particularly hard hit were rural areas outside of Gainesville, Georgia, where at least 12 people were killed during the early morning hours. The entire outbreak killed 14 people and produced 12 tornadoes across three states.  The town of Stoneville, North Carolina, was hard hit by the storms.

[tStacsh]

No thread for the lead wave, but this could be quite the sneaky little juiced up storm, These type seem to thump and over perform and the local office is taking notes.   That said, I wish it was spring weather, but oh well.  

  FROM GRR AFD

- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY     MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF A SFC WAVE   ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/ARCTIC DRAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ON   THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR   MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE   IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE IS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AXIS OF HEAVIES QPF   BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CURRENT WPC   QPF FOLLOWS THIS PATTERN, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM MKG TO MOP,   BUT WE WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS TRENDS   SOUTH TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GEM WITH TIME.    

 

MID-LEVEL F-GEN SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MESOSCALE   BANDING WITH HIGHER SNOW RATES POTENTIALLY PERSISTING AS THE BANDS   PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT STORM TOTAL   SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FORECAST   AREA IS INDICATIVE OF THIS.

[bud2380]

This Thu/Fri clipper is gonna mean business for someone.

 

[bud2380]

Euro brings snow down to Cedar Rapids on Friday morning.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Of course the Euro shifts back to the south a little bit while the other models move north.

Edit: I just realized I posted this on the wrong thread. Woops.

[bud2380]

The Euro's QPF totals are much better in Iowa than the GFS.