March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[FroYoBro]

A few nice pictures of the coast range under that band of snow before sunset. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing and 33.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Probably be a unrelenting jet stream winter like 1998-99.   Which of course was crazy good for the mountains but not so much in the lowlands.

1973-74 might be a good match too. As Tanis pointed out recently we have a solid shot at an arctic blast next winter, and both 73-74 and 98-99 had big ones. Just a bit weak in the lowland snow department. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My guess is we end up with a SCREAMING pacific jet this coming fall and early winter. 

Agreed... neutral or weak Nina seems to be much better for blocking.   

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably be a unrelenting jet stream winter like 1998-99.   Which of course was crazy good for the mountains but not so much in the lowlands.

Well it's a d*mn good thing I live in the mountains! 250" NEXT YEAR, ITS COMINNGG!

[DeepFriedEgg]

20 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Agree. Just frustrating that as soon as the best dynamics are in play it goes dry.

You must be new to the PNW. That's usually how it works around here!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

Another trough, followed by a nice ridge as I head up to Alaska.

Can’t wait for that ridge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Agreed... neutral or weak Nina seems to be much better for blocking.   

November 1973-January 1974 is the wettest 3 month period on record at Silver Falls with 61.95" of precip. November and January were a bit cooler than average, December was a bit of a torch. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Shelton dropped 4 degrees in 15 mins and went from rain to snow and 34

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Well it's a d*mn good thing I live in the mountains! 250" NEXT YEAR, ITS COMINNGG!

I love those winters, massive snow In mountains and I can do really good here as well. 50 inches 07 08 winter.

Edited March 3 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[MWG]

High of 41F and 33F for the low. Currently 39F and clouds have moved in. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I love those winters, massive snow In mountains and I can do really good here as well. 50 inches 07 08 winter.

2007-08 was another strong Nina. I see 2010-11 listed as moderate though it seems about the same strength as 07-08'. 

[TacomaWx]

Was watching the new dune movie in theaters but looks like it dropped to 38 this afternoon while I was in the theater. Hoping for atleast some white ground or something the next couple nights but we will see…

[seattleweatherguy]

40 and rain 

[snow_wizard]

Radar is really lit up over SW WA.  Might be some hope.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2007-08 was another strong Nina. I see 2010-11 listed as moderate though it seems about the same strength as 07-08'. 

Yuck.

This winter will be way blockier just going by recent trends alone.  I'm betting the QBO was minus that winter and this will be plus.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

40 and rain 

The little bit of precip I've had today has all been frozen.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Radar is really lit up over SW WA.  Might be some hope.

Just seems like precipitation has been underwhelming and had a tendency to weaken moving NE the last couple days. Then when we finally get good precipitation rates it’s mid day. I feel like eventually with the amount of chances we’ve had in previous days, and still moving forward something will work out. Even if it’s only a brief trace of snow I’d be happy. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF missed the precip showing on the radar over SW WA at this time, so it's probably wrong about this area being so dry this evening.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Just seems like precipitation has been underwhelming and had a tendency to weaken moving NE the last couple days. Then when we finally get good precipitation rates it’s mid day. I feel like eventually with the amount of chances we’ve had in previous days, and still moving forward something will work out. Even if it’s only a brief trace of snow I’d be happy. 

We'll have to see how this current stuff holds up.  The trajectories and surface gradients are changing constantly right now.  The things that ruined earlier chances may be gone now.

That is what I hate about this climate sometimes.  It's just so D**n hard to get everything to line up right.  Just flat wears me out.

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Radar is really lit up over SW WA.  Might be some hope.

Yea I like it also. Future radar has it breaking apart as it comes up the sound…. But who knows. HRRR looks like a pretty good bet rn 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll have to see how this current stuff holds up.  The trajectories and surface gradients are changing constantly right now.  The things that ruined earlier chances may be gone now.

That is what I hate about this climate sometimes.  It's just so D**n hard to get everything to line up right.  Just flat wears me out.

I feel like it’s kind of to be expected for it to be tough to snow so late in the season especially…snow is always a marginal fickle thing around here. I feel like that’s also part of what makes it special when it does manage to happen every now and then. 

[snow_wizard]

The cloud shield moving up from SW WA is impressive.  You can still see it boiling in places on the visible sat loop.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF missed the precip showing on the radar over SW WA at this time, so it's probably wrong about this area being so dry this evening.

The EURO completely missed on this entire pattern. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea I like it also. Future radar has it breaking apart as it comes up the sound…. But who knows. HRRR looks like a pretty good bet rn 

I commented earlier I was shocked to see the HRRRRR actually good for us.

[snow maniac]

33 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Snowing and 33.

Snowing here also everything has turned white.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Moderate snow, ground is turning white

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The EURO completely missed on this entire pattern. 

It's been terrible on details lately.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If that huge shower area coming in from the coast is snow I will get a few inches out of that. Sound will get snow tonight I can feel it

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just 5 minutes and it did this

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I commented earlier I was shocked to see the HRRRRR actually good for us.

It is?  The 00Z HRRR run shows precip staying mainly to west overnight. 

[snow_wizard]

Of course the new HRRRR took all of the precip away this evening.  Radar sure looks impressive though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just pouring snow now, 33 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It is?  The 00Z HRRR run shows precip staying mainly to west overnight. 

It just changed.  Earlier runs were good.  It radar watching time for this event now.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just 5 minutes and it did this

I hope you're right.  I'm just sick of getting nothing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Of course the new HRRRR took all of the precip away this evening.  Radar sure looks impressive though.

Just watch the radar, models are wrong man. They do not have a handle on this tonight it would appear. Can't see how those showers won't get you

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It just changed.  Earlier runs were good.  It radar watching time for this event now.

For sure.

There is a center of circulation offshore that should start inducing drying in the upper levels over the EPSL.    I think it will be a question of how much does precip fade as it moves inland.  

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It just changed.  Earlier runs were good.  It radar watching time for this event now.

Yeah, at this point getting stressed out about the models isn’t really worth it. None of them are going to show everything exactly as it happens. 

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Of course the new HRRRR took all of the precip away this evening.  Radar sure looks impressive though.

It always catches on very late. It showed Portland getting hit really good with showers this evening during all the runs this afternoon. Looking like it will mostly stay just west of us in reality. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Cleaning up from the windy week, had the top half of a cedar break off and land mostly into the woods on the other side of the driveway, but just enough sticking out to be annoying so I cut that back along with some of the branches…The amount of pollen coming off the branches was insane, definitely what has been coating my truck the last few days. 

And my dog enjoying the sun. No showers of any kind since daybreak. 
Currently 38 degrees. 

 

But how is the @Phil tree doing?  Has it lived to see another day?