March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Difficult to not be dry with high pressure dominating the NE Pacific.  

Horrible outcome. Some model runs have been showing a wetter more favorable solution. In this climate we always need rain and as much as we can get.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Horrible outcome. Some model runs have been showing a wetter more favorable solution. In this climate we always need rain and as much as we can get.

Just so infuriating that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days without rain each year.   Almost like dry days outnumber wet days per climo.    Darn climo getting in the way of your wet dreams.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Just so infuriating that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days without rain each year.   Almost like dry days outnumber wet days per climo.    Darn climo getting in the way of your wet dreams.  

Years like 1996 are the gold standard. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

GFS might end up being right.  Sometimes it does great with catching onto things in the longer range.

It's good for catching onto things, often times being wrong, but when something does happen, it probably called it in the long range.

Although it is terrible with details

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just so infuriating that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days without rain each year.   Almost like dry days outnumber wet days per climo.    Darn climo getting in the way of your wet dreams.  

You'd think he was a teenager with all his wet dreams...

[Omegaraptor]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just so infuriating that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days without rain each year.   Almost like dry days outnumber wet days per climo.    Darn climo getting in the way of your wet dreams.  

You're missing this at the end of your post -> 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

31 currently, this weather sucks. Either give us real mountain storms, cold sunny days, or warm sunny days, not this crap.

 

I wish the perfect climate actually existed...

[Cold Snap]

Looks like I could get a freeze in Wednesday night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 with some rain about this morning. 

[Phishy Wx]

I heard Andrew doesn't like burgers?  Grilling season is coming up, and a bunch of 60s and 70s out there.  cmon man!

[MossMan]

Wind! And mostly clear. 40 degrees. 

[T-Town]

40 degrees and dead calm here this morning. The sun is trying to peek out. 

[Omegaraptor]

46 and drizzle in Chico currently, which is the low. Forecast high is 60.

[westcoastexpat]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Totally agree.  Many of the nights during whatever warm period actually happens could be pretty cold in the outlying areas.  At this point above normal daily averages appear they will be limited to maybe as little as 4 days for some places.

At least 5 days, if not 6 for most places you mean

The writing is on the wall for March anomalies going positive 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

14 hours ago, westcoastexpat said:

NWS Climate Prediction Centre Outlook for the last week of March and first week of April

Looking like March may be well above normal and dry when all is said and done (especially after a week in the mid to upper 60s). A bit concerning going into wildfire season.

This looks promising; then maybe we can get a couple weeks of solid rain mid-late April to quench Andrew’s thirst  

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

This looks promising; then maybe we can get a couple weeks of solid rain mid-late April to quench Andrew’s thirst  

Those outlooks tend to be kinda trash.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

I heard Andrew doesn't like burgers?  Grilling season is coming up, and a bunch of 60s and 70s out there.  cmon man!

Or hot dogs, last time we discussed food on here.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Those outlooks tend to be kinda trash.

Hmm, yeah EPS does look much cooler/wet to close out the month comparatively. Guess I’ll be model riding for a bit.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Overcast with a low of 43 this morning as the next system approaches offshore. This one looks to be the chilliest of the current sequence at the 850mb level, but it’s also the system that will usher in our coming ridge on its heels, as it digs into the SW. Flagstaff should get a good dump of snow by later this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Overcast with a low of 43 this morning as the next system approaches offshore. This one looks to be the chilliest of the current sequence at the 850mb level, but it’s also the system that will usher in our coming ridge on its heels, as it digs into the SW. Flagstaff should get a good dump of snow by later this week.

Will get very close to snow here, maybe flakes in the air. Seems this coming ridge will be fairly short lived. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks significantly warmer for next week with a slower breakdown... but the 12Z GEM went towards a more aggressive approach like the GFS was showing yesterday.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS looks significantly warmer for next week with a slower breakdown... but the 12Z GEM went towards a more aggressive approach like the GFS was showing yesterday.  

Most ensembles are leaning towards the ridge drifting west/north allowing under cutting or back door. We probably see more rain/cool weather towards the end of the month. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Most ensembles are leaning towards the ridge drifting west/north allowing under cutting or back door. We probably see more rain/cool weather towards the end of the month. 

For sure... its March.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

39 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Overcast with a low of 43 this morning as the next system approaches offshore. This one looks to be the chilliest of the current sequence at the 850mb level, but it’s also the system that will usher in our coming ridge on its heels, as it digs into the SW. Flagstaff should get a good dump of snow by later this week.

Not sure if to be happy or sad.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For sure... its March.   

LOL. Some would believe it is August. 

[Slushy Inch]

Looks like some cells off the coast are rotating.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is slow to come out this morning but the CONUS view has updated through 240 hours now and it shows a ULL coming inland next Wednesday and Thursday with rain and mountain snow.  

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is slow to come out this morning but the CONUS view has updated through 240 hours now and it shows a ULL coming inland next Wednesday and Thursday with rain and mountain snow.  

Big change from last run 

[Phishy Wx]

I almost moved to Flagstaff at one point.  probably should've

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Big change from last run 

ULL was there on 00Z run but stayed offshore... this run is more progressive.    GFS went the other way now. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Most ensembles are leaning towards the ridge drifting west/north allowing under cutting or back door. We probably see more rain/cool weather towards the end of the month. 

Crazy. I was really hoping for three straight weeks of 70s.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GEFS seems to look more like the operational Euro and GEM, with a quicker breakdown of the ridge. 

 

We’re definitely not out of the woods yet, but some promising signs that this thing might end up being fairly tolerable.

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ULL was there on 00Z run but stayed offshore... this run is more progressive.    GFS went the other way now. 

Gefs didn’t go other way.

[bainbridgekid]

12z Euro fully on board with temps near 70 both Saturday and Sunday. Low 70's in the foothills Saturday. Perfectly timed with peak warmth over the weekend and if things break down sooner with some mountain snow later next week that's best of both worlds IMO.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z Euro has PDX at 67 degrees at 00z Monday (Sunday afternoon). Even adding 3-4 degrees for a cool bias, that would put them at 70-71 for a high. I wonder if Mark will go down with his 77 degree ship for Sunday on tonight’s 7-day.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z Euro fully on board with temps near 70 both Saturday and Sunday. Low 70's in the foothills Saturday. Perfectly timed with peak warmth over the weekend and if things break down sooner with some mountain snow later next week that's best of both worlds IMO.

 

That is going to feel amazing! 

[bainbridgekid]

26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro has PDX at 67 degrees at 00z Monday (Sunday afternoon). Even adding 3-4 degrees for a cool bias, that would put them at 70-71 for a high. I wonder if Mark will go down with his 77 degree ship for Sunday on tonight’s 7-day.

Euro spits out 69 Sat and 68 Sun for PDX. Oddly it shows 69 both days for Everett though. Would be weird for us to be warmer than you in a pattern like this. If we are near 70 like that I would think mid 70's would be very achievable down there. Mark's 77 forecast at this range definitely feels click baity though.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Coconut oil begins to melt at about 75 F. Jesse begins to melt at a much lower temperature than that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Euro spits out 69 Sat and 68 Sun for PDX. Oddly it shows 69 both days for Everett though. Would be weird for us to be warmer than you in a pattern like this. If we are near 70 like that I would think mid 70's would be very achievable down there. Mark's 77 forecast at this range definitely feels click baity though.

Possible there’s a little more offshore flow/downsloping being advertised up that way, due to the rex block-esque positioning of the ridge.

And be careful what you say. He has a habit of calling out dissenters on air  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GEFS seems to look more like the operational Euro and GEM, with a quicker breakdown of the ridge. 

 

We’re definitely not out of the woods yet, but some promising signs that this thing might end up being fairly tolerable.

Mark NELSEN thinks this brings record heat.