bud2380 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 15z RAP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Baby step improvements on the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, hlcater said: Throw this one out. Gives me 5". My office gives me all rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 One of the most detailed AFD's you'll see from DMX. They mention that the storm is already showing evidence of better phasing than thought and the GEM and Euro are doing the better job. A digging northern stream trough/cold front now entering northwest MN southwest across South Dakota. The coldest air is currently at Bismarck and strong cold air advection in excess of 40 kts will be pushing the nose of the cold air nearly due south into western Nebraska by later today and tonight. Already there is evidence of more phasing of the streams this morning. A quick look at models in the last 12 hours shows the 00z Euro/GEM have initialized better than the 06z GFS or the 12z NAM with respect to the cold air pushing south at this time over the Northern Plains. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 As much as I give DMX crap for horrible AFD's- this is not one of them and gotta give them credit when credit is due. One of the best discussions I've ever read in 20+ years. They are not discounting the Euro, in fact almost favoring it and mention possibility of higher amounts due to the uncertainty in the 2nd wave come Sat. IF your into meteorology, and even if not affected by this system, your sure to learn something. National Weather Service Des Moines IA 246 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/ Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Confidence: Medium Overall confidence remains medium due to several factors including some differences in the evolution/strength of the low between models and the ensemble means running higher than the deterministic models in terms of qpf output. The fact that we remain near the freezing mark during this event in the south also adds to some uncertainty regarding rain/snow vs snow at times during the event. Will be issuing an advisory for the southwest to east central this package for snowfall. Quiet weather continues into the evening with increasing clouds and moisture beginning to load northward by Friday morning. Subjective 12z H850 analysis today showed a more complicated southwest height pattern indicating two pieces of energy with one over Mexico near the New Mexico border and the second over Arizona. Farther north we continue with a developing lee side trough across the Central and Southern Plains. A digging northern stream trough/cold front now entering northwest MN southwest across South Dakota. The coldest air is currently at Bismarck and strong cold air advection in excess of 40 kts will be pushing the nose of the cold air nearly due south into western Nebraska by later today and tonight. Already there is evidence of more phasing of the streams this morning. A quick look at models in the last 12 hours shows the 00z Euro/GEM have initialized better than the 06z GFS or the 12z NAM with respect to the cold air pushing south at this time over the Northern Plains. Tonight a rapid increase in lowering stratus will occur as the colder air spills into the region from the Northern Plains. Already stratus is forming over Nebraska and areas north and west. Meanwhile the southwest low is beginning to move east northeast with an attendant mid to high level cloud shield spreading northeast. Lows tonight as winds become more north northwest with time will drop into the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. The first moisture surge will arrive Friday by early Friday morning across the south. Bufr soundings show a classic top-down saturation process with a mixture of rain snow over the area by 12z and continuing during the day. The south will likely swing back to rain with a mix again appearing later in the afternoon. The western areas will be more prone to a mix or all snow at times with light accumulations through the day hours. By 00z PoPs increase to nearly 100% in the south with a rain snow mix gradually changing to all snow in most of the south by 05z. The southeast may remain either a mix or rain into early Saturday morning. During this period, snowfall will pick up with up to 1 to 3 inches southwest/west and about 2 in central sections and little if any southeast. Lows Friday night into Saturday will drop to the mid 20s to lower 30s. The models continue to differ on the development of the deformation axis back across Iowa from Friday night through Saturday morning when the most prolific period of snowfall should occur. Though the 12z operational Euro is beginning to somewhat mirror the 12z GFS in storm track and speed, but still differs in position of the H850 low and subsequent duration of the deformation axis across Iowa from Friday evening into early Saturday morning. The farther south track of the H850 low in the GFS and earlier weakening of the def axis results in much less qpf over our area. The net difference is about 0.25 inches of water equivalent, or approximately 3 to 4 inches of snow even at 10:1. The expected snow ratio should be near that or slightly higher given climatology and cooling temperatures between 03z and 12z Saturday. This will be the period of most concern given the model discrepancies today. Given this possibility of higher amounts near the I80/I35 corridor or slightly southwest/west...the next few shifts will need to closely evaluate the data a bit more. Winds Friday night will be from the northeast at 15 to 20 mph with likely gusts to 25 mph, so some blowing snow is possible. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Wow- Bud and I on same page!! 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 RAP looks pretty good. 2"+ across most of Iowa with even a pocket of 8+". Many areas in the 4-6" range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, bud2380 said: RAP looks pretty good. 2"+ across most of Iowa with even a pocket of 8+". Many areas in the 4-6" range. Okay, the northward shift can stop now, if the northerly shifts keep up it might be another “Sioux City special” LOL. Still feeling good about seeing 2 to 4 inches of snow here, which is good enough for me at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Looks like whatever falls will stick around here in C.IA for a little bit. Might be gone for Christmas, but at least it's a festive mood for awhile rather than a come and go in a day or so. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Seems like OAX has Lincoln on the higher end of 2-4". Grids have an inch tomorrow and 2-4" tomorrow night. Honestly I don't see any accumulations happening before sunset, hope I'm wrong. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 DMX just upped grids here to 3-6" 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 18Z Euro holding serve. 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'll consider anything over 3" here to be a win. 3 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 4" SREF plumes mean for LNK. Somewhat of a varation, but 25/27 members 1"+ at least. OMA: 3.3" HDE: 2.3" DSM: 4.4" CID: 2.9" DBQ: 4.3" MSN: 5.7" 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 ^ 21Z will run here in the next hour or so.. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: ^ 21Z will run here in the next hour or so.. Lol thanks I had no idea when they typically come out, I just usually randomly look whenever. I would guess that'll be a bit more useful. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 The 00z HRRR has jumped north and increased snow across Iowa. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 00Z NAm is more amped with def band than 18Z 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 NAM is going to have 10-12" in C.IA 1 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 NAM stronger at mid level, snow is actually pushed north of CR for much of Friday and Friday night. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 dang- if this actually had some cold air to work with....... 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 NAM great for Omaha/Lincoln, 3km looks to be setting up nicely as well 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 The 3kNAM has Cedar Rapids in solid rain for several hours, the CR is on the rain/snow line for another several hours. That would probably be several inches of snow if we were only a few degrees colder. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 snow winding down in IA- 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: snow winding down in IA- Still showing some dry pockets around CR/IC, but certainly better overall. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 I really hope the cold air settles in a little further south than the NAM shows. The 3K NAM has the main cutoff right between Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Basically where I live. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 Ready for some snow! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 3KM- 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 NAM is pretty, but definitely overdone. SREFs are about the same to 1/2" lower for most, but more of a cluster around 2-5". For southeast Neb, 3-5" is probably the highest reasonable call. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: NAM is pretty, but definitely overdone. SREFs are about the same to 1/2" lower for most, but more of a cluster around 2-5". For southeast Neb, 3-5" is probably the highest reasonable call. I feel 2 to 4 inches across most of Eastern Nebraska, with a few isolated amounts around 5 or 6" is what we are looking at around here. Not a big storm by any means, but finally something to make it look and feel more like Christmas-time/Winter. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 DVN back to 2-5” 2 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 3K NAM is brutal here. 6” in CR. 1” in Iowa City. Basically 20 miles apart. I always seem to be right on the dividing line here. It happens so often that there has to be a scientific reason for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 00Z HRRR- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, dubuque473 said: DVN back to 2-5” Would be very pleased with this! I’m really cool with any kind of accumulating snow at this time! 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 RGEM is much more favorable for my back yard. 7” on 10:1. 5” on Kuchera 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 GFS still looks like crap if not worse than before. It's running about 3-4 degrees higher than other models which makes a world of difference with this storm. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2020 Report Share Posted December 11, 2020 GFS with some improvement in C.IA- but still no real def band. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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