November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[tim the weatherman]

Gary Lezak would be thrilled if this comes even close to fruition!  Lol...this storm track is a classic Texarkana cutter...too bad its 8-9 days away.  I like the trends tho, as this is a similar storm track the Euro ensembles have been hinting at for days.

a repeat in the making from the 2011 groundhogs day blizzard.

[Tom]

a repeat in the making from the 2011 groundhogs day blizzard.

That would be a wonderful way to kick off Thanksgiving week!  Still too many things to iron out this far out but I must say, the way the models are handling this piece of energy this far out are rather intriguing. 

[WBadgersW]

I'm posting this just for you winterfreak. This should be your new profile pic lol

Sexy, all I need is that NW shift. Fun times ahead.

[winterfreak]

Oh my god guys. Hurry up, lock it in! Stop teasing me.

[tim the weatherman]

check this out from accuweather fourmshttp://i.imgur.com/gj0jCZK.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/yWiFimi.png

[clintbeed1993]

That would be impressive if it wasn't fantasy land.  We should all know nobody is going to see anywhere close to 40 inches. lol

This may become a massive storm for somebody though.  We need to wait and see what the models are showing by the middle of next week.

[james1976]

WOW

[Jaycee]

My god. We're not even in the jackpot zone, and would still get 24"!! Haha my god. Idk if I've honestly seen the GFS lay down that potent of a storm, even in fantasy land.

[Geos]

check this out from accuweather fourms

 

Was just about to post that second one. I had to rub my eyes to make sure I wasn't seeing things! 

KC would be immobilized if that happened.

 

That map is getting circulated around AMWX too!

 

High of only 30° today. I think this November is going to beat out last November in terms of negative departures.

[NEJeremy]

this is a major winterstorm in the making with chicago on the northren side so that means chicago will be getting heavy snow with rates of 2 to 3 per hour that i am thinking that this storm could go neg tilt with thundersnow too.

Man you love your thundersnow don't you?! Lol!

[Scott26]

Man you love your thundersnow don't you?! Lol!

Tim should definitely get a job at the Weather Channel. He would be perfect for it lol.

[Tom]

Just check out the placement of the trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles, very similar to the GFS Par, right???  Also, notice the ridge off the east coast hooking all the way towards Hudson bay.  That is a good sign to keep it from cutting to far north and supply the system with cold air.  This is a text book major snowstorm in the making.

[tim the weatherman]

Just check out the placement of the trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles, very similar to the GFS Par, right???  Also, notice the ridge off the east coast hooking all the way towards Hudson bay.  That is a good sign to keep it from cutting to far north and supply the system with cold air.  This is a text book major snowstorm in the making.

this is a good sign and it looks like that we are line for a major snowstorm and a potentional blizzard in the making.

[james1976]

Just check out the placement of the trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles, very similar to the GFS Par, right???  Also, notice the ridge off the east coast hooking all the way towards Hudson bay.  That is a good sign to keep it from cutting to far north and supply the system with cold air.  This is a text book major snowstorm in the making.

Still looks neutrally tilted but i have a feeling this goes negative

[Geos]

this is a good sign and it looks like that we are line for a major snowstorm and a potentional blizzard in the making.

 

If it does, it will be the first one I would experience in November! It'll be a major headline for sure.

 

JB really liking that 76-77 winter analog. 

[GDR]

[The Snowman]

Watch out, that 18z GFS-Parallel huge snowstorm is composed of erroneous sleet & ice. I don't have the WxBell p-type maps, but fishing around Tropical Tidbits shows the heavy sleet/ice accumulation where the huge snows should be.

[Geos]

Watch out, that 18z GFS-Parallel huge snowstorm is composed of erroneous sleet & ice. I don't have the WxBell p-type maps, but fishing around Tropical Tidbits shows the heavy sleet/ice accumulation where the huge snows should be.

 

Across in KS and northern MO? I figured that was too snowy to be true!

 

Below...

Good point Tim. Was just thinking of that. There will probably be a lot of low level Arctic air in that region next week.

[tim the weatherman]

Watch out, that 18z GFS-Parallel huge snowstorm is composed of erroneous sleet & ice. I don't have the WxBell p-type maps, but fishing around Tropical Tidbits shows the heavy sleet/ice accumulation where the huge snows should be.

people in the erroneous sleet and ice accumulations needs to have their flaslights candles and generators handy because it looks like they could be without power for days.

[GDR]

I think we could be looking at epic ice accumulations in the kc area! Thunder snow from no mo s ia and through the Chicago area.

[Iowawx]

00Z GFS showing lots of rain next weekend. Not liking where the Thanksgiving storm trend is going. Where's that cold for that time some of you were talking about? 

[Scott26]

Just check out the placement of the trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles, very similar to the GFS Par, right???  Also, notice the ridge off the east coast hooking all the way towards Hudson bay.  That is a good sign to keep it from cutting to far north and supply the system with cold air.  This is a text book major snowstorm in the making.

Yup, definitely a good sign. The thing is most of the moisture is going to be supplied by the gulf which will bring a lot of warm air as well.  This storm is still in fantasy land, but I'm thinking this is going to be more like a classic Fall storm. Likely a heavy deformation band of frozen precip north of the SLP, but tons of rain to the south. Reminds me of a similar setup last year in December. Could definitely see a significant severe outbreak as well south of the low especially with the wind shear and instability present.

[winterfreak]

Yeah, hard to go against climo in November if the moisture is coming from the gulf. Probably be a rain storm. At least down here.

[Money]

Euro is a HUGE storm. Sub 990 in Central IL. 

[Money]

Several GGEM ensembles get the low down in the low 980's, but of course the track is all over the map. This could be a huge storm for someone down the road. 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro = classic Iowa snow event.  

[Grizzcoat]

Obviously will change--- but looking at a major event--

24 hour totals--http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014111600/mw/ecmwf_snow_24_mw_38.png

[Grizzcoat]

from DMX AM disco---

THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED SOME ADDITIONAL EVALUATION AS A SIGNAL FOR
A STRONGER STORM IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT.

[Scott26]

Euro is a HUGE storm. Sub 990 in Central IL. 

Yup absolutely a beastly storm on the 00Z Euro. I think we should make a thread on this fairly soon.

[FV-Mike]

Crazy to think that a year ago Illinois was dealing with that large tornado outbreak.

[Money]

This is def. not Nov temperatures coming up:

 

Monday: H 18  L: 8 (WC -10 to -20)

Tuesday: H 19 L: 13

Wednesday: H 26 L: 11

Thursday: H: 23 L: 6

Friday: H: 23 L: 15

 

Average high is still above 40.

[NEJeremy]

The latest GFS almost gives us not even a drop of precip the next 16 days here in Nebraska. Hope the "big one" doesn't miss us to the south and east.... Although we have already had 3" of snow here. We don't want to overdo it this season.

[james1976]

Euro = classic Iowa snow event.

Really? I havent seen any maps. Your link didnt work. 12z run is coming out soon anyway.

[Dadio]

Wow, exciting times for everyone over here. I'll have to watch and see how this works out. Good luck everyone.

[Money]

Yeah

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

[james1976]

977? That is insane. And perfect track for my area. However, too much warm air. I really hope this thing can wrap up some cold air.

[james1976]

What do the winds look to be with a 977?? Gotta be insane.

[winterfreak]

Yay a rain storm on the new parallel GFS! That's kind of what I expect anyway lol given where the moisture will be coming from and the fact that it won't be nearly as big of a cold pool next wee. The roller coaster shall continue.

[Money]

GGEM:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

[Money]

2 days later:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif