February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The storm early in March will affect the center of the nation...looks like it will be a CO Low and ejects out into the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Fits the LRC pattern...everyone remember the Jan 4-5th storm?  It should repeat in the same areas.  IMO, the PV to the north won't allow it to be a Upper Midwest storm.  Looks like a west/east storm track that could become a big one if it phases.

[Iowawx]

The storm early in March will affect the center of the nation...looks like it will be a CO Low and ejects out into the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Fits the LRC pattern...everyone remember the Jan 4-5th storm?  It should repeat in the same areas.  IMO, the PV to the north won't allow it to be a Upper Midwest storm.  Looks like a west/east storm track that could become a big one if it phases.

It does Tom, Looks like March 3 would be the date. Hopefully it trends stronger. Would love to see a 6+ event here, maybe even 8-12 inches. Who knows. But the Jan 4-5th storm did not give us any snow during this time. Hopefully that doesn't happen this time. The storm went to south.

[Tom]

I like our chances for this to be a widespread snow storm for a lot of us.  Normally this late in the season storms tend to become juicier/stronger due to the difference in temperatures from the north and south.  Look what happened to last Thursday's system...that storm just bombed out and it didn't do that in Cycle 2.  All global models are on board for a storm system to develop somewhere in our region.

[gosaints]

Msp special

[Iowawx]

I like our chances for this to be a widespread snow storm for a lot of us.  Normally this late in the season storms tend to become juicier/stronger due to the difference in temperatures from the north and south.  Look what happened to last Thursday's system...that storm just bombed out and it didn't do that in Cycle 2.  All global models are on board for a storm system to develop somewhere in our region.

I might be worried about the PV pushing it down south. Tom, do you see that happening?? 

[East Dubzz]

Geos, that a new avatar/profile pic thing? I like it, getting me thinking about some storms!

 

As for the storm Monday, that turned into a dud real quick. And the storm next weekend, still a lot in the air. I could see the PV suppressing it south just like last time. But we'll have to see how strong that PV is this time around.

 

All I know is, after last week's amazing weather, I'm not ready for this cold again. Nothing like the first couple times, but it's still cold enough that is prevents me from enjoying any outdoor activities since I'm not a skier or snowboarder anymore.

[Iowawx]

00Z GFS still showing large storm March 2-3. But after that, there is snow just about every day through March 11th. March could be the best month of winter. Could be a lot of snow if this verifies.

 

00Z GFS snowfall through March 11. 

 

[The Snowman]

East Asia supports a storm idea, looks like it's covered up by ridging to the north of Japan. Might indicate we see suppression problems with this system, but I'd focus more on the idea that a storm looks likely.

[DominicR]

I like our chances March 3-4th.

[Geos]

Geos, that a new avatar/profile pic thing? I like it, getting me thinking about some storms!

 

As for the storm Monday, that turned into a dud real quick. And the storm next weekend, still a lot in the air. I could see the PV suppressing it south just like last time. But we'll have to see how strong that PV is this time around.

 

All I know is, after last week's amazing weather, I'm not ready for this cold again. Nothing like the first couple times, but it's still cold enough that is prevents me from enjoying any outdoor activities since I'm not a skier or snowboarder anymore.

 

Yeah that is a picture of lightning next to Ayers Rock, Australia. I was searching lightning pictures and I liked it!

 

Forecast has dropped snow chances to 50% with the Monday night system. 

We need the PV to retreat to where it belongs (towards Hudson Bay) if we want a fair chance at a storm with getting suppression. 

 

I took the time and picked up the multiple twigs that fell onto of the snow Thursday night. The snow cover can pretty much support my weight with minimal sinking in.

[East Dubzz]

Temps were a bit of a bust last night. Supposed to get down to 2, but it only dropped to 8. Hope that continues!

[East Dubzz]

Just looked at the 00z Euro. Wow, can you say suppression? Has the event this upcoming Saturday being suppressed and then another wave on the following Monday being suppressed. Showing some nice accumulations for Missouri, the OV, and then the East Coast again, but that is exactly why I didn't want this strong on cold air to be in place, because it's just gonna push stuff south.

 

And the unfortunate thing is, once the PV dissipates, we're probably going to get a cutter that cuts too far north again.

 

But look on the bright side, I get a low of -12 Tuesday night....

[james1976]

cold and dry sucks. cold and snow is awesome.

[Iowawx]

Hopefully it doesn't surpress too far south. Hopefully the PV isn't so strong. 

[bud2380]

Storm for next weekend 3/1 and 3/2 time frame. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/dhcqSNm.gif

 

The larger storm just after this stays well to the south in Missouri and Ohio Valley. 

[james1976]

surppression. cold air dominates

[Scott26]

Wednesday looks like the coldest day. Temperatures may struggle to get above zero until the afternoon. Extremely brutal, especially this late in the winter.

[The Snowman]

Made a new blog post, for anyone interested. Wasn't sure where to put it, since it covers February into a bit of April, but here goes. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/02/thoughts-on-enso-east-coast-snowstorms.html

 

I'd be looking out for an East US snow event sometime next month, and even a north Plains snow event a bit after that.

[East Dubzz]

Just purchased a La Crosse Technology WS-1612AL-IT weather station. Should be here by Wednesday. Pumped!

[dubuque473]

Boring pattern for the next 7.

 

See you in March...IF something pops up. Otherwise have a great summer and see you all next fall!

[East Dubzz]

Boring pattern for the next 7.

 

See you in March...IF something pops up. Otherwise have a great summer and see you all next fall!

Hope something pops up so we can see you around still, but if not, enjoy the summer and warmer weather!

[Geos]

Well at least it will be a sunny week overall. Nice and bright today. 

 

Was supposed to be 9° or 10° this morning, but was only 12°.   

[East Dubzz]

Well at least it will be a sunny week overall. Nice and bright today. 

 

Was supposed to be 9° or 10° this morning, but was only 12°.

 

I have a feeling some temps may be a little too cold this week. You've said it many times before, but it's just so hard to get temps so cold this far in the year. Will be cold, but I don't know if I can buy the -12 I have forecasted Tuesday night yet. Also have -3 forecasted tonight, will be interesting to see how that turns out.

[East Dubzz]

Next Monday a little more interesting on the 12z Euro, however, I don't see that happening if that high pressure is up north like it's showing--would likely be suppressed.

[Geos]

Next Monday a little more interesting on the 12z Euro, however, I don't see that happening if that high pressure is up north like it's showing--would likely be suppressed.

 

Starting this morning I've been taking snap shots of the 7 day point forecast. I want to see how accurate it ends up being. 1° ahead of the forecasted high here today.

It's something to do, since the weather is boring.

[East Dubzz]

That Euro runs makes me so depressed. It's well below average basically through the entire. Heck, even at HR 240 in its last frame, if decides to throw temps well below freezing at us. Just no fun to look at!

[Geos]

Looks like a serious ice jam is in progress downstream from La Salle.

Possibly a faulty reading. Was reading over 36' at 1:15.

 

[bud2380]

Ed can u post the euro? Accuweather is way behind

[Geos]

That Euro runs makes me so depressed. It's well below average basically through the entire. Heck, even at HR 240 in its last frame, if decides to throw temps well below freezing at us. Just no fun to look at!

 

At least in the last frame it shows warming in Canada finally!

 

[Iowawx]

18Z NAM came in wetter for Iowa for Monday. About 1-3 it looks like. Maybe the GFS will follow. 

 

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I agree with your frustration, East Dubzz, and commiserate with you as well. Not a great pattern this winter for major snowstorms in our area, seems they all miss just SE or just NW, yet Milwaukee has still managed almost 60" lol.

[Geos]

If indeed it does not snow this week, this month produced 16.9" of snow. Currently this month is almost as cold as February 2007 (-9.6°).

 

Up to 26° this afternoon. Warm enough to melt more snow around grass patches and off the roof.

[Geos]

Latest GFS shows Wednesday being colder than Thursday in terms of 850 mb temps. Been watching the -30° line trend as far south as LSE on earlier runs to within 50 miles of the Canadian/MN border this run.

 

18z GFS shows a shift coming about the 7th. Instead of low pressures in the Continental US, everything starts shifting north. New England and Quebec start seeing the core of the cold.

[East Dubzz]

Down to 11 here. Really interested to see if we hit below zero or not.

 

00z NAM and 4k NAM are basically a complete miss for tomorrow, and 00z RGEM would support maybe half an inch or so. What a dud that storm turned into.

 

Interested to see what tonight's runs show for the weekend and next week. My guess will be suppression.

[Snowshoe]

NWS GRB

 

SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN 45 DAYS WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES IN GREEN
BAY THIS WINTER. WE SHOULD HAVE AROUND 5 MORE THIS WEEK...WHICH
WILL BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 48 DAYS ESTABLISHED DURING THE
WINTER OF 1976-1977.

[Tom]

I'm still expecting a good storm to hit our region in the 3/1-3/3 period.  Feeling very confident in what the LRC has in store for us next weekend.

[Iowawx]

Should be closer to 3/2-3/3 it looks like. Hopefully suppression can stay out. We don't want this to go south. Tom, does the LRC show more storms after this? Could we still see snow after this in March? After the 3/2 storm? Or could that be the end? 

[Geos]

Down to 15° here. Rate of descent has slowed up a bit. Supposed to be 4° come morning.

[Tom]

The next storm in line would be the Nov 15th storm that brought Illinois a massive severe wx outbreak in Cycle 1.  Then it tracked right thru N IL in Cycle 2 and brought rain.  Both times it SLP tracked right thru N IL.  We'll see what it brings this time around.  This could very well be another big surprise late in the season.  The expected time frame would be around 3/8-3/10 period.  This would be a system coming out of the southern Plains and riding NE into the Great Lakes.

[clintbeed1993]

GFS gives healthy snow to a huge part of the Plains/Ohio Valley.  Definitely has the look of a suppressed and progressive system though.  We need this thing to bomb out.  I'm really pulling for a Colorado Low.  We need a bowling bowl to plow us here in Nebraska.