February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Jaycee]

Man the plains forum is dead.

It is. I frequent the Lakes here just so I can see the EURO/GGEM snowfall. It kind of sucks. Winterfreak, you are golden on this storm. I'm 80% sure that you get 6"+, Kansas City just looks to be in a really good spot, as well as Chicago, as always .. James, I really hope we get a northern shift too! I'm sick of this blowing dust lol

[Scott26]

The GFS has been consistently showing a area of high pressure during the timeframe suppressing the storm to the south. Considering the GFS progressive trend I have to go with the Euro for now. I really don't buy a super suppressed storm. I don't see this bombing out either, but more of a west to east storm everyone can benefit from.

[winterfreak]

Beatiful.http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012800&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=192l

[winterfreak]

Nevermind that link.

[winterfreak]

It is. I frequent the Lakes here just so I can see the EURO/GGEM snowfall. It kind of sucks. Winterfreak, you are golden on this storm. I'm 80% sure that you get 6"+, Kansas City just looks to be in a really good spot, as well as Chicago, as always .. James, I really hope we get a northern shift too! I'm sick of this blowing dust lol

We have been getting burned all winter so I have no confidence in this thing. We'll see. You guys definitely deserve a biggy more than any of us.

[Tom]

00z GGEM took a big shift SE...model mayhem continues. 

 

 

[Tom]

00z GFS had a tanking -PNA (approx. -2.0) and a near neural AO/NAO.  IMO, such a southerly track is not in the cards.  There should be a potent SE Ridge instead.

[Money]

This thing is still 7-8+ days away. Models will continue to struggle. No point in getting too serious about the track at this point until after the next system passes (the one on Sat/Sun) The big thing for me is that it shows some type of big system until then.

[Tom]

Bingo, the fact that its showing a big time storm is a plus.

[Tom]

00z Euro slowed the big system down and dug it way farther south into TX this run..

[DominicR]

00z Euro slowed the big system down and dug it way farther south into TX this run..

 

Ah I figured. Sometimes it will hold down there. So early in game nice to look at.

[Tom]

Bad run also on the 00z Euro...showing a sheared wave...

 

[Tom]

Yup, I remember even with the GHD Blizzard Euro did the same thing this far out.  Still days away and we will see this happen run to run.  I'll start paying attention around Friday or so.

[FiNsTa]

chicago gets nothing hardly 

Many days away man lots can change between now and then. Don't buy into one model run.

[DominicR]

Skilling:

 

[midwest buildit]

I dont understand how this is the 5th snowiest winter, are we talken to date or total annual. cause according to this from noaa, theres a whole lot more high snow totals than like that pic above that skilling is showing.

 

am i confused or looking at it the wrong way?

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=chi_seasonal_snow

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I dont understand how this is the 5th snowiest winter, are we talken to date or total annual. cause according to this from noaa, theres a whole lot more high snow totals than like that pic above that skilling is showing.

 

am i confused or looking at it the wrong way?

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=chi_seasonal_snow

 

Yes, based on the graphic, it is the 5th snowiest winter for Chicago to date.

[Tom]

I took a look at the 00z Euro 500mb Ensembles and it is pumping an east coast ridge and there is no way a system can ride into such a ridge and produce snow so far south.  IMO, future runs will indicate a GL Cutter and models will start noticing the -PNA (SE Ridge) and bring a formidable Cutter.

[Scott26]

I took a look at the 00z Euro 500mb Ensembles and it is pumping an east coast ridge and there is no way a system can ride into such a ridge and produce snow so far south.  IMO, future runs will indicate a GL Cutter and models will start noticing the -PNA (SE Ridge) and bring a formidable Cutter.

You're going to love the 12Z GFS run Tom.

[Money]

GFS is back with the storm. Goes from N. Texas to S. IN/W. OH

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I took a look at the 00z Euro 500mb Ensembles and it is pumping an east coast ridge and there is no way a system can ride into such a ridge and produce snow so far south.  IMO, future runs will indicate a GL Cutter and models will start noticing the -PNA (SE Ridge) and bring a formidable Cutter.

 

I agree, the PNA trends are looking good for this being a nice (perhaps monster) cutter if the PV to the north isn't too strong.

[Money]

GFS with 6-12 for MKE/Chicago this run.

[Sciascia]

Between 6z 2/4 and 6z 2/5 (24hrs), 10-12 falls over Chicagoland. Would be cool to see verify. But it's still way out there, so lets enjoy 25 more shifts, haha.

 

EDIT: Hell, the end result of this GFS run is like snow porn. 20-22 cumulative inches at 300hrs.

[Tony]

WOW

[winterfreak]

Well that sucks. Still a ways to go.

[Tom]

The LRC had back to back systems in December so I'm not surprised the 12z GFS is showing back to back major snowstorms in our region. 

 

Edit: Isn't it amazing how powerful this tool can be to predict storm systems weeks in advance???

[ChicagoToSeattle]

The LRC had back to back systems in December so I'm not surprised the 12z GFS is showing back to back major snowstorms in our region. 

 

Edit: Isn't it amazing how powerful this tool can be to predict storm systems weeks in advance???

quick question -- What is the LRC?

[East Dubzz]

Anyone remember the GHD Blizzard? If I am correct, there was a large high pressure system sitting up around the Dakotas, and it was a big cutter that produced widespread snow. But I remember that high pressure because that was the main concern, that it would feed too much dry air and keep us over here from getting too much snow. Now, that said, I still got a foot from that storm, but some of the model runs are bringing back that memory, showing something similar. Now I don't know if it'll track far enough NW to hit me, but it certainly does look like the GHD Blizzard is some ways.

[Tom]

Meteorologist Gary Lezak (from Kansas City) developed the"Lezak Recuring Cycle" also known as the LRC.  He figured out a unique wx pattern that develops every year during the Fall around October 1 thru mid November.  This pattern then cycles through the next 10 months.  Each LRC Cycle is usually around 52-58 days long and you can use this tool to predict storm systems, troughs, ridges, etc.  It has been spot on this year tracking storms and we are seeing it come into fruition once again with the storms poised to hit our region for the next 2 weeks.  The most active part of the cycle is among us and should last throughout February.

[Sciascia]

Interested to see if meteorologists will mention the 4th-5th system in their TV segments starting today/tonight as those days will be in the 7 day forecasts by late afternoon.

[Tom]

I'm sure Skilling will be mentioning something today in his afternoon show.  He started mentioning the GHD Blizzard about 8 days before the storm and then everyone else started to talk about it once it was a week away.

[ChicagoToSeattle]

Meteorologist Gary Lezak (from Kansas City) developed the"Lezak Recuring Cycle" also known as the LRC.  He figured out a unique wx pattern that develops every year during the Fall around October 1 thru mid November.  This pattern then cycles through the next 10 months.  Each LRC Cycle is usually around 52-58 days long and you can use this tool to predict storm systems, troughs, ridges, etc.  It has been spot on this year tracking storms and we are seeing it come into fruition once again with the storms poised to hit our region for the next 2 weeks.  The most active part of the cycle is among us and should last throughout February.

thanks! I recall reading about this a couple of years ago on the Accuweather boards. My memory was that it has validity but it was way off in the 2011-12 winter?

[Tom]

I'm not sure how the LRC did back in 2011-2012 winter, but I do know it nailed the very warm Spring and long hot summer.

[Tony]

Can someone post gem qpf map. I hear it is out of control.

[Geos]

Lot of plumes taking the AO into positive territory now. 

 

[East Dubzz]

Lot of plumes taking the AO into positive territory now.

 

If AO goes positive, that could potentially (and I say potentially) help with making this thing a monster, couldn't it?

[Tom]

Tony, if Wx Bell was working I'd post it but it stalled at HR 96...

[james1976]

i cant believe how active the GFS is! system after system and cold air!

[Tom]

East Dubzz, the AO wont dictate if this storm becomes a monster.  Phasing is the key and if it goes neg tilt.  AO can also dictate storm track but that's primarily for those in the Plains.

[Geos]

If AO goes positive, that could potentially (and I say potentially) help with making this thing a monster, couldn't it?

 

A neutral AO would allow the storm not to become compressed to the south. Any higher, then I'd be worried about it cutting too far NW with the increasing NAO.