Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 One GFS model develops a strong low and produces widespread qpf with 1+ in a lot of areas. Rest are about the same as op 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 It actually brings a sub 1000 panhandle hook low up to Chicago around the hr 120 mark. Majority of the ensemble members are wetter than the op Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 06Z GFS is pretty weak with the storm this weekend. Hopefully it can get stronger as the event gets closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 The "old" GFS is usually the last model to play catch-up. The parallel GFS is more generous with the snow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 DVN talking 1-2" across the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 From MKX:  .SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUMMODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGHSATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHTBRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...MAINLY DURING SATURDAY EVENINGAND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS NOT A TON OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THISSYSTEM...BUT FAIRLY DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FOR A TIME...AND THEDENDRITE GROWTH ZONE VIA GFS SOUNDINGS IS ABOUT 250-300 MB DEEPDURING THE PERIOD OF BEST LIFT. STILL THINKING ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOWWITH THIS SYSTEM.SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH UPPER TROUGHINGREMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL SEE A COUPLE EMBEDDEDSHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH...BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT WITHTHESE WEAK WAVES TO CONSIDER ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 NAM has system strengthening as it moves into Iowa. Don't know if im buying that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I am thinking that this system will get surpressed, at least for my area and probably for some on this board as well. The reason why I am leaning towards this way is because of the strong surge of Arctic Air that will be invading the country and parts of the gulf coast too, if you can believe that. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS op model showing a bit more snow coming across the Plains on this run. Well only so far...   Newer GFS  Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I am thinking that this system will get surpressed, at least for my area and probably for some on this board as well. The reason why I am leaning towards this way is because of the strong surge of Arctic Air that will be invading the country and parts of the gulf coast too, if you can believe that.Dont know if I completely buy that. Â Last system showed the same thing multiple times days out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z GGEM thru 96Hr... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Wow GGEM is pretty awful. Way north. Wonder which one will win out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z Euro sends out 1 wave Sat/Sun period but then tries to really dig this trough into the southern Plains with the 2nd wave.  Its so close to phasing with the northern stream.  If it can time this a bit earlier, this is getting real close to becoming something big. KS/MO do real well this run and so does the southern Midwest.... Edit: Sorry, that was the 00z run...this is the new 12z run and notice the shift NW with the band of snow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z Euro sends out 1 wave Sat/Sun period but then tries to really dig this trough into the southern Plains with the 2nd wave.  Its so close to phasing with the northern stream.  If it can time this a bit earlier, this is getting real close to becoming something big. KS/MO do real well this run and so does the southern Midwest....Does that seem possible Tom?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Does that seem possible Tom??The way the trend is going, I wouldn't see why not and the fact the Euro is still developing the 2nd wave down in the southern Plains is an "eye catcher". Â It didn't have that 24 hours ago, but back to back runs its showing signs. Â With the arctic HP plunging down into the northern Plains, 1029 Bermuda HP off the east coast...it has eyes up the souther Midwest/OV. Â If this can phase a bit more earlier in future runs, this will get very interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 So close. When does the system develop on the euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 So close. When does the system develop on the euro?Near the Appalachians.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Man, this thing is really far south. I'm not liking it. I'd rather have it phase early and cut NW, hopefully the High Pressure to the Northwest of us doesn't yield it from doing so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 looking more like a split flow event for the 1st wave. Â possible northern stream dominance with a little dendritic fluff in november Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z Euro sends out 1 wave Sat/Sun period but then tries to really dig this trough into the southern Plains with the 2nd wave.  Its so close to phasing with the northern stream.  If it can time this a bit earlier, this is getting real close to becoming something big. KS/MO do real well this run and so does the southern Midwest.... Edit: Sorry, that was the 00z run...this is the new 12z run and notice the shift NW with the band of snow...Yes, Kansas City and St. Louis are in store for several inches as for now. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yeah, looking pretty weak. Inch or two. Still 3 days away so we got time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I see I'm sitting pretty with the EURO and not that much worse with the GFS. The GGEM and NAM are way north. Go away high pressure! What gives? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 SREF spits out 3 inches here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 The NAM says Jack Squat is coming to visit on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'm siding with the Nam on this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 NAM still taking the north route. Interesting. Looks like it wants to develop something to the SW at hr 84 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS is stronger/more amped towards Kansas etc. It dies out though as it heads east. 6-8 storm total in most of KS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Looks like LOT is going with an inch with this system. Sounds about right as I don't think this will turn into anything more than that as models are not showing anything of substance. And as I type this 18z GFS throws Northern IL a bone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 GB AFD talking about a potential for a deeper/stronger system if the northern stream can catch up "If a deeper northern polar shortwave can catch up to it...potential is there for a stronger/deeper system" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png through 78: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_asnow_us_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Rooting for a phasing (or partial phase) of the northern stream. Maybe that is what the EURO and CMC are seeing. I can see the bigger potential here... A timing issue currently. Still thinking 2" is quite possible. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 OP GFS is much more wetter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Rooting for a phasing (or partial phase) of the northern stream. Maybe that is what the EURO and CMC are seeing. I can see the bigger potential here... A timing issue currently. Still thinking 2" is quite possible.The 18zGFS run with a 15:1 ratio might get us a couple inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z Parallel GFS HR 90 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111212/gfsp_asnow_us_16.png 18z Parallel GFS HR 84: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_asnow_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Fwiw: a lot of models were too quick to kick out the energy for the departing storm. Not by a lot, but if thus was the case with this system with the southern piece it would mean a big difference in totals. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 (edited) From GRR.Sounds like they're going bullish.   AFD "THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE DEEPENS UP CONSIDERABLY AND THERE IS BETTER LIFT JUST UNDER THE DGZ. SO WE MAY END UP WITH A HEADLINE EVENT. I BUMPED UP POPS AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS SEEING ACCUMULATIONS." SREF plumes showing snow in the area. (Just click on a location dot nearest you) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20141112&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=UGN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.45158446278519&mLON=-88.715016015625&mTYP=roadmap Edited November 13, 2014 by Geos Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 And the 0z NAM is off and running! ~ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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