Money Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 this is exllenct news for winter lovers like you tom and there is a huge difference from last month to today and the southren jet will play a factor and with the el nino morphed it a modoki el nino tat means that the north pacific and with the ao going negative too. http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20140630031220/epicrapbattlesofhistory/images/b/bf/Doctor_wait_what.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 also weather.com is saying that winter lovers has bad news about thehttp://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-86_ltst_4namus_enus_980x551.jpg cold weather and they are saying about the warmer air instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 i do know why the weather channel,accuweather and our local mets getting their warm ideas from the cpc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Looks like around December 13 and 14 we need to break out the shorts again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Just saw Skilling's forecast and he's seeing in the 11-15 Day range an average of 14F above normal temps. Let's do a case study and utilize what the JMA Weeklies showed today and once we get closer to Dec 15-19 we'll see who got it right. I know all he can do is use what the models are showing him, but "we" on this Forum discuss the different scenarios and/or forecasting techniques in more depth than what a local met on TV will do for their viewers on TV. "We" don't discuss different scenarios though. It's always the same message 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 I purposely saved these maps off of Wx Bell during Thanksgiving week because they would not be available for me to look back at today to illustrate the models behavior in the Day 10-15 range. Do they even look anywhere close to what is happening today on Dec 4th???? Nope!Where is the ridge along the east coast and near Alberta Canada and the Dakotas??? The reality is, those same areas are seeing below normal temps and there is a trough positioned. Finally, what have I been saying when it comes to the models bias when handling energy in the GOA??? It wants to swing it towards NW NAMER/S AK. Look at the Euro Ensembles take in the GOA on November 25th for its run Day 9-10....now look what is happening today in the GOA....Bingo. The storm system is centered much farther off the coast and inside the region of waters that are colder! Next time you want to argue a torch, show me the facts as to why. As I have done over and over again, I try to show you the models behaviors so to NOT get bought into the torch in the longer range. Ok, I had enough posting for today. Time to go enjoy some sunshine as the clouds begin to clear here in AZ after a rainy morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 "We" don't discuss different scenarios though. It's always the same message Ok, maybe out in the Plains but here in the Midwest/Lakes it has been rather different. Wouldn't ya say so?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Looks like around December 13 and 14 we need to break out the shorts again!I'll remember that one...you may be bringing out another pair of long johns instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 12z Euro is looking pretty toasty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Time will tell, but I'm confident that December will end up with a positive departure for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Maybe the models actually get it right this time in the longer range. If I were to bet and put my money on it, I don't think I would believe what they are showing for late next weeks torch. Maybe the Plains, but not from the Midwest and points East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 This is off Topic but....Arnold's Back! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf5a3cXbM-I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 12z Euro is looking pretty toasty..pretty toasty mabe pretty chilly instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 This thread is getting comical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 This thread is getting comicalSpicing things up...ey? Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 pretty toasty mabe pretty chilly insteadLOOOOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.giflol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 does tom or geos know about anything about the ao and the nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 December 1998 redux maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.giflol Here is a quote from Mike Caplan regarding CPC's expected Blow Torch:This is a NOAA outlook for the period Dec 12-19. This is basically what we call a blowtorch pattern where almost all of the country is expected to be bathed in mild Pacific air. This pattern shift is supposed to start about a week from today in fact. There is virtual unanimity among the various computer models that this will occur. I will merely point out, that late in October, the expectation based on the forecast models was that November would be quite mild. We shall see. Sound familiar??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 To summarize:- A new set of successful analog years is predicting a warm month in December, followed by a cold month in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 18Z GFS shows a fairly active pattern, but at least here in eastern Nebraska we don't drop below freezing after 12/7 through the end of the run on the 20th!This warmth has been real consistent on all of the models for quite a while. This hasn't been just a set of runs on one or 2 days. We still have time for adjustment obviously, but there haven't been any real substantial changes since this warmth started being advertised, unlike previous examples that keep getting brought up where the warmth always disappears.I'm pretty confident, again at least here in Nebraska, we will be warm through at least the middle of the month maybe even to around the 20th. That's fine with me after seeing our heating bill for November.Definitely not a December freeze for a large part of the country. We'll see what happens towards Christmas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 but one thing i think this month will be colder than our local mets and andrew at the weather centre is saying that tom did say about the east asia theroyand just by the sst are with the cooler waters is eating away the warmer waters in ninos 1 and 2 so that means that the el nino will be morphed into a modoki el nino and not by looking at analog guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Not saying it won't warm-up, but I do remember the CPC showing the lower 48 being all above average in November. If we do have a warm December we'll just have to cancel it out with November and hope we see some nice snow come January! Maybe when more computing power comes to the models, we will get much more accurate readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Towards Christmas and beyond... 12z EURO ensemble control run 500 hPa heights. Big trough replaces the torch. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Towards Christmas and beyond... 12z EURO ensemble control run 500 hPa heights. Big trough replaces the torch. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-46008700-1417750683.png http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-97259700-1417750696.png http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-96158800-1417750706.pngThat middle image Dear God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Lol you're going to get all the weenies excited now Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yep, just as I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Lol you're going to get all the weenies excited now Geos. No one should really get excited about weeks 3 and 4, so take it like a grain of salt! A day 10 forecast could easily bust, just like a 500 hPa map at Day 20. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Towards Christmas and beyond... 12z EURO ensemble control run 500 hPa heights. Big trough replaces the torch. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-46008700-1417750683.png http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-97259700-1417750696.png http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-96158800-1417750706.pngi agree the middle pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 i agree the middle pic. I know... it looks like something out of last January. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 it looks like the polar vortex is placed over westren nebraska in the second pic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Last week it was looking that this week; by now would be above normal, but that's not the case in this area so far.Nothing really above 40° in my forecast until the 11th now. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Last week it was looking that this week; by now would be above normal, but that's not the case in this area so far.Nothing really above 40° in my forecast until the 11th now.Yup, can't have short term memory in this department. I remember Thanksgiving week the models were saying torch around the Midwest/Lakes for the first week of December. Did that happen??? Too much cold air has infiltrated the pattern and that funneled into our region. Seasonal temps sure felt like it was a torch compared to how November worked out but not really above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yup, can't have short term memory in this department. I remember Thanksgiving week the models were saying torch around the Midwest/Lakes for the first week of December. Did that happen??? Too much cold air has infiltrated the pattern and that funneled into our region. Seasonal temps sure felt like it was a torch compared to how November worked out but not really above normal.i'm thinking that we might not have a blow torch at all like skilling and the cpc uis saying also like andrew at the weather centre is saying by new successful analog guidance predicts warm december cold january like he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 0z EURO pushes the warm air back even farther. Still 850 MB temps around 0 at HR 192 (12/13) around ORD/MKE etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 0z HR 192: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120500/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png 0z HR 216 (last night) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120400/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 0z EURO says what warm up? 850's don't get above +5 the entire run. Guessing we would be looking at 35-40 temps compared to 50-60 the GFS was showing. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120500/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png HR 216: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120500/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png HR 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Your pretty close Money- I ran the raw #'s for MSP /MKE/ORD and DSM. Granted these are the temps at noon- so add a few more degrees if you want.MSP higest temp according to the above was 3.9CMKE 4.1CORD.................................................................5.2CDSM 9.3C also shows a decent cool down middle of next week. It's just beyond the 10 day that I think will have the warmest temps region wide. Always right before a cool down does it get the warmest. The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Put away the shorts and grab the long johns because the deep freeze is getting turned on prepare the shovels and snowblowers because snow will follow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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