December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Hoping the 3rd storm can come NW more. Still way over a week to go.

[Scott26]

The January 3rd system is definitely one to watch. Pretty good consistency from the Euro and GFS showing something big in that time frame.

[Geos]

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas!  

 

The sun was out here from 10:30 and on to sunset. That part right there made it a really nice day!

42° for a high, looking at mid to upper 40s tomorrow according to Ramsey.

 

Wish that storm on the EURO was a lot closer!

[bud2380]

Hoping the 3rd storm can come NW more. Still way over a week to go.

Here is the eps control. Is this far enough nw? It's too bad we once again are tracking a storm beyond 7 days out. Everyone so far that has shown up in this time frame has failed to produce anything major for most people on this forum. Certainly not in eastern Iowa.

 

[james1976]

Here is the eps control. Is this far enough nw? It's too bad we once again are tracking a storm beyond 7 days out. Everyone so far that has shown up in this time frame has failed to produce anything major for most people on this forum. Certainly not in eastern Iowa.

 

image.jpg

LOL....well we have something to track but yeah. long range has been the only thing to track so far this season.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

12z Euro looking better and better for the Jan 3rd Midwest/Great Lakes system.  Getting closer each run with a better phase and with arctic air in toe, this will be a fun system to track.  It's fascinating to see this evolve in the modeling when about 1 month ago today I saw this system coming around during this time frame.  LRC baby!

 

Have a Merry Christmas Everyone!

 

I say this tongue in cheek as well, but you have too much time on your hands.  What's even the point of looking more than a week out when models can't even give us something accurate within two days?

[james1976]

GFS has the 3rd storm heading to the east coast. LMAO. Hope we get a cutter.

[bud2380]

Parallel gfs has the storm still and would bring a decent amount of snow to most of Iowa. So far off though

[tim the weatherman]

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/12/FEATURE12262014.jpg

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

[Tom]

The Jan 3rd/4th storm is going to be a major cutter like I have always expressed. I know the Snowman expected an East Coast storm, but I have to disagree. When I saw the radar imagery back on Nov 24th and saw a circular motion cutting up thru the OV I knew this would cycle back thru during this time frame. Here we are, 1 month later and the models are "seeing" the energy. Watch this unfold boys and girls. Enjoy the show.

[gabel23]

It's staggering to see that Tim, thanks! Crazy how things are completely opposite for you guys in just one year. Thank El Niño and positive nao/ao readings for that; good news is we are going into the part of the LRC that should be much more active for all!

[tim the weatherman]

The Jan 3rd/4th storm is going to be a major cutter like I have always expressed. I know the Snowman expected an East Coast storm, but I have to disagree. When I saw the radar imagery back on Nov 24th and saw a circular motion cutting up thru the OV I knew this would cycle back thru during this time frame. Here we are, 1 month later and the models are "seeing" the energy. Watch this unfold boys and girls. Enjoy the show.

we like to see a snowfall total map please of this storm.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like niko could get in on the action too.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

looks like the 546 line is south of kankakee il.

[The Snowman]

The Jan 3rd/4th storm is going to be a major cutter like I have always expressed. I know the Snowman expected an East Coast storm, but I have to disagree. When I saw the radar imagery back on Nov 24th and saw a circular motion cutting up thru the OV I knew this would cycle back thru during this time frame. Here we are, 1 month later and the models are "seeing" the energy. Watch this unfold boys and girls. Enjoy the show.

The Typhoon Rule supports a storm track similar to this previous Thanksgiving storm, but further east. I'll gladly eat my words (since that would be a big snowstorm here) if it verifies, but I'm sticking with a further east trajectory, especially given the rather zonal flow after energy departs the West, leaving the nation in a neutral PNA position with pressing Arctic HP from the north.

[Tom]

@ Snowman, this will be another system mimicking what happened yesterday, except, this system will have arctic nature involved. Won't track east, may even amplify to track thru S I'll. Gotta say, this is a reminisent '77/'78 pattern. Great Lakes nation.

[The Snowman]

@ Snowman, this will be another system mimicking what happened yesterday, except, this system will have arctic nature involved. Won't track east, may even amplify to track thru S I'll. Gotta say, this is a reminisent '77/'78 pattern. Great Lakes nation.

This system will indeed have the Arctic nature involved; however, I've seen it happen time and time again where model guidance is unable to grasp the Arctic high's strength. 

 

Saying this not in a derogatory manner, but I'm intrigued to know what components you believe will have this storm cut north, even further west of where we saw the Christmas Eve storm track.

[Grizzcoat]

For the 2nd-3rd potential event-- 24 hour snow totals ending 18Z on Jan 3rd--

[Tom]

@ Snowman, if you look at the +AO/NAO and -EPO and -PNA its a classic "cutter" look. Not say it will cut farther west then the Christmas Eve storm. The energy from this system to me will ne characteristic of a Split Flow pattern and dive thru Cali and eject from the deep south. Similar to Nov 24th. Pattern Recognition is my ultimate play on this one.

[The Snowman]

@ Snowman, if you look at the +AO/NAO and -EPO and -PNA its a classic "cutter" look. Not say it will cut farther west then the Christmas Eve storm. The energy from this system to me will ne characteristic of a Split Flow pattern and dive thru Cali and eject from the deep south. Similar to Nov 24th. Pattern Recognition is my ultimate play on this one.

I'm planning on making a post later today on this storm, so for now I'll go off of the "cutter" look, which I'm seeing you are implying occurred with the Nov. 24th storm. I'd like to dig a bit deeper into that storm and make a few comparisons.

 

Note the 500mb height pattern when the energy first dropped onshore. We saw a neutrally-tilted trough enter the Southwest and  quickly progress eastward.

 

 

Unlike what we're expecting, we saw a tight Pacific jet stream pushing the energy onshore, with no prevailing -EPO pattern. Nevertheless, a -PNA regime showed itself in a developing Southeast ridge. Note the positioning of a lobe of the PV north of the Hudson Bay. 

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_test_20141124.gif

 

By the time we got to the storm actually moving north into the Midwest, we saw a +PNA signal with ridging over the West Coast, in addition to a rather strong Southeast ridge. Note the placement of the PV lobe, still displaced north of the Hudson Bay.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122600/gfs_z500_vort_namer_33.png

Compare all of this to the projected environment come early January. We will see energy drop into the Southwest, and actually close off, instead of pushing eastward. When it does so, the energy will observe a positive tilt when it hits the Central Plains, only then transitioning to a neutral tilt as a slight jet streak forms around the base of the trough. 

 

Then comes the wrench in the system. We see a lobe of the PV displaced well south of its location on 11/24, now on the border of the US and Canada. This, as well as strong Arctic high pressure in the Northern Plains pressing southwards, indicates a suppression mechanism on nearly all levels. This, in turn, pushes the phased jet stream southward, and the system then follows suit, maintaining a southward track. Not to mention the wave remains open and actually weakens as it pushes eastward on this run of the GFS, GGEM, and the previous 2 runs of the ECMWF. Only the GFS-Parallel is able to force the storm into a negative tilt, and that comes with the PV lobe displaced well north of other guidance. 

 

Perhaps the thing that tells me that this storm will go east is the Typhoon Rule. Unlike what happened in Japan for the Christmas storm (strong low in the Sea of Japan, second low skirting up the coast to phase), this storm in Japan will see the low skirt up the southern coast of east Japan, but then drift out to sea instead of hug the coast. I'm not seeing a favorable scenario for a "cutter", especially with everything discussed above.

[Tom]

Snowman, I applaud your detailed analysis of the 500mb patter 8-9 days out of the forecast system which you and I clealry are predicting. Last month I recall you utilizing a specific mechanism to predict this system to be an East Coast storm. Maybe you should explain again on thos forum what it was so our "audience" can see.

 

When I predict and/or forecast, I look at the overall pattern. I'm a trader at "heart", pattern recognition, and this tool has been favorable on all aspects of life.

 

Speaking of this system, I find it very interesting that in following the "LRC" for years, the LRC is very uselful pin pointing significant "energy" cycles. Having said that, the Jan 3rd/4th systmem is a significant "energy" system and one that will follow the track of its Cycle #1 partner. You can see the pattern allign itself towards a Lakes Cutter, esp the teleconnections. I respect your detailed analogy, I'm more simplistic, its done me well over the years.

[Grizzcoat]

Either way--- It's fun following and learning from Tom and Snowman. Will be interesting going forward the next week or so. Is it not possible to not get a cutter and still cover most of  Plains - upper midwest AND the east Coast with decent snows???

[FV-Mike]

As we move through this winter I keep trying to think of a similar winter season. For the chicago area I think 1998-1999 might be a good season to compare. There was multiple days in the 60's in December and I think the month only ended up with 1 inch of snow. We all know that we were hit with the massive storm on jan 2 and the month was relatively snowy. Not saying a storm of the same size will hit but interesting to note. Below is a link that shows the daily weather for each month/day.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=ordmonthly

 

Here's to hoping the pattern will adjust

[NEJeremy]

Suppression and strong "H's" always scare me, so I'm worried about this stuff staying way south, especially further west like we are in Nebraska

[gosaints]

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/7dTDeptUS.png

 

This is what became of our cold christmas

[gabel23]

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/7dTDeptUS.png

 

This is what became of our cold christmas

 

 

 

Pretty much spot on to NOAA'S December forecast. I'm shocked, winter usually plays out opposite of what NOAA shows! Kudos to them for getting it right for once! 

[tim the weatherman]

12z gfs at hour(186) low over southren il.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

[Hawkeye]

12z parallel GFS is big-time suppressed, just a weak system on the gulf coast.

[Tony]

At least something to track next week.

 

Unfortunately it looks like Chicagoland will be a shutout for snow for the month of December. Hopefully January will be a stormy month to make up for the lack of precip (snow) for December.

[Money]

ggem looks solid. Shows another system developing at 240 as well

[james1976]

Chicago gets destroyed on 12z GFS...even clips Iowa. A long way to go. Definitely gonna be a storm though.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_asnow_ncus_33.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_asnow_us_33.png

[tim the weatherman]

could be negativly tilted storm.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_z500_vort_us_32.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_z500_vort_us_33.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_z500a_us_32.png

[gosaints]

Or it could follow the parallel put to sea

[Grizzcoat]

Or it could follow the parallel put to sea

Or follow about the last 12,779 storms "guided" at hour 180+ on the GFS  that  actually amounted to kissing your sister over a trace amount. Be real people, be glad you have a sister..

[tim the weatherman]

but one thing i do see that this storm is not going out to sea because if you get the pna to go negative with a southeast ridge and with the nao to stay where it's at so that means this storm will be a greatlakes cutter.

[Hawkeye]

If this storm materializes, it will be racing ene'ward and will be in and out in a flash.

[tim the weatherman]

this storm might be a thundersnow event too.