tim the weatherman Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 the way i found out by the snowman on his weather website he has a great article highlighting the rest of this year and for january of next year and it looks like the central us will be colder and for the eastcoast it will be balmy and warmer so that means that the battleground zone is the lower greatlakes and ohio valley for big snowstorms in our areaand he also has stated we will have a la nina like pattern with the epo going negative too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Would love this pattern in Nebraska. Great information. Thanks for the find Tim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Would love this pattern in Nebraska. Great information. Thanks for the find Tim.welcome centralnebweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 the way i found out by the snowman on his weather website he has a great article highlighting the rest of this year and for january of next year and it looks like the central us will be colder and for the eastcoast it will be balmy and warmer so that means that the battleground zone is the lower greatlakes and ohio valley for big snowstorms in our areaand he also has stated we will have a la nina like pattern with the epo going negative too.Sounds right. Checkout the 00z Euro Ensembles Northern Hemispheric 500mb patter. Â Big time ridge along the east coast, trough centered in the central CONUS, massive arctic ridge and a small glimpse of a trough near Hawaii where storm systems will like to cut underneath the NW NAMER ridge causing the Split Flow pattern. Â This should be an interesting pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 If this storm materializes, it will be racing ene'ward and will be in and out in a flash.This. Fast fast fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Here's the promised write-up on the storm. I backed off an eastward track in the face of the 12z model consensus, though I'd still be wary of such a track given model biases & the Typhoon Rule. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/january-3-5-potential-winter-storm.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Good post Snowman. As you stated too many uncertainties with this storm, as with the last. I have a bad feeling that the artic air will press further and faster south pushing the storm with it. Only thing I think could keep this from heading too far south and east would be a negative tilt trough. Again the devil is in the finer details which won't be ironed out for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Nice crappy bullseye of no snow right over my area on that map above. Starting to feel like Nebraska over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Took a look at the 12z Euro Ensembles and Control.  Both models are seeing a lakes cutter for the Jan 3rd system.  In fact, I'd say about 70% of the Euro Ensembles are showing some sort of Plains/Midwest/Lakes system. For those snow weenies, check out what the 12z Euro Control is painting over the next 2 weeks!  Hopefully someone gets buried from the pattern that is setting up.  Potentially a very active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes.  BTW, I also checked out the latest Euro Weeklies and the Central CONUS was favoring cold/storminess through the whole month of January.  Barely any east coast systems on that run.  Get ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Still a few days away but the 18z NAM is showing a favorable lake effect set up for WI/IL next Tuesday when the arctic front passes on through. Â Wind profile's look to be out of the NNE and down the length of the lake. Â Again, still a long ways away but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Took a look at the 12z Euro Ensembles and Control.  Both models are seeing a lakes cutter for the Jan 3rd system.  In fact, I'd say about 70% of the Euro Ensembles are showing some sort of Plains/Midwest/Lakes system. For those snow weenies, check out what the 12z Euro Control is painting over the next 2 weeks!  Hopefully someone gets buried from the pattern that is setting up.  Potentially a very active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes.  BTW, I also checked out the latest Euro Weeklies and the Central CONUS was favoring cold/storminess through the whole month of January.  Barely any east coast systems on that run.  Get ready.looks like geos is going to love this this is right in his area also looks like over a foot in these areas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 looks like geos is going to love this this is right in his area.Would be a nice treat to start off 2015 under a deep snow pack... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 the area from north of stl to the southren suburbs of chicago needs to pat attention with the weather forecasts.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122618/gfsp_asnow_us_41.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 It's amazing that every single model not only has the storm, but the track seems almost identical. Too bad we're still a week plus out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 it looks like niko could get in on the action too.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.pngI hope so Tim. 1 Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Today was absolutely amazing for December standards. It was very mild with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Deep blue skies and a few fair weather high clouds. I swear, it felt like it was Spring. People were washing their cars, jogging, walking, even one or two barbeques were spotted. I even saw bees flying around, if you can believe that. Just incredible! I must admit, it felt nice being outside, but on the other side of me, I was disappointed for having such an unseasonably mild day for this time of the year. Unlike last year this time, there was a deep snowpack and frigid temps. What a difference a year can make. Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I hope one of these model runs/ensemble runs that spread the wealth can get it right as we all of have seen these multiple times this winter before and we are all still way below average. Unfortunately, it always seems these maps by the models are for storms in the 1-2 week period and of course we all know what have happened to those storms when the time comes around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's amazing that every single model not only has the storm, but the track seems almost identical. Too bad we're still a week plus out...Can't be any worse than the last storm system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 with the storm right around the 3rd of next month we should wait for the next few days until we look at more model runs then make a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Saw the wind profiles favorable for LES on the west side of the lake for Tuesday. That looks to be the only shot at measurable snow this month, so hopefully that can work out. I'm afraid though a lot of areas will conclude December on a snowless note. Something I don't remember seeing in the last 20 years.  Storm next weekend end looks great. Can't get too excited 7-8 days out yet though. I will say I've probably seen more snowstorms during the first week of January then I have at other times in the winter. High of 49° today with a lot of sun made it feel like a March day actually. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Saw the wind profiles favorable for LES on the west side of the lake for Tuesday. That looks to be the only shot at measurable snow this month, so hopefully that can work out. I'm afraid though a lot of areas will conclude December on a snowless note. Something I don't remember seeing in the last 20 years.  Storm next weekend end looks great. Can't get too excited 7-8 days out yet though. I will say I've probably seen more snowstorms during the first week of January then I have at other times in the winter. High of 49° today with a lot of sun made it feel like a March day actually.Seems like the GFS is trying to get better phasing of this system a little earlier each day.  Looking better organized on tonights 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Look like a similar track to the Nov system. Leaves the central plains high and dry. Even Lezak is admittedly down on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm liking that the GFS is a bit more NW and more phased. Still amused at the donut hole in my area and for you Nebraska folks. Over a week away yet so we got a lot of time to track this thing. No one wants to be in the bullseye right now. Realistically, being NW of this right now may be the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like this December in Chicago will end with only a trace of snow, that has to be pretty rare... How many other Decembers featured only a trace of snow for the entire month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I sat outside around a fire today with a t-shirt and shorts. And then it started raining. Something is wrong with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Wow what a blah of crap. Winter can move on if it's going to keep this pattern up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 GFS has the 3rd-4th storm more NW now. Mid to long range is very active and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like this December in Chicago will end with only a trace of snow, that has to be pretty rare... How many other Decembers featured only a trace of snow for the entire month? I don't know if there has been any in recent history. I sure can't think of any. Only chance of snow this month is Tuesday when the winds shift the winds out of the NE for a short period. Other than that, November looks like it was/will be snowier than this month. I sat outside around a fire today with a t-shirt and shorts. And then it started raining. Something is wrong with this. I didn't put on shorts yesterday, but I was outside with just a sweatshirt on. Wouldn't have done that this year at this time! Very windy and blustery outside now. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Regular GFS has the storm and it is a very solid event for most of us, with another event on the 5th. However, the parallel GFS has the storm suppressed and keeps our area dry throughout the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 1912 the last time chicago did not record any snow in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I don't know if there has been any in recent history. I sure can't think of any. Only chance of snow this month is Tuesday when the winds shift the winds out of the NE for a short period. Other than that, November looks like it was/will be snowier than this month.  I didn't put on shorts yesterday, but I was outside with just a sweatshirt on. Wouldn't have done that this year at this time! Very windy and blustery outside now.What are the Delta T's looking like on Tuesday???  Water temps are in the low/mid 40's and with temps in the low/mid 20's this should generate some intense instability.  Would be nice to see a heavy lake effect band for a few hours before winds turn more NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 1912 the last time chicago did not record any snow in DecemberThank you Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 So let the battle begins for the Jan 3rd storm...GFS/GGEM vs Euro.  Euro is the slowest model to kick that energy out of the 4 corners region which results in no storm forming.  Certainly seems like it is the model bias holding the energy back for to long. I think all models are agreeing on some major cold after this system.  We may have a baroclinic zone set up after this system and pieces of energy coming out of the Rockies could produce some snows in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Models have a tough time trying to figure this out this far in advance but something to look forward to.  GFS is showing it for right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 So let the battle begins for the Jan 3rd storm...GFS/GGEM vs Euro. Euro is the slowest model to kick that energy out of the 4 corners region which results in no storm forming. Certainly seems like it is the model bias holding the energy back for to long. I think all models are agreeing on some major cold after this system. We may have a baroclinic zone set up after this system and pieces of energy coming out of the Rockies could produce some snows in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes. Models have a tough time trying to figure this out this far in advance but something to look forward to. GFS is showing it for right now. we need the king euro onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Yeah I don't feel good about it unless the Euro is on board. Seems like one of those years where the Euro has gotten everything right or close at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 we need the king euro onboard.I think it will come back.  If you take a look at the 00z 26th run, it had the energy come out quicker and farther north which resulted in a major snow storm.  Now, for today's 12z run the energy is no where near as far north  which screws up the whole pattern.  Euro has a bias of holding energy back to long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Back on Nov 23rd/24th we had a positive AO/NAO/EPO and a similar -PNA.  This time around the AO/NAO will be near neutral and with a -PNA a SE Ridge present.  The EPO will also be in the tank so a much different opportunity for this storm to materialize into a widespread snowfall.  1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Taking a gander at the new CPC outlook over the next 2 weeks and there are signals for a snowy/cold central CONUS. Â Notice widespread chances of above normal precip covering the central CONUS and temps more than likely averaging very cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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