snow_wizard Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yes... and its very reliable as been established. When it flips around between 3 possible scenarios (cold, warm, and normal) its definitely worth discussing to keep your psyche soothed. It is VERY meaningful when it shows cold. Obviously I'm not going to base any kind of forecast off of the CFS. I was just making the point that more runs than not have shown varying degrees of cold in early to mid January. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Per Scott Sistek, Newberg, OR just gusted to 69 mph and 40,000 PGE customers out of power in Washington County. https://twitter.com/ScottSKOMO/status/543189177345404928 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Obviously I'm not going to base any kind of forecast off of the CFS. I was just making the point that more runs than not have shown varying degrees of cold in early to mid January. I appreciate your optimistic outlook. I will start to worry if we don't see any cold and snow by the end of January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Who cares?? Its not worth discussing. Any of it. Just pushing some agenda with empty data, Might happen... might not. But the CFS just flails around endlessly so stop pinpointing when it flails in your direction. You sound a bit snappy. I assume your power goes out quite a bit during wind storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 You sound a bit snappy. I assume your power goes out quite a bit during wind storms. Almost never since 2006. And the trajectory is not right for strong winds out here anyways. Been working long hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Down here at my office on the Willamette River the wind is roaring. When I was in Keizer it was pretty tame, maybe 15-20mph. That 69 at "Newberg" was probably in the Chehelem Hills. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 I see a lot of people carrying on with their everyday lives. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 WHOA...Clark County just jumped to 16,000 without power 45,000 in Portland Yes the 69 mph was at that sensor Andrew. 37 mph is all so far here in BG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 I will say this is a better wind event then the one in October. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 I see a lot of people carrying on with their everyday lives.Wow. Strange. Had a huge gust about 10 minutes ago. Lights have flickered a few times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Who cares?? Its not worth discussing. Any of it. Just pushing some agenda with empty data, Might happen... might not. But the CFS just flails around endlessly so stop pinpointing when it flails in your direction. Sometimes flailing is better than nothing. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 71 mph near Newberg now...in the hills http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=AU458&table=1&banner=off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Sometimes flailing is better than nothing. No. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rustysprocket Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Who cares?? Its not worth discussing. Any of it. Just pushing some agenda with empty data, Might happen... might not. But the CFS just flails around endlessly so stop pinpointing when it flails in your direction.This forum is "might happen, might not" most of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Power went out for 2 seconds. Restarted my router and internet connection. December 11, 2014, never forget. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Pipe down Tim. No need to take SnowWizard's comments that aren't directed in any way towards you, personal. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 I appreciate your optimistic outlook. I will start to worry if we don't see any cold and snow by the end of January. I'll be worried too, although it wouldn't be unheard of for a cold snap during a warm ENSO February ala 1995. The odds are this winter will be pretty much done by late Jan. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 This forum is "might happen, might not" most of the time. That's called weather forecasting. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Don't care. He's brash. He's tough. He's Tim. Asking the hard questions on weather forums since 2005. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 49.2 mph here in our little gully. My neighbor's Xmas display is a mess. Take that, Jesus!!! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Almost never since 2006. And the trajectory is not right for strong winds out here anyways. Been working long hours. I figured something must be up. You usually aren't this crabby. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 I see a lot of people carrying on with their everyday lives. Yep, I just saw someone out for a "normal" afternoon walk with a stroller, fighting with the wind. Meanwhile, my building seems to be swaying slightly and I'm getting nauseous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 48mph so far at PDX, 53mph at SLE, power appears to be out at the more impressive locales now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 I figured something must be up. You usually aren't this crabby. Low tolerance today. Tired. But hey... how about those crazy NWS employees and their massive balls?? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 What's up with Astoria getting so little wind. Kind of unusual. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Afternoon AFD sticking with gusts to 60 and mentions two possible bursts of wind. I'm still thinking this will be fairly significant and that SEA will break 50. MESO MODELS STILL SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ANDTIGHTEN GRADIENTS SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG WINDS INLAND AS WELL. HIGHWIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WRN WA TONIGHT. STRONGSLY WINDS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL WA COAST AROUND 4-5PM THEN SPREAD NWD. THE 4KM WRF-GFS SHOWS 40-45 KT SUSTAINED RIGHTALONG THE COAST SO WINDS SUSTAINED AT 40 WITH GUSTS 75 MPH STILLSEEM LIKELY.THE WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN BUTHIGH WIND GUSTS STILL SEEM LIKELY FOR A COUPLE REASONS. FIRSTOFF...LIGHTING OFFSHORE IS INDICATING A LOT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITYWHICH SHOULD HELP BRING SOME OF THE 55 KT WIND AT 925 MB DOWN ASSURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60-65 MPH. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING THISSTRONG OVER WRN OREGON NEAR THE COAST AND SOME WILLAMETTE VALLEYLOCATIONS LIKE EUGENE ARE GUSTING OVER 50 MPH LAST HOUR. THIS WILLBE TRANSLATING NWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SECONDLY...HIGH RESOLUTIONMODELS DEVELOP A STRONG MESO LOW TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPICS. THISINDUCES VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM ADMIRALTY INLET S THROUGHPUGET SOUND. THE ECMWF/WRFGFS/HRRR ALL SHOW THIS OCCURRING. THISCOULD GIVE A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF WIND TO PUGET SOUND/ADMIRALTY INLET.THE FIRST...A 2-3 HOUR BURST OF WINDS WITH THE INITIAL BENT BACKFEATURE AND PRESSURE RISES...AND A SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESOLOW LATER IN THE EVENING.ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS GRADUALLY EASING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ITWILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLEALOFT SO A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AREA.OVERALL IT WILL BE A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER DAY. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Yep, I just saw someone out for a "normal" afternoon walk with a stroller, fighting with the wind. Meanwhile, my building seems to be swaying slightly and I'm getting nauseous. Taking a baby out in wind like that is a bit crazy if you ask me. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 58 mph recorded in Vancouver (trained spotter) Here are some pics I pulled from FB of the wind damage so far. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm getting some of the most impressive gusts in years here at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'l What's up with Astoria getting so little wind. Kind of unusual.It's coming. Just too far south right now. Give it 2 to 3 more hours. All hell is going to break loose for some of us--particularly those of us West of the Sound and in the North Sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 58 mph recorded in Vancouver (trained spotter) Here are some pics I pulled from FB of the wind damage so far. Very impressive pics. Windows blown out of high rise even. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 58 mph recorded in Vancouver (trained spotter) Here are some pics I pulled from FB of the wind damage so far. Those are some crazy pictures! It just goes to show you what might happen if an even bigger Sou'Wester hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'l It's coming. Just too far south right now. Give it 2 to 3 more hours. All hell is going to break loose for some of us--particularly those of us West of the Sound and in the North Sound. Maybe, but bear in mind all models shows the low rapidly weakening as it moves up the coast. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Those are non-event windows in that high rise, by the way. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 52 mph at my place. Strongest in the 4 years I've lived here! Haven't heard the wind roar like this before out here in BG. The glass doors blew in at my work (Safeway) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 PDX gusted to 59. Yawn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 62mph at PDX now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 PDX gusted to 59. Yawn. Oops, actually 62. Edit:someone beat me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 62mph at PDX now.Sexy. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 62mph at PDX now. Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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