MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 18z might smoke our brains. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 18z might smoke our brains.What are you basing this on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Todays update. Things look shifted west a bit. Compared to yesterday FrssQTL.gifAnd this is with human input forecasters. This chart is even better than the computerized output over the weekend. Very nice. Thanks for posting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 The initial trough digging into the West on Christmas day is a bit further west on the 18z. SE ridge is also a bit further west and stronger. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 18z GFS HR 84 Ophttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 HR 84 Parallelhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 At hour 111, ridge is definitely tilted more, which should allow better cold air penetration into the PNW. Looking kinda similar to last night's GEM. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 18z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface AnalysisKamchatka low forecast to curve northward towards Western Bering Sea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 HR 120http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 At hour 150, ridge is definitely still more tilted and amplified than last couple GFS runs, but looks like cold air will miss just east again. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 At hour 150, ridge is definitely still more tilted and amplified than last couple GFS runs, but looks like cold air will miss just east again. 18zhour150.pngYeah, but closer to being pretty cold, and improvements over 12z noted too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah, but closer to being pretty cold, and improvements over 12z noted too. Agreed. It's not as strong with the Sat/Sun trough for you guys, which would mean heigher heights, drier and not quite as cold, less chance of CZ snow. But those are just the small details...the overall pattern development is definitely a step in right direction. Though I still would really like to see that Aleutian low complex further west. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 HR 162 Parallel .... Hmmmm close to seeing retrogression, or may in fact be some here http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Pray for snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Pray for snow. Ask Santa for it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 HR 180 Parallel, hmmm, not bad http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_31.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Now this is quite nice! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500a_namer_31.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just slide if 5 degrees west.... c'mon please...... it's Christmas ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Now this is quite nice! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500a_namer_31.png Coast to coast coldish! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just slide if 5 degrees west.... c'mon please...... it's Christmas ! Looks like another infamous "backdoor" blast. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just slide if 5 degrees west.... c'mon please...... it's Christmas ! Maybe that'll be the 00z's Christmas present for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Now this is quite nice! That might be a step in the right direciton, but if that verifies we are likely to get screwed in the snow department and be stuck with a non memorable event. The back door scenarios just don't seem to be very fun (especially for those of us in WA/BC). Really hope the block can establish itself a little farther west for a change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 18z Op is really quite goodsurface temps HR 156 - 300 ...Turns chilly, then cold, then warms a tad, than turns real cold with major reload http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_27.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_31.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_35.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_39.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T2m_nwus_42.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.Agreed. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 For PDX it looks like this would be more of a low-level driven blast 925mb - surface as 850s don't turn real cold west of The Dalles... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Boys... you gotta lighten up. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.Sure.Merry Christmas and God Bless you.Go Blazers! Portland at Houston tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hour 384 is a thing of beauty. LOL Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Boys... you gotta lighten up. It's always been the standard, dog. Whether you're joking or not (we all know you actually love Christmas), if it's religion or politics, it's off-limits here and pretty much any moderated forum that doesn't have to do with one of those two things. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.True. Lame jokes about Jesus could create a huge problem, but at least we aren't arguing the the dangers of a marine push. That is the kind of thing that creates real problems on this site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's always been the standard, dog. Whether you're joking or not (we all know you actually love Christmas), if it's religion or politics, it's off-limits here and pretty much any moderated forum that doesn't have to do with one of those two things.You are correct of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 For PDX it looks like this would be more of a low-level driven blast 925mb - surface as 850s don't turn real cold west of The Dalles...I agree, and furthermore it would be a significant back door arctic blast via Gorge. Real nice run, but let's see if there is Ensemble support and then if 00z runs continue this idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I agree, and furthermore it would be a significant back door arctic blast via Gorge. Real nice run, but let's see if there is Ensemble support and then if 00z runs continue this idea. You realize you just replied in agreement to yourself. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's always been the standard, dog. Whether you're joking or not (we all know you actually love Christmas), if it's religion or politics, it's off-limits here and pretty much any moderated forum that doesn't have to do with one of those two things.Bucking for a renewed global status, eh? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hour 384 is a thing of beauty. LOL Snow will approve. SCORE! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks cold in extreme northeastern WA! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hour 384 is a thing of beauty. LOL1064mb MEGA high over Yukon/northern BC. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_T850_namer_49.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500_vort_namer_49.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500a_namer_49.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122218/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_49.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Score! Look at the low off of Newport with all that moisture and all that cold air coming down from the north with the 1060mb H in Yukon! Score! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 You realize you just replied in agreement to yourself.Yep, and actually I was going to continue it multi-quoting myself? Why? Because Arctic Blast. That's why. Oh... Gorton's Fisherman might chime in soon... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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