February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

So now we're going to where the Alaskan block was key, so the ridge merging with the NAO block now the only way to get cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

Depending on how quickly the ridge and NAO block merger this could actually lead to a major backdoor blast. Hmmm... What do you think?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Depending on how quickly the ridge and NAO block merger this could actually lead to a major backdoor blast. Hmmm... What do you think?

Skeptical.

[Gradient Keeper]

Weird progression to get cold, but still giving us hope.

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Depending on how quickly the ridge and NAO block merger this could actually lead to a major backdoor blast. Hmmm... What do you think?

I think it's time to look forward to spring

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 850s. Merger with NAO block is paying off

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1060 high on the bc coast just waiting for a reason to come visit.  JESUS..

[Gradient Keeper]

So wait. Now we no longer need a strong, amplified gulf of Alaska ridge of block Lol. Okay then.

[MossMan]

We should all listen to Matt more. 

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

So wait. Now we no longer need a strong, amplified gulf of Alaska ridge of block Lol. Okay then.

PUMP up that ridge

Pump
Pump, Pump it up

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This could be the top carrot chasing winter i can ever remember. THANKS TIM!

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Depending on how quickly the ridge and NAO block merger this could actually lead to a major backdoor blast. Hmmm... What do you think?

Those first 30hrs with the Yukon TPV are so f**king crucial. It can’t be understated.

Need to bleed as much of that sucker as possible..stronger Yukon TPV = warmer solution.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Oh well we still have fast cars, naked women and beer!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Phil said:

Those first 30hrs with the Yukon TPV are so f**king crucial. It can’t be understated.

Need to bleed as much of that sucker as possible..stronger Yukon TPV = warmer solution.

What is your prediction for the euro? Did it have the solution last night or is gfs correct?

[Gradient Keeper]

Well this for me is a big learning experience. Why? That NAO block that retrogresses from Greenland. All we've ever thought was how we need a strong gulf of Alaska ridge/block to pull down cold air from Yukon, BC, AB. I can't recall this merger with NAO block being what leads us to cold. When did that last happen? Very rare and a lot to study there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sorry Guys. I know this hurts. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sorry Guys. I know this hurts. 

We weren’t expected to get anything down here anyway so no biggie. Cold temps don’t happen much if ever here anymore.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is your prediction for the euro? Did it have the solution last night or is gfs correct?

I have no idea, brother. This is almost pure chaos arising from micro scale features during the squeeze of the TPV. No way to predict that..your guess is as good as mine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We weren’t expected to get anything down here anyway so no biggie. Cold temps don’t happen much if ever here anymore.

You could pull off some 55/31 type days next week if this doesn’t trend any warmer. PDX could see sub 50 highs. 

[Jbolin]

I think it's time to get the "Hitler" video ready, 

Ja?

[MossMan]

 Currently 39 degrees and moderate rain.

.20” on the day, 3.83” for the month, 11.55”YTD. Horrible trends with the morning models, so disappointing. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Time to face the fact that many of us will never see a prolific blast again in our lifetimes.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We weren’t expected to get anything down here anyway so no biggie. Cold temps don’t happen much if ever here anymore.

And yet the 12Z GFS shows you having the best chance one week from today...

 

[Three-Six-Zero]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet the 12Z GFS shows you having the best chance one week from today...

 

That doesn’t look like 55/31 to me

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet the 12Z GFS shows you having the best chance one week from today...

 

Just not going to happen. 

[bainbridgekid]

Wow. I really should have slept in . . .

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

So much for making it to Sunday 12z or 00z runs to lock it in. Couldn't even make it to this morning without sh*t trends on the models.

I'm close to getting burnt out. Way too whiplash over the past week or two. 

Now it appears it's all about the ridge merging with massive NAO block. The initial Alaskan ridge trending to be weaker isn't much of a player now. Strange progression to get cold.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Time to face the fact that many of us will never see a prolific blast again in our lifetimes.

Wasn't it like -10 in Eugene in 2014?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just not going to happen. 

Lord Canada is speaking snow and it says you might be wrong! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cmc holding on?

[MossMan]

Some forum members went to bed last night in snowy cold bliss and are just being slapped awake by the warm harsh reality of model riding. Good think I checked when letting the dogs outside at 4:30am, it softened the blow a little. Had a feeling since there were only 30 posts between when I went to bed at 11 and when I got up at 4:30. This is kind of like that one year all over again when the models where showing a January 1950 redux but then changed just a couple days out. I did have a 3hr overriding event from that “1950 redux” so that was nice. Think I got about 3” before melting as fast as it came. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Lord Canada is speaking snow and it says you might be wrong! 

GEM is cold still. Though a significant step back from the 00z so far. We better pray the ICON and GEM are on the right track. 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Some forum members went to bed last night in snowy cold bliss and are just being slapped awake by the warm harsh reality of model riding. Good think I checked when letting the dogs outside at 4:30am, it softened the blow a little. Had a feeling since there were only 30 posts between when I went to bed at 11 and when I got up at 4:30. This is kind of like that one year all over again when the models where showing a January 1950 redux but then changed just a couple days out. I did have a 3hr overriding event from that “1950 redux” so that was nice. Think I got about 3” before melting as fast as it came. 

You climbed up into the attic and moved that D**n kiddie pool, DIDN'T YOU?

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Some forum members went to bed last night in snowy cold bliss and are just being slapped awake by the warm harsh reality of model riding. Good think I checked when letting the dogs outside at 4:30am, it softened the blow a little. Had a feeling since there were only 30 posts between when I went to bed at 11 and when I got up at 4:30. This is kind of like that one year all over again when the models where showing a January 1950 redux but then changed just a couple days out. I did have a 3hr overriding event from that “1950 redux” so that was nice. Think I got about 3” before melting as fast as it came. 

You do realize this is all yours and Robs fault, right?

Stop talking to your wife and he needs to get rid of his cat.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Day 5 850s

[bainbridgekid]

Canadian still brings 492 thicknesses into NE Washington.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lovely. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow! GEM Day 6 850s

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, JBolin said:

You climbed up into the attic and moved that D**n kiddie pool, DIDN'T YOU?

Yes.