February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

Oh Tim... It’s in between the 0z and 6z. It’s also improved days 6-9.

I don't ever compare to the 06Z or 18Z runs... its east of the 00Z run at that time.    And of course we are also focusing initially on what happens earlier in this coming week before we can make any serious guesses on the 7-10 day period.

[Requiem]

I woke up and expected the models to be absolutely horrible— pleasantly surprised that they look cold and dry. Maybe not as bullish but still looks like fun.

[Cloud]

The Tim maps are back! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The Tim maps are back! 

I just posted the entire loop of the 12Z GEFS for the next week.   You don't want to see that information?    Tim map!      

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS loop through day 10...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just posted the entire loop of the 12Z GEFS for the next week.   You don't want to see that information?    Tim map!      

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO will be key. If it is cold like GEM and ICON then we will understand Tim hacked the GFS.

[MossMan]

I could tell this deer is also pissed that the models took a dump... As I looked out my kitchen window. Oh and the Canadian Geese were heading over my house earlier going north...Honking (laughing) at me. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF will be the coldest run yet... seems like the best thing to bet on is model chaos right now!  

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO will be key. If it is cold like GEM and ICON then we will understand Tim hacked the GFS.

What will almost certainly happen is it will pull back slightly from the 00Z, but not an overwhelming amount, and we won't know what to think.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC odds:

Worse: -500 ML

Better: +480 ML

[FroYoBro]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC odds:

Worse: -500 ML

Better: +480 ML

I don't know what this means because I'm not a degenerate. 

[seattleweatherguy]

WWUS76 KSEW 061557 NPWSEW URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 757 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 WAZ509-555-556-558-559-070000- Tacoma Area-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity- Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity- Including the cities of Tacoma, Covington-Sawyer-w, Maple Valley, Monroe, Prairie Ridge, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, Woodinville, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake, Seattle, Bremerton, and Silverdale 757 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest wind 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * WHERE...Tacoma Area, Bellevue and Vicinity, East Puget Sound Lowlands, Seattle and Vicinity and Bremerton and Vicinity. * WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && WAZ509-555-556-558-559-062000- Tacoma Area-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity- Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity- Including the cities of Tacoma, Covington-Sawyer-w, Maple Valley, Monroe, Prairie Ridge, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, Woodinville, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake, Seattle, Bremerton, and Silverdale 359 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected. * WHERE...Tacoma Area, East Puget Sound Lowlands, Bellevue and Vicinity, Seattle and Vicinity and Bremerton and Vicinity. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. &&

[seattleweatherguy]

A small windstorm today it seems. 

[Phil]

Dr. Euro is running. This is for all the marbles.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. Euro is running. This is for all the marbles.

Until the 00Z run... that is for all the marbles!  

Which is only until the 12Z run tomorrow which is for all the marbles!   

Which is only until... 

[snow_wizard]

To call the recent model performance atrocious would be an understatement.  At least we're to the point where even the "bad" runs are cold.  We still don't know whether we will be talking about just fairly cold or REALLY cold, and the question of snow is completely up in the air.

The 12z GEM was epic cold while the 12z GFS was sustained moderate cold.  We shall see!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Until the 00Z run... that is for all the marbles!  

Which is only until the 12Z run tomorrow which is for the all the marbles!   

Which is only until... 

The suspense is killing me!

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

WWUS76 KSEW 061557 NPWSEW URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 757 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 WAZ509-555-556-558-559-070000- Tacoma Area-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity- Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity- Including the cities of Tacoma, Covington-Sawyer-w, Maple Valley, Monroe, Prairie Ridge, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, Woodinville, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake, Seattle, Bremerton, and Silverdale 757 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest wind 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * WHERE...Tacoma Area, Bellevue and Vicinity, East Puget Sound Lowlands, Seattle and Vicinity and Bremerton and Vicinity. * WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && WAZ509-555-556-558-559-062000- Tacoma Area-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity- Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity- Including the cities of Tacoma, Covington-Sawyer-w, Maple Valley, Monroe, Prairie Ridge, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, Woodinville, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake, Seattle, Bremerton, and Silverdale 359 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected. * WHERE...Tacoma Area, East Puget Sound Lowlands, Bellevue and Vicinity, Seattle and Vicinity and Bremerton and Vicinity. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. &&

Wind advisory for 40mph gusts? Really don’t understand the logic behind that.

Also, I thought criteria for wind was standardized? 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z ECMWF Day 1

It's over

[RentonHill]

Can’t watch 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

12z WRF 10 AM Thursday. Good lord Have you EVER seen the gradient packed like that before? I haven't. Dangerous and damaging east winds.

[seattleweatherguy]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wind advisory for 40mph gusts? Really don’t understand the logic behind that.

Also, I thought criteria for wind was standardized? 

Phil its the nws seattle thinking possible winds to 45 mph which might be borderline criteria i guess 

[Jbolin]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

12z WRF 10 AM Thursday. Good lord Have you EVER seen the gradient packed like that before? I haven't. Dangerous and damaging east winds.

What's the cross gradient Rob?

That's gotta be on the order of +15mb or higher, Crown Point anyone?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z WRF 10 AM Thursday. Good lord Have you EVER seen the gradient packed like that before? I haven't. Dangerous and damaging east winds.

Something like that would cause the offshore winds to overcome the topography and almost certainly knock my power out. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

How do you even count the isobars? This would be horrible widespread damage.

 

[The Swamp]

1 minute ago, JBolin said:

What's the cross gradient Rob?

That's gotta be on the order of +15mb or higher, Crown Point anyone?

The winds could be the big story out of all of this.  Easterlies shooting the gaps are very damaging.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z WRF 10 AM Thursday. Good lord Have you EVER seen the gradient packed like that before? I haven't. Dangerous and damaging east winds.

Would be something. Decent bet the gorge gets windy this week.

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z WRF 10 AM Thursday. Good lord Have you EVER seen the gradient packed like that before? I haven't. Dangerous and damaging east winds.

I’ll have to visit my folks in the Claw! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

How do you even count the isobars? This would be horrible widespread damage.

 

Let’s see... assuming each isobar is 1 mb, the 1028 just off the coast corresponds to 1030 at PDX. That 1049 high in the Columbia Basin corresponds to 1045 in Tri-Cities and 1042-1043 in The Dalles.

[The Swamp]

Just now, iFred said:

It’s almost like warming trends depicted in a model attract some people here like ants to sugar.

It's not warning trends man.  It's ******* reality.  The way the models show the cold building in and dropping down over Montana and then spreading WEST are insane.  RARELY does a pattern like that verify.  What gets us cold is a nice Omega block out in the Pacific shooting north and a SE ridge to steer things over the west coast.  We don't have that.  The driver is the Greenland Block.  Just watch it on the loops.  Reality is what reality is.

No amount of Jim sky screaming and telling everyone something historic is coming makes it any more likely to happen.  Oh, and my daffodils don't want cold and snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3

Looks better than the GFS to my untrained eye.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Let’s see... assuming each isobar is 1 mb, the 1028 just off the coast corresponds to 1030 at PDX. That 1049 high in the Columbia Basin corresponds to 1045 in Tri-Cities and 1042-1043 in The Dalles.

No, I know that Lol. It's just amazing the gradient packing. Almost a solid black mass.

[Requiem]

At the very least at this point back door cold looks likely 

[umadbro]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z WRF 10 AM Thursday. Good lord Have you EVER seen the gradient packed like that before? I haven't. Dangerous and damaging east winds.

That's looks fake. I know it isn't. But yeesh

[snow_wizard]

I really like the ECMWF at day 3.  Better than the GFS, but not as apt to break out over the ocean as fast as the 0z run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 Model trends. ECMWF, GEM, GFS