February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

How do you even count the isobars? This would be horrible widespread damage.

 

If you look close you can see Tim holding onto a tree for dear life.

[snow_wizard]

I still don't get the negativity on here from some people.  A very good outcome is still highly possible.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If you look close you can see Tim holding onto a tree for dear life.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I still don't get the negativity on here from some people.  A very good outcome is still highly possible.

Well the GFS was a disaster. GEM and ICON were great though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3 Model trends. ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Euro has even less vortex stuck in YT/AK than the GEM. Seems like GFS is the big outlier in that respect. C’MON EURO!

[Requiem]

By many accounts one of the most powerful and persistent east wind events was that of early February 1996— I’ve always wondered what the setup for the was. I believe it was a backdoor blast.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I still don't get the negativity on here from some people.  A very good outcome is still highly possible.

Don't worry about how others feel.

[Phil]

Euro is a small step back from 06z, but not substantially so. More TPV straggling behind up in NW Canada.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks promising with ridge about to merge with NAO block and bitter air mass in a perfect location to possibly be pulled back over us.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I still don't get the negativity on here from some people.  A very good outcome is still highly possible.

Dude... some people are fatalists and some people on eternal optimists.     This is human nature.   You are always surprised by this... but people have different personalities and that is never going to change.    You can't change it by cheerleading.   We have been burned way too many times in the past.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF is much colder than the GFS at day 4.  Good compromise between the GFS and last nights 0z ECMWF run.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro is solid and at this point is in the deadly accurate zone. It's moved a bit but nothing like the P.O.S GFS.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Looks promising with ridge about to merge with NAO block and bitter air mass in a perfect location to possibly be pulled back over us.

I'm very pleased with day 4.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude... some people are fatalists and some people on eternal optimists.     This is human nature.   You are always surprised by this... but people have different personalities and that is never going to change.    You can't change it. 

What's funny is we all know more about weather than 99% of the human on earth and have watched these patterns unfold many many times yet we still allow ourselves to loose our sh.t over 1 bad run lol. We're a bunch of f.ckin nuts!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What's funny is we all knore more about weather than 99% of the human on earth and have watched these patterns unfold many many times yet we still allow ourselves to loose our sh.t over 1 bad run lol. We're a bunch of f.ckin nuts!

Human nature and emotion... its not just with weather.   Its universal.

[TT-SEA]

Some arctic front snow on Wednesday...

[Perturbed Member]

Looking like the GFS may be the warm outlier here. The poor model consistency is a bit annoying but things are still looking pretty good. It also looks like the Columbia basin will be getting cold even if the upper level evolution is a bit suboptimal.

I think the odds of very cold offshore flow at PDX are looking good. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Ohhh!

 

[TT-SEA]

Cold air coming down from the north by Wednesday evening...  Tim maps!! 

 

[snow_wizard]

Brrrrr!

I love this run so far.  Straight northerly gradients will bring the Fraser outflow air right down the Sound to Seattle.  Always better to get the cold from the north for SEA.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 Ohhh!

 

Photo shopped!

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What's funny is we all know more about weather than 99% of the human on earth and have watched these patterns unfold many many times yet we still allow ourselves to loose our sh.t over 1 bad run lol. We're a bunch of f.ckin nuts!

Word!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 850s

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Looking like the GFS may be the warm outlier here. The poor model consistency is a bit annoying but things are still looking pretty good. It also looks like the Columbia basin will be getting cold even if the upper level evolution is a bit suboptimal.

I think the odds of very cold offshore flow at PDX are looking good. 

If that's a "warm" outlier we are doing fine!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Cold air coming down from the north by Wednesday evening...  Tim maps!! 

 

And if history repeats than these are a few degrees to warm probable.

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 Ohhh!

 

Again with the "face".

[TT-SEA]

Total snowfall from the arctic front... Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If you want to see what we're dealing with pick hr 120 on the euro then scroll back 4 runs lol. Wow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mid-40s south of the Columbia on Wednesday. Any cold air keeps getting pushed back. 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, ..... said:

It's not warning trends man.  It's ******* reality.  The way the models show the cold building in and dropping down over Montana and then spreading WEST are insane.  RARELY does a pattern like that verify.  What gets us cold is a nice Omega block out in the Pacific shooting north and a SE ridge to steer things over the west coast.  We don't have that.  The driver is the Greenland Block.  Just watch it on the loops.  Reality is what reality is.

No amount of Jim sky screaming and telling everyone something historic is coming makes it any more likely to happen.  Oh, and my daffodils don't want cold and snow.

Wrong. That’s just one of several potential conduits for arctic air out there. 1968/69, 1942/43, 1978/79, 2013/14, etc, did not follow that “classical” progression. Could probably list several others as well. Heck, Nov 2014 was a legit +PNA/+WPO and was a top-5 Nov airmass for the 21st century.

In fact, -PNA by itself rarely does the job (late last month was possibly the deepest -PNA cycle in a half decade, and it didn’t do squat). Need additional help either upstream or downstream..former is easier but the latter can work too. Just need to time it properly with the vacillation cycle in TPV/breaking anticyclones.

This progression is particularly bizarre, but has worked in the past. Very close to 1969. 

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW talk about a blast! In 4 hours PDX-DLS goes from flat to -8 to -10mb!

[TT-SEA]

And here comes the overrunning moisture immediately on Thursday...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temps in the mid-30s at PDX by Thursday morning. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Models need to make their minds up already. One thing I can say is the gfs has been the most inconsistent recently. Euro had been inconsistent up until the last few runs. The euro model seems to be locking in on a more consistent solution much better...and that’s a good thing as it’s a more reliable model overall and has been showing some pretty cold runs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And here comes the overrunning moisture immediately on Thursday...

 

If that moves straight W to E like on the ICON or GEM then it will pull cold air over the region. If it moves SW to NE then most areas warm quickly. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 Snow and raging wind!

 

[TT-SEA]

And Oregon gets the snow on Thursday... after WA on Wednesday.

 

[bainbridgekid]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 Ohhh!

 

Really unusual to see cold air blast into our area like that with hardly any positive height anomolies due West of us. Crazy things can happen though when the TPV is that close.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6