February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[BLI snowman]

Not digging nearly as favorably this go around. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[wxmet]

The TPV is much further east on this run.

[BLI snowman]

Legit bad run!

Unfortunately the 06z ICON was also a big step back and looks very similar.

[Christensen87]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m headed to bed. No reason to stay up any longer.

[snow drift]

Boy, that really jumped east.

[snow drift]

Model riding isn't for the faint of heart.

[MossMan]

Oof...That was a downer. I’m going back to bed. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Win some ya lose some. 

[The Swamp]

If Western Washington gets any winter out of this pattern it will be mostly north of Seattle.  When all is said and done it will be a glancing blow that heads east.  The AL is going to enable the westerlies to kick in much quicker than the models are showing.

Looking more and more like 40/30 type days with possible a 36/26 sprinkled in on Thursday.  Even the cold Wednesday and beyond keeps getting pushed back.

Don't forget the sun angles and Tim's daffodils.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS was fairly close to not dumping much cold air south. I do not like the trend along with the ICON. 12z runs hopefully will have different data ingested into the models and revert back to favorable digging of the arctic trough. If not, game over possibly.

[The Swamp]

36 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GFS was fairly close to not dumping much cold air south. I do not like the trend along with the ICON. 12z runs hopefully will have different data ingested into the models and revert back to favorable digging of the arctic trough. If not, game over possibly.

The models sure are fun to look at though.  No two are ever the same.  With the bad ones comes talk of rug pulls and winter is over.  With the good ones we hear terms like "historic" and "almost certain".  Enthusiasts who want the snow put on the blinders around here and forget about what is most likely to happen.  Then it's all Tim's fault.  

The AL has been very dominant this winter and a driver of sorts of the pattern out west.  I didn't expect it to be such a driver but here we are.  The westerlies are about to break through before a pattern reset.

[Phil]

06z GFS shows all the changes we *don’t* want to see right now..lower heights in Alaska, North Pacific, and NE-Canada.

Could be a transient waffle. GFS loves to do that.

 

[snow maniac]

So the question is, do I go and pick up the tractor from the shop or leave it?

[The Blob]

I hope it gets so cold and dumps so much snow that work gets canceled. Driving to and from work at night will not be fun.

[Timmy]

Any hope on the 06z euro?

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Any hope on the 06z euro?

Same shift as GFS, but as others have noted, these might be cycle-dependent. Would not surprise me in the least if 12z suite shifts back.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just pick 100 hrs out and scroll through 6 runs and watch the cycle. If the 12z follows the cycle it will be favorable again for us. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Here are the past 8 GFS runs at centered on Day 4(Tuesday 10 PM). You can see the trends I was discussing. Note the cut-off kona low has slowly progressed eastward not remaining cut-off, the ridge over Alaska weakening, Aleutian low reappearing, and arctic trough edging eastward. All bad trends. We need 12z and 00z runs today to bring back a stronger ridge and hold that cut-off low.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Facts are facts these f.ckers slide east 80% of the time. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Even with all the technology honestly past about 84 hrs there is not much accuracy. Runs are pretty tight till about that time frame then they really begin to stray.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just had an ice pellet shower here in Bellingham, currently 39 degrees with .39" in the rain bucket

[Gradient Keeper]

Here is some promise. 12z ICON Day 5.5 colder

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Here is some promise. 12z ICON Day 5.5 colder

ICON STATUS!

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That "winter battle zone" is exactly what dropped 4 feet of snow here just two years ago next week.   

I lost that battle after a couple hours of snow  . Air conditioner from east gave way to south winds and I was out of the ball game.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 PV too far up into Yukon

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't like what I see thus far....

[Blizzard777]

Wind advisory South Sound.  Didn’t see that coming

Gusting to 21 so far

 

[Jbolin]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

It's too bad this cold pool is too negatively tilted

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs) Very bad trend

[Gradient Keeper]

We seem real close to losing the GFS completely

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We're loosing this one it would appear. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 and this run is toast

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

But then again it really seems as though the gfs tries way to hard to keep cold air away from the west. I really don't trust it to much anymore. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Well that sure was fun... Onto the GEM and EURO

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hard to believe in just 12hrs we loose the gfs all together.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 I guess if the ridge can merge with the NAO block and hold back those cut-off lows... Maybe Day 5+ can turn colder. At least a glancing blow with some backdoor cold air.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 105 It's trying to do what I mentioned merging with NAO block to back the arctic air into eastern Washington.