February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Total snow from Thursday into Friday system...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is looking a lot colder north of PDX. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saw the GEM, time to winterize? Haven’t needed to yet this winter... GFS says not to worry about it. 

My faucet covers still on workbench....kind of like the doomsday clock being so close to midnight 

[TT-SEA]

This deserves a 'wow' from me... temps on Friday morning with lots of precip down to the south.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Snow, 20 F, 50-60mph east winds for PDX

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This deserves a 'wow' from me... temps on Friday morning with lots of precip down to the south.  

 

This is nice. Hopefully we can trend colder like the GEM.

[TT-SEA]

The moisture just keeps coming...

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The moisture just keeps coming...

With decent to strong outflow, let it. 

[Blizzard777]

55 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

A small windstorm today it seems. 

Hope our Cold & Snow can sneak up on us like this windstorm did.....HOPE

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This deserves a 'wow' from me... temps on Friday morning with lots of precip down to the south.  

 

Wow that shows about minus 20 at my cabin!

[TT-SEA]

Unbelievable for northern Oregon... these are HIGH temps on Friday.   And with lots of overrunning moisture coming.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Phil]

So, I’ll make a semi-prediction now, that the colder solutions will probably end up closer to reality than the warm ones.

Given the overall consistency with ECMWF depicting the colder solution (even after temporarily losing it), and the history with MJO orbits thru IPWP following SSW events in Niña years, plus antecedent -NAM and culminating cycle of poleward AAM transfer..climo favors a colder outcome across the West. Or at least the PNW. At least that’s my interpretation.

Sure, the “heart” of the airmass will probably miss slightly east, but that’s almost always the case anyway, even with the most prolific arctic blasts. Even the January 1950 airmass had the coldest air “centered” in Idaho/Montana. 

[TT-SEA]

Snowfall just on Friday night...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

day 7 looks snowy for western Wa

[wxmet]

GFS going through its normal inconsistencies. As long as we have the Euro we’re good. We’re in the range where the Euro locks in. Hard to imagine it changes drastically in subsequent runs.

[Jbolin]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Unbelievable for northern Oregon... these are HIGH temps on Friday.   And with lots of overrunning moisture coming.   

This is when the PDX metro and N. Willamette valley outdoes almost the entire westside, we've seen it time and again, when it's marginal almost everywhere west of the crest but the easterlies just support insane conditions and snow for them. 

[TT-SEA]

And its still in the 20s down there on Saturday morning.

 

[Omegaraptor]

This Euro is certifiably a holy shitt run

[Perturbed Member]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If that's a "warm" outlier we are doing fine!

Agreed, even the bad runs are pretty solid at the moment. A real shot at some fairly high tier events.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I might need to double wrap my hose bibs along with the insulated cover! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snowfall just on Friday night...

 

Warm nose is gonna get me Saturday morning. This looks a lot like February 2014 btw. 

[Deweydog]

FORECAST CONTEST?????

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF snowfall map through Saturday morning... this is an ECMWF snowfall map and not a GFS map! 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

GFS going through its normal inconsistencies. As long as we have the Euro we’re good. We’re in the range where the Euro locks in. Hard to imagine it changes drastically in subsequent runs.

Yup. Euros been more consistent the last few runs. Details will work out after we get the cold regarding snow...but the odds for the initial shot of cold air are increasing which is the most important thing. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Deweydog said:

FORECAST CONTEST?????

Clusterfuk

[TT-SEA]

Its STILL in the 20s on Saturday afternoon... 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF snowfall map through Saturday morning... this is an ECMWF snowfall map and not a GFS map! 

 

Almost the same Day as 2019 that got us. It's there turn!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF snowfall map through Saturday morning... this is an ECMWF snowfall map and not a GFS map! 

 

Everywhere that wasn’t hammered in Feb 2019 gets hammered by this. Nice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It blows my mind we are looking at maps like this 2 years later to the freaking day.

[snow_wizard]

Talk about a holy sheit run!  Wow!  Weaker low late next week so it stays further south.  Arlington drops to 7 for a low on Thursday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see the EURO trending more towards the ICON/GEM suite. Still some work to be done, but I think we get there. 

[TacomaWaWx]

ANDREW IS ON BOARD! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Talk about a holy sheit run!  Wow!  Weaker low late next week so it stays further south.  Arlington drops to 7 for a low on Thursday.

Hopefully it goes into N. CA and we have about a week of dry sunny weather! 

[Blizzard777]

25 minutes ago, Requiem said:

By many accounts one of the most powerful and persistent east wind events was that of early February 1996— I’ve always wondered what the setup for the was. I believe it was a backdoor blast.

Lost my notes but I believe I lost some shingles from that storm ( living in Troutdale at the time).  My anemometer measured winds just short of Hurricane force.  My house was shaking night and day! 

[Gradient Keeper]

For PDX it'll be colder than modeled due to widespread snow cover, strong east winds and major low level cold air advection. In fact, as the snow increases I wouldn't be surprised if we're closer to 12-14 F.

[snow_wizard]

SEA is at 29 degrees Saturday afternoon with heavy snow cover.  Let's lock this one in!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

ANDREW IS ON BOARD! 

To an extent. I am rooting for a drier cold solution. Though at face value what the EURO shows would be historic. So I would take it.