Tom Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Dreaming of a White Christmas???? Not sure how many of you have been going to bed and praying to the Snow Gods or writing Santa letters, but Mother Nature is painting a nasty set up for our region come Christmas Eve. The 12z Euro Ensembles/Control are in and they take the main energy almost due north from the Gulf into the lower lakes. Today's Euro Ensembles & Control take a very similar path right into S/C MI. Some of the Euro Ensembles are now painting some huge totals near the Lakes. Lot's of time to figure out track/precip/snowfall amounts etc. Let's discuss this storm potential. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'd say almost about 35% of the Euro ensembles are showing a snow streak from S IL or near AR due north towards Lake Superior. A very big jump needless to say and a sign of possible future runs showing a better phase earlier for this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 So much time to go with this thing, I wouldn't be surprised to see the trough 300 miles back west or further east. Will be fun to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'd say almost about 35% of the Euro ensembles are showing a snow streak from S IL or near AR due north towards Lake Superior. A very big jump needless to say and a sign of possible future runs showing a better phase earlier for this system.Way earlier for imby post but do they throw snow back this far west? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Way earlier for imby post but do they throw snow back this far west?Yippers.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 just fast forward a week and we will take E17 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yippers.... is the gfs similar? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 You guys may think I'm crazy lol, but I don't care if I even get any accumulating snow out of this thing. From a Meteorological standpoint how often do you see a 965 mb low in December or ever for that matter in the US? The wind field with this thing being modeled is just amazing and how it all seems to be coming together is beautiful imo. Snow would just be a small added bonus for me. A lot can change, but I'm very excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 ...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ANDAND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPERLEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACELOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVERTHE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLDFRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILLCHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. (cle's afd...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 is the gfs similar?Further east Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 enjoy guys to the east. it's going to be fun for you to watch. at least we won't have to worry about travel here in Nebraska and I'm happy for that as I do have a lot of traveling on Christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 NWS Duluth NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILLMOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THENSTALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THENORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERNIS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THEWESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERNPLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPEROVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKEHURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTHHAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT INSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THEEASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THENORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THISSYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWOVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELSHAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FARWESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEKCOLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILLQUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ONRUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THENORTHLAND. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 NWS MKE .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGHTHE AREA THAT COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAYAFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVEWEAKER AND TO OUR NORTHWEST.A STRONG UPPER JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE INTO THECENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO SETUP OVER THE MIDWEST FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGHWILL HELP TO DRAW WARMER AIR AND ALSO MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI BYEARLY NEXT WEEK.THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPNORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ISQUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WILL END UP BEING A MIX. IT WILLLIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER TO RAINESPECIALLY NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH TUESDAY.COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANYLINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A WHITECHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THEUPPER MIDWEST WILL TAP INTO ENERGY FROM AN UPPER JET OVER THESOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING NORTHWESTTOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW ANDSTRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMASEVE.THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7-8. OFCOURSE... THE FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILLWAVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST DETAILSAS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 NWS GRB .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAYISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN ITAPPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERNTHIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKFOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THEREGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEARTO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRSTLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAYINTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAINACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MBTROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKEHURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEASTSEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONGWITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANTTRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOTPUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUTCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONINGIT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGEAMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILLNOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 From LOT THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUNVARIABILITY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT LIFTS ACROSSTHE MIDWEST MIDWEEK...WITH COMPLICATIONS AS THE MODELS DEAL WITHPHASING THE SOUTHERN LOW WITH A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. WILLCERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 18z GFS much farther north/stronger with the northern stream. Probably will end up pretty meh for Christmas eve, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 18z GFS will be way east while 18z GFS par. should be west of it's 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 970 L in PA on the 18z GFS. Ends up 958 in NY It's all about the northern stream. Need it to dig. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 To summarize:- Model guidance is beginning to sniff out a very strong storm system impacting most of the Central and East US on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.- This would severely impact travel.- Snow would be confined primarily to the north-central Great Lakes into Canada.- Very high uncertainty still exists. (and he also has said this storm is borderline for bombogenesis) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 We all knew this storm was going to bounce around from run to run but boy what a shift on the GFS. At least it still has a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 To summarize: - Model guidance is beginning to sniff out a very strong storm system impacting most of the Central and East US on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.- This would severely impact travel.- Snow would be confined primarily to the north-central Great Lakes into Canada.- Very high uncertainty still exists. (and he also has said this storm is borderline for bombogenesis)Who is "He"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Who is "He"?it's andrew at the weather centre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 the two pieces of energy one to the north and one to the south has combined to one that has negatively tiltedhe also has stated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Dreaming of a White Christmas???? Not sure how many of you have been going to bed and praying to the Snow Gods or writing Santa letters, but Mother Nature is painting a nasty set up for our region come Christmas Eve. The 12z Euro Ensembles/Control are in and they take the main energy almost due north from the Gulf into the lower lakes. Today's Euro Ensembles & Control take a very similar path right into S/C MI. Some of the Euro Ensembles are now painting some huge totals near the Lakes. Lot's of time to figure out track/precip/snowfall amounts etc. Let's discuss this storm potential.This will clobber my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 My local weatherman just said that next weeks storm needs to be watched because it could produce massive problems for people traveling. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 I wonder if SEMI will get that "B" word in the forecast next week. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wow, this could be one of those storms you get once every 100 years. Someone is going to get clobbered! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 PLEASE BE THE B WORD FOR SEMI!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 I was watching my local Fox station this morning and they said the chance of a white Christmas are almost zero. Turned on Tmj4 this evening and they said a white Christmas is looking more and more likely. There is something big heading for the GLR. It's just a matter of time to see where exactly and how big it's going to be. All I can say is I'm happy that I'm not in the bullseye this far out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 18z GFS ensembles: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f162.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would love to see this storm go negative tilt a little earlier and tap into that low level jet to feed that GOM and Atlantic Moisture back into the cold sector. Hopefully we see more signs of this potential on tonights 00z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would love to see this storm go negative tilt a little earlier and tap into that low level jet to feed that GOM and Atlantic Moisture back into the cold sector. Hopefully we see more signs of this potential on tonights 00z runs.Agreed. Unfortunately, Nebraska is sitting with miracle status for our state to get hit by this storm. However, I am heading up to SE MN for winter break tomorrow, and are liking my chances there much better. Hopefully Nebraska still gets in on the action, I'll be pulling for you guys. As gabel stated, everyone is still in the game at this point. I just want a storm, idc if Chicago gets it, SEMI gets it, just a storm to track. I'm sick of these fantasy land storms fizzling out, and I'd love to start off tracking a real monster system like they're showing now within 144 hrs. Hoping the trend stays put! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would love to see this storm go negative tilt a little earlier and tap into that low level jet to feed that GOM and Atlantic Moisture back into the cold sector. Hopefully we see more signs of this potential on tonights 00z runs. Some of those GFS ensembles look nice in terms of cold sector qpf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 We all knew this storm was going to bounce around from run to run but boy what a shift on the GFS. At least it still has a storm.Only thing you have to worry about my friend. Track at this point is obviously going to be all over the place and will continue to be for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 WPC: http://i.imgur.com/sFjAOy3.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Really hoping this thing gets its act together sooner than what models are showing. Everything is off to my east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 DMX saying a westward shift happens a lot with models and winter storms and is throwing that possiblility into this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 UKIE http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Change from it's 12z run and keeping the northern stream much farther north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GGEM has the northern stream wayy north in Canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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