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January 2015 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Geos
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That is one massive West Coast ridge on the 8th! Can clearly see where the air is coming from for our area.   Took these snow pictures today within a radius of 10 miles. 10° and falling out there righ

Tom
Tom

This type of cold after a warm December is going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people.  Can't wait to see Lake Michigan steaming like a hot cup of tea!

Tom
Tom

Fantastic comeback victory!  I went to this bar down the street from the UC called "West End".  It's the official Hawks bar.  The atmosphere was awesome.  This team never gives up that's for sure and

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The LRC is cycling through towards the end of the coldest part of the LRC and the "warm" phase will be coming through late next week.  Now, depending on your location, if your farther south in the Plains or west you may experience temps much above freezing compared to those in the north where they have a snow cover.  I don't expect to see a long lasting "pullback" but prob in the range of 3-5 days as this pattern will be transient as the cold reloads.  Here is what I'm seeing.

 

Take a look at the 12z Euro run on Jan 4th for the period on 00z 15th and you will see a ridge building into Canada at 500mb and signs of a stormy pattern in the SE CONUS.  Now, last nights run for the same period is shrinking the intensity of the ridge building in Canada and the model is responding to lower 850's comparatively speaking to the run 2 days ago and growing aspects of a stormy pattern in the SE (corresponding to the +PNA that will be developing during this period).  Notice the "warmth" shrinking in W CA and cold building in NE CA (PV).

 

When we transition through this period, the Pacific jet will start slamming into Cali and juicy storm systems will begin to enter the pattern Week 2 and will result into a stormy pattern in the Central CONUS.  Finally, I'm going to post the Day 16 500mb pattern and you can see that the model may be "seeing" the ridge "connect" back up over the top near Alaska and coincidentally this is when last week's JMA Weeklies saw the NW NAMER ridge for Week 3 & 4 which would be the last 2 weeks of January connect.  This weeks runs should be interesting if they continue to show the NW NAMER ridge.

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Tom Grand Master

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During the last few days of November and open week of December I busted bad on the predicted "blocking" that I thought would develop for the month of December.  Back in October we saw a lot of blocking and utilizing the LRC I thought it would cycle back trough, but it didn't.  This time, I've learned from my mistakes and I can see the evolution of that part of the LRC to cycle back through again with Blocking during the later parts of January.

 

Notice the explosive warming at 30mb in the upper latitudes: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

Back in December we had a SSW event but it focused more in Eurasia and that is where most of the PV stayed for the month of December.  Now, things are changing this time around.  This SSW I believe will promote the Alaskan ridge to build in and stick around.  I'll be very surprised if the JMA Weeklies this week don't have the NW NAMER ridge as they did last week.  As we head deeper into Winter, the jet strengthens  and reaches it's peak in late January/early February and I would not be surprised at all if nature can spin up some powerhouse storms.  This is a very interesting pattern ahead and should fire up this forum again.

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dubuque473 Newbie

dubuque473

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Plenty of moisture this winter just needed more cold! All that rain frankly sucked. Hopefully we can get a nice run of snow going soon....

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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Scott26 Newbie

Scott26

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I don't know how low the temps will go, LOT AFD hinted towards a bit of uncertainty with it. Looks like the temps are dropping a bit now down from 10 to 7.

Is school canceled for you? Tons of schools are canceled by me, but nothing from my school yet.

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Tom Grand Master

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ORD dropped to -5F last night...2 days ago models were forecasting overnight temps to be above 0 so clearly the arctic origin of this airmass was to warm on the modeling.  ORD's grid forecast has it going sub-zero tonight, high temp of -4F for tomorrow, sub-zero tomorrow night (NWS is forecasting -9F) I think it will get lower than that.  Let's see how many hours ORD can stay sub-zero.  Last year I think it was 34 hours straight sub-zero.  We may come close during this streak.

 

I don't think this will be the coldest stretch of this season.  What is coming down the road in February when this pattern cycles through looks much worse than this arctic attack.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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Schools are all cancelled here tomorrow in Omaha and the surrounding suburbs due to the cold. My wife is a teacher so she gets a day off. Lucky her! The next 4 days really are depressing- horrible subzero cold and dangerous windchills and for the next week no snow.

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Tom Grand Master

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12z Euro Ensembles continue to show the transient pattern after late next weeks brief "pull back".  Notice the 850's getting colder as we get closer to Jan 15th and by Day 15 now the Ensembles showing the ridge hook back up over the top near Alaska.  I like the look of the jet hitting Cali for a period of time that can bring some systems across the Rockies.  

 

For those MJO worshipers, Euro now saying we are heading towards the "death spiral"...btw, we are supposed to be blow torch warm in Phase 5 & 6 right now.  Instead, we are seeing the coldest air of the season.  Way to many variables this season to consider one forecasting tool is better than the other.

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The Snowman Collaborator

The Snowman

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12z Euro Ensembles continue to show the transient pattern after late next weeks brief "pull back".  Notice the 850's getting colder as we get closer to Jan 15th and by Day 15 now the Ensembles showing the ridge hook back up over the top near Alaska.  I like the look of the jet hitting Cali for a period of time that can bring some systems across the Rockies.  

 

For those MJO worshipers, Euro now saying we are heading towards the "death spiral"...btw, we are supposed to be blow torch warm in Phase 5 & 6 right now.  Instead, we are seeing the coldest air of the season.  Way to many variables this season to consider one forecasting tool is better than the other.

The COD indication is the result of our current wave weakening and a second wave forming:

 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdet/7.5S_7.5N/2015.png

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Tom Grand Master

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The COD indication is the result of our current wave weakening and a second wave forming:

 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdet/7.5S_7.5N/2015.png

Second wave can form and become a no-show for warmth down the road...maybe just another brief pull back like we will encompass later this month.

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6789 Newbie

6789

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Lol my school is not cancelled either! I think every single one that I know of is off :( I think if schools close tomorrow they will undoubtedly close for Thursday as well. Especially if the warning lasts till 12. Scott I feel you pain.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Roads were an absolute mess this morning and most still are. Plenty of black ice and packed on snow on most roads tonight. Wind is blowing the snow around a little bit also.

 

High of 11° today, which was an improvement over yesterday! I think there is some schools closed near here in IL, but in Wisconsin I don't think so.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Little bit of snow showing up for Thursday and into Friday.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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Not that it matters for me anymore, but all the schools around here cancelled.

 

Went snowboarding from 1:30-9 today. Getting back into it. Used be a season pass type in junior high, stopped in high school, and getting back into it now. Went down the bunny hill and thought it may take a while to relearn everything, but then went straight to a main hill and all of a sudden it clicked and I remembered it all. Heck, I think I may be better than I used to be. Which makes sense given more physical maturity. But what a fun day it was. Only fell twice, no lines, and was able to keep myself warm a majority of the time.

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Tom Grand Master

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Not that it matters for me anymore, but all the schools around here cancelled.

 

Went snowboarding from 1:30-9 today. Getting back into it. Used be a season pass type in junior high, stopped in high school, and getting back into it now. Went down the bunny hill and thought it may take a while to relearn everything, but then went straight to a main hill and all of a sudden it clicked and I remembered it all. Heck, I think I may be better than I used to be. Which makes sense given more physical maturity. But what a fun day it was. Only fell twice, no lines, and was able to keep myself warm a majority of the time.

Did you go to Chestnut mountain???

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Tom Grand Master

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Yup!!

Nice, I like that place...not a bad spot to go to...the view of the Mississippi is kinda neat from the top.  Lot's of ppl I know from Chicago go there on the weekends.  Should be a nice weekend to go skiing with temps in the 20's and that fresh snow that fell yesterday.

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Maxim Newbie

Maxim

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the way the snowman has said that by mid month we will have warmth then back to winter to close out jan open feb and by mid next month on we will be warm by that time so that means that winter has one last punch and with the lack of the ssw so that means that the ao is positve also.

?

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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Nice, I like that place...not a bad spot to go to...the view of the Mississippi is kinda neat from the top. Lot's of ppl I know from Chicago go there on the weekends. Should be a nice weekend to go skiing with temps in the 20's and that fresh snow that fell yesterday.

Love it. The view is great, I'm a big fan of the hills as well. And the terrain park is nice. But it can get really busy with all the tourists and then local people. Back when I had a season pass, I actually had it for Sundown Resort in Dubuque. Nice, but nothing like Chesnut. I am actually taking a ski/snowboard class for college on friday nights when I get back, some place called Snowstar. Never heard of it, probably not that great, but somewhere to go and free on Fridays for the class.

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Iowawx Enthusiast

Iowawx

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Still no signs of major storms on the models. Also looks like there is large warmup in the next 8-10 days coming.  Is there something on the LRC that we can watch for? Season total here is only 12.0 and hoping that it can end up being 3 or 4 possibly more times than that. Last years 50 inch  season total for 2013-2014 was solid. 

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Tom Grand Master

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00z GGEM still kicking out a snow storm for Mon-Wed period...signs of the Pre-Thanksgiving storm????  It'll probably end up being an east coast storm with a +PNA but may nudge just far enough north to give some folks on this forum some snow.

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Tom Grand Master

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00z GGEM brings down another arctic shot next Wed/Thu and keeps the trough positioned over the Lakes through the extended.  Might be over done, but if that system next week can phase then I could see this happening and the trough digging in the East especially if the PNA stays positive and AO/NAO head towards neutral.

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