January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

Typhoon Rule shows a trough (although weak) moving through in 2 days, followed by another weak trough. This correlates to a western trough ~26th and the ~28th. May not account for much, but gives the Euro some credibility 

[Phil]

-

.. I'd continued, with .."strong correlation". Add to this, .. where looking at and "considering" the "frequency" of each. / Both. .Be any of this as it may, your initial statement (suggestion. ?) above,"worked" to convey, very .. little. To me, certainly. @

 

.. Hence my initial comment.

 

— With all of the "clarity" that you've provided since, my comment more at this point would be, more, ....

 

....... "Very.", .. "high". (evidently.)

 

 

.. And to this above, .... "Apparently.".

 

— Appreciated your Time. (As it were.)

 

Solar Cycle Variation of High-Degree Acoustic Mode Frequencies

www.nso.edu/sites/www.nso.edu/files/u38/.../sct_nso50_high.pdf‎

We observe that the high-degree mode frequencies have a solar cycle ... averaged frequency shifts are linearly correlated with routinely measured solar activity.

Thanks.

 

True, though correlation strength can vary w/ various modes of interference (think QBO, ENSO, etc). Definitely in agreement w/ that paper, btw. Nice read.

 

Here's a good paper elaborating on the Solar/QBO dynamic interplay on the terrestrial circulations and mass transport at/below the tropopause..this is what is responsible for the PDO response: http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-019-675.pdf

[richard mann]

Edit: .. Warning. Don't bother. Skip ahead.
 

.. Enjoy. Omitted, from my post above since. With the citation included .. in your quotation of it more just above, I'd merely been working to show you that your terminology used more initially, had been extremely—even "very"—"weak", set with what it had been. ....

 

..... As in, if fixed very well in space perhaps, with no explanation more in particular, as to "why". Or either clue, otherwise, as to "what" it might have meant or been referring to. (Oh, Well.)

[Phil]

You've lost me again

[richard mann]

Don't bother. Skip ahead.  (Or perhaps back, to the page previous.) — Utterly, pointless exchange. (.. effort.)

 

"In — $$. ..... "variably." (?)

[Phil]

I'm hitting the sack, gnite

[richard mann]

Typhoon Rule shows a trough (although weak) moving through in 2 days, followed by another weak trough. This correlates to a western trough ~26th and the ~28th. May not account for much, but gives the Euro some credibility

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I suppose. I can think a few times it finally delivered after I gave up.

What did you give up? Just take the punches as they come. Tell you what. When I get my little cabin finished I will let you go stay there for a weekend that looks cold as hell. And I am serious. You need it.

[Front Ranger]

Is that your prediction?

  

Nah, was just saying it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Not everything has to be a prediction, you know

[Front Ranger]

Okay. I'll be sure to file that one into my system....

 

More specifically, there was a lot less data for the Pacific in general prior to WWII. For obvious reasons, that changed.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 6z GFS follows a similar progression to the 0z pointing to an exit of the Aleutian low around Jan 27th, if we're looking to our next window for cold/snow the week that follows would be prime time.

 

Edit: so far on the 12z prospects for another significant inversion (at least from WA-north) any time soon are looking a lot less likely:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011612/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_28.png

[Tyler Mode]

I ended with 0.70" for the last two days.  I see a lot of clearing to the NW of me.

 

I forgot to mention yesterday morning, the skies were clear, then a heavy shower moved through and the temp was 30.  Haven't seen it rain that hard at 30 degrees before.  Of course it quickly warmed up and the ice melted.

[Timmy]

Portland and South Vancouver this morning, I should get a nice camera, this picture doesn't do it justice. could have been on a calendar.

 

[Timmy]

Sorry for the finger on the lens. Minus that, this was the best picture I think.

[BLI snowman]

More specifically, there was a lot less data for the Pacific in general prior to WWII. For obvious reasons, that changed.

 

Good point. October 1936 clearly was not +PDO.

[BLI snowman]

12z alert!

[Timmy]

12z alert!

cold trough!  thought I would get through the winter without seeing one of those.

[Timmy]

While this doesn't look terrible, the slightest shift east would make it poop, and we will end up getting pooped on cold dry air with no moisture.  looks similar to the last few cold waves this winter.  its a start I suppose.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011612/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

[Phil]

That's a short sample size. Here's a longer one (red is sunspot #, green is PDO):

 

http://s9.postimg.org/9plirndm7/ssn_pdo_normalise.png

Correct, but that's not the relationship I was looking at..I'm looking at the short term Hadley Cell/NAM effect on the PDO on a multi-month timescale. Longer term, the relationship is very different, with the a -PDO favored during the ascent/peak of the solar forcing, with a +PDO favored during the descent in solar forcing, for other reasons that we can discuss if you'd like.

 

I mentioned this last night..this is why I wanted to highlight the "high frequency" aspect of this:

 

 

That was meant to convey the fact that solar forcing can affect the PDO very quickly (under the right conditions)..aka a "high frequency" relationship.

 

There is also a lower frequency relationship between the two, which in involves ENSO/global resonance(s), but that's another topic for another day.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF... we now have something to track!

[luvssnow_spokane]

In non-weather news...

The Packers realize they are playing the Seahawks.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Portland and South Vancouver this morning, I should get a nice camera, this picture doesn't do it justice. could have been on a calendar.

IMG_1333.JPG

An iPhone6 would work too. Specially if you play with the setting or use an app. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS nice improvement... ECMWF pretty decent, not as superb as 00z last night. 12z GEM getting there appears after day 10 it turns favorable.... Nice to see. Let's keep this going because inversions make me want to punch a baby in the face, and no one should be punching babies in the face. It's just wrong.

 

This isn't too bad either

12z GFS 8-14 day Composite 500mb height anomalies

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

AS already shared things are looking interesting again... 12z GFS 850mb - Day 10. (Progression begins and can be seen around day 8). 

 

 

[MossMan]

Latest PNA signal is not looking too shabby, I like that one deep member!

[Phil]

I'm starting to worry about the GFS upgrade..seems to have a +NAM bias in the longer ranges.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm starting to worry about the GFS upgrade..seems to have a +NAM bias in the longer ranges.

 

Biased in showing east coast cold possibly. 

[Phil]

Biased in showing east coast cold possibly.

Jury is still out on that (east coast cold has been verifying). But it's been way off over the AO domain..

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm starting to worry about the GFS upgrade..seems to have a +NAM bias in the longer ranges.

Could you clarify in what way?  I am curious what bias you are seeing?

[Tyler Mode]

53 sunny degrees here on January 16th.  Washed and waxed the car, despite the coming rain. 

 

It's like spring outside.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm starting to worry about the GFS upgrade..seems to have a +NAM bias in the longer ranges.

I would think someone like you would give it more than just 2 days to develop trends before being worried about biases.

[richard mann]

Thanks for the warnings Richard.

 

Also, and again, if you feel like you are getting trolled, report it, pm a mod or me, don't respond to it and try calling them out. You look like an a** when you do.

 

The best I could do with the idea. I'd certainly thought to but didn't, delete my portion of the exchange:  with my having figured that the whole of it had been worth general "review".

 

And more essentially here, to be more clear perhaps, if certainly somewhat annoying—more where considering the more general futility element having resulted, .. In point of fact I don't feel (hadn't felt.) that ".. Phil", had been doing what he had been more intentionally. But just more blindly. This basically, with my having worked more initially, to have tried to point to the more simple idea that what he'd posted (more truncated, then in "equation" form.?), had been "highly" ambiguous. And with his otherwise evidently not having recognized this potential, his apparently (even somewhat evidently.) not having stopped to think (well enough.) [just] why, I might have been saying what I had more initially.  Fairly plainly I had thought. 

 

Add to this more only, .. For a fact, I still don't know what he'd meant with what he'd tacked in above the chart that he'd posted. 

[epiceast]

12Z ECMWF... we now have something to track!

It was there on last nights 00z

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
Next up....
00z GFS 3 hours 24 minutes
00z GEM 4 hours 44 minutes
00z ECMWF 5 hours 54 minutes
What will we see? A good set of runs? Arctic cold/snow? Dry/cold? Wet? Fog ridge? I have no idea, as usual.

[richard mann]

Correct, but ....

 

..this is why I wanted to highlight the "high frequency" aspect of this:

Hold. Wait. ... "Warning", whatever suits here.

 

So let me get this straight (And with emphasis here, "what the hell" [?]. Not much else going on.), …

 

— With Chris having brought in the broader perspective that he has above, of what you'd pointed to tacked in "last night"—that I'd commented with respect to—If more where considering your used of the term "frequency", or "high frequency", ... I'll just route to Chris's version real quick here. 

 

http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=63754

 

... With my having worked to extend you the courtesy of "form" where having commented regarding my confusion with your having elected to used this term to point to what you had (Or perhaps better had hoped to have.), .. this, is what you'd had in mind. ? (!!)

 

— A (And please take care, to note the care, that I've taken here following to describe the idea.), 

 

$ … fairly confined., certainly relatively, incidence / co-incidence (even.) of "over-lapping", of and where looking at recorded "PDO" plus or minus ratings, where set with and against …. whatever it is actually being pointed to plotted with this chart even, more "Solar" focused above. — (As with the "shorter" span, version that you'd submitted tack in to your post previous, the main values more "Solar" focused also not having been identified with the broader ranging version that Chris has posted today.)

 

@ .. With this "new light" shed on what you'd had in mind apparently, you may just want to ponder the phrase, "reductive deduction". Even "... thinking, submitted".  I would say even more "inductive", promotion of an idea, given what Chris has pointed to. .. Part of a "picture's", having been .. "highlighted".

 

And if not clear here, then otherwise perhaps, .. one (Or some.), way too, … "inside [of] the box".  ($)

 

… "the courtesy of form", may also be an idea worth some pondering, for you also, too .. (If I may, in light of this "general", "kerfuffle". / .. more muddied effort of yours to have tried to enlighten others.)

[Phil]

I would think someone like you would give it more than just 2 days to develop trends before being worried about biases.

It's been running parallel to the old GFS for months.

 

You knew that, too.

[Front Ranger]

12z ensembles are not nearly as promising as the operational Euro the past couple runs...ridging is too far east. But, things definitely look better than a couple days ago.

 

In the long range, the GFS ensembles continue to have a strong signal for Aleutian ridging.

[Jesse]

52/36 out here today. Hella springlike.

 

Yesterday was 39/35.

[snow_wizard]

I'm sure liking the ECMWF the last couple of runs and the 12z GFS was pretty decent.  We shall see.

[snow_wizard]

What did you give up? Just take the punches as they come. Tell you what. When I get my little cabin finished I will let you go stay there for a weekend that looks cold as hell. And I am serious. You need it.

 

That's a nice offer.  I might have to take you up on it sometime.  The truth is I am just tired of it here.  I just don't want to waste the energy getting worked up about it anymore.