January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The new ECMWF isn't terrible by any means. The GFS and Canadian ensembles still look pretty bad though.

[ShawniganLake]

The new ECMWF isn't terrible by any means.

How about days 1-9 though?

[westiztehbest]

On the positive side...the JMA is showing that we'll be headed back down to neutral territory.  From Joe Bastardi's twitter today:

 

 

[snow_wizard]

On the positive side...the JMA is showing that we'll be headed back down to neutral territory.  From Joe Bastardi's twitter today:

 

 

The CFS has improved dramatically also. Perhaps we will be neutral next winter and maybe even on the cold side of the line, but I'm not convinced yet.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 6z GFS has shows only about 6 hours or so out of 384 hours where we aren't under a positive 500mb height anomaly; a continuing theme this winter. The ensembles show much of the same taking us out to Feb 14.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian at 240 hours... same old thing.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[HighlandExperience]

12Z Canadian at 240 hours... same old thing.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

 

 

The year without a winter continues.

[HighlandExperience]

More depressing news for our freinds down in Cali and Oregon.

 

This week we have gotten news that more ski resorts are suspending operations due to the unseasonably dry conditions.

 

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/01/more-ski-resorts-close-due-to-lack-of-snow

[Rustysprocket]

More depressing news for our freinds down in Cali and Oregon.

 

This week we have gotten news that more ski resorts are suspending operations due to the unseasonably dry conditions.

 

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/01/more-ski-resorts-close-due-to-lack-of-snow

Pathetic.  No recovey in sight.  One can only hope things change but with the recent and ongoing pattern, it's looking horrible.

[BLI snowman]

Fun winter!!

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=66813

[richard mann]

.. Main and broader cold air mass, is currently receding daily more northward, and has been since the 18th of January.
 
— This while at the same time and if only more since the 20th or so, slowing its main and more predominately movement and pace east.  @
 
.. In my estimation, this will "change" on the 31st: .. with more primary cold's from the north, beginning to move and spread daily more southward; this while at the same time where looked at more longitudinally, colder air's looked at more as a whole, being caused to step up its movement and pace more eastward.

[richard mann]

.. Note if more incidental here regarding my post, even two, submitted just above.

 

... No guarantee where looking at the current, certainly somewhat dismal winter that we've been seeing to this point, leastwise. But my response to the idea more, that there is no hope for recovery in sight. 

[pscz1140]

Went on a great bike ride in the sun today to the Ballard Locks.

 

3 feet of snow would be nice, but I'm enjoying some lemons for now.

[snow_wizard]

I'm throwing in the towel on this winter today. I can tell it's over when my frustration and anger give way to a dull sense of depression. When that happens it's usually over.

[Canadian guy]

The last 3 winters in a row have been brutal up here in Victoria for snowfall. 

 

2012/13 - no snow and no high temps below freezing

2013/14 - 1-2 inches of snowfall and about 5 high temps below freezing (higher elevations got more)

2014/15 - a trace in November and 1 high temp below freezing

 

Basically 2 out 3 winters with no snowfall.  I have been living here since 1989 and this is the worst 3 year stretch.  Even 1999 - 2002 wasn't as bad as this.

[bainbridgekid]

Went on a great bike ride in the sun today to the Ballard Locks.

 

3 feet of snow would be nice, but I'm enjoying some lemons for now.

I'm enjoying lemonade.

[richard mann]

This place is like a tomb this evening. Not surprising.

[TT-SEA]

I'm throwing in the towel on this winter today. I can tell it's over when my frustration and anger give way to a dull sense of depression. When that happens it's usually over.

Hard to be depressed on such a gorgeous day like this one... and so many others this winter. I will save that for May and June when its gloomy and wet.

[richard mann]

".. as".

 

.. More just plain dejected, instead maybe perhaps then, huh Tim. ?

(hm, hmm. B-Bar_tQued. Chicken. ith potato-salad. — "Ruffles", with "ridges." ? Slice-a-Icecream.)

 

— And, I think you may have left out one idea where considering your thinking here. 

 

.... Work with what you got. 

[richard mann]

.. fresh today.
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.29.2015.gif

— Still plenty of moisuture generation. Both Southwest and more immediate.

[richard mann]

http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

[richard mann]

.. nother Beer. ?

[Front Ranger]

The last 3 winters in a row have been brutal up here in Victoria for snowfall. 

 

2012/13 - no snow and no high temps below freezing

2013/14 - 1-2 inches of snowfall and about 5 high temps below freezing (higher elevations got more)

2014/15 - a trace in November and 1 high temp below freezing

 

Basically 2 out 3 winters with no snowfall.  I have been living here since 1989 and this is the worst 3 year stretch.  Even 1999 - 2002 wasn't as bad as this.

 

Too early to sum up this winter. Many significant snowfall events have happened in Feb/Mar, especially up your way.

 

0z GFS is much further west with cold air sliding south early next week than the runs this morning. At this point, all it means for the PNW is cooler temps and some mountain snow (if it verifies), but still nice to see.

[Front Ranger]

0z also has a pretty juicy system for later next week. Considerably more active than other recent GFS runs.

[snow_wizard]

The last 3 winters in a row have been brutal up here in Victoria for snowfall. 

 

2012/13 - no snow and no high temps below freezing

2013/14 - 1-2 inches of snowfall and about 5 high temps below freezing (higher elevations got more)

2014/15 - a trace in November and 1 high temp below freezing

 

Basically 2 out 3 winters with no snowfall.  I have been living here since 1989 and this is the worst 3 year stretch.  Even 1999 - 2002 wasn't as bad as this.

I guess I should feel lucky with my whopping 5.3 inches over the past 3 winters then.

[snow_wizard]

0z also has a pretty juicy system for later next week. Considerably more active than other recent GFS runs.

It's the same old pattern. It goes right back to the default NE Pacific trough.

[snow_wizard]

.. Note if more incidental here regarding my post, even two, submitted just above.

 

... No guarantee where looking at the current, certainly somewhat dismal winter that we've been seeing to this point, leastwise. But my response to the idea more, that there is no hope for recovery in sight.

The trough that has dominated the NE Pacific just sits there like a lead ball and forces a ridge right along the West Coast. A tremendously frustrating pattern.

[Front Ranger]

It's the same old pattern. It goes right back to the default NE Pacific trough.

 

It's too far out to say how the pattern will evolve, but there are actually some pretty big large scale pattern differences from run to run. In the short term, mid term, and long term.

 

When we're seeing significant differences within 100 hours, I don't see the point in worrying too much about 200+ hours.

[Rustysprocket]

Too early to sum up this winter. Many significant snowfall events have happened in Feb/Mar, especially up your way.

 

0z GFS is much further west with cold air sliding south early next week than the runs this morning. At this point, all it means for the PNW is cooler temps and some mountain snow (if it verifies), but still nice to see.

 

 

Mountain snow is what we need. I'm over waiting for it in the lowlands.

[BLI snowman]

It's too far out to say how the pattern will evolve, but there are actually some pretty big large scale pattern differences from run to run. In the short term, mid term, and long term.

 

When we're seeing significant differences within 100 hours, I don't see the point in worrying too much about 200+ hours.

 

February 2015 = All Quiet on the Western Front 

[snow_wizard]

Mountain snow is what we need. I'm over waiting for it in the lowlands.

How about anything other than the ugly pattern we have been in? Anything that involves above normal heights over the GOA would be just fine with me.

[snow_wizard]

February 2015 = All Quiet on the Western Front

Yeah...I would be shocked if anything worthwhile happens in Feb.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah...I would be shocked if anything worthwhile happens in Feb.

 

I share your skepticism. This winter has now surpassed last season in terms of major suckage. We are now on par with the dreaded 04-05 season in terms of mountain snowfall. Not sure it can really get worse than this. I suppose we could start growing some big palm trees and call ourselves San Diego. 

 

Many of my friends who don't ski, or have no interest in weather are asking when winter will start. Sure feels like we have been stuck in late Summer/Fall.

[snow_wizard]

I share your skepticism. This winter has now surpassed last season in terms of major suckage. We are now on par with the dreaded 04-05 season in terms of mountain snowfall. Not sure it can really get worse than this. I suppose we could start growing some big palm trees and call ourselves San Diego. 

 

Many of my friends who don't ski, or have no interest in weather are asking when winter will start. Sure feels like we have been stuck in late Summer/Fall.

Well...the average low here has been 36.9 so far this month so I don't know about summer, but it has sucked big time. 2005-06 was a better winter than this.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I share your skepticism. This winter has now surpassed last season in terms of major suckage. We are now on par with the dreaded 04-05 season in terms of mountain snowfall. Not sure it can really get worse than this. I suppose we could start growing some big palm trees and call ourselves San Diego. 

 

Many of my friends who don't ski, or have no interest in weather are asking when winter will start. Sure feels like we have been stuck in late Summer/Fall.

 

Far worse than 04/05 up here, there must have been a sharp gradient on that one because even the Vancouver Island lowlands saw several feet of snow that January, though the second half of the month was a torch I don't recall the mountains being as bare as they are now.

[snow_wizard]

Another amazing thing about this season is how warm the clear nights have been outside of the ones with the continental air masses in place. 37 degrees here on a clear calm night at 10pm in late January is awful.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The last 3 winters in a row have been brutal up here in Victoria for snowfall. 

 

2012/13 - no snow and no high temps below freezing

2013/14 - 1-2 inches of snowfall and about 5 high temps below freezing (higher elevations got more)

2014/15 - a trace in November and 1 high temp below freezing

 

Basically 2 out 3 winters with no snowfall.  I have been living here since 1989 and this is the worst 3 year stretch.  Even 1999 - 2002 wasn't as bad as this.

 

This has been a historically poor stretch for snowfalls in Victoria. Coupled with the fact that the city only got about 6" in the 2011/2012 season we're now running at 4 years with well below average snowfalls.

[richard mann]

The trough that has dominated the NE Pacific just sits there like a lead ball and forces a ridge right along the West Coast. A tremendously frustrating pattern.

 

... According the models. (And it "may".) But basically, I'm not living in that future. As I'm expecting a, or an, if only slightly, different actual circumstance where looking ahead; .. with my feeling that the models haven't picked up what I'm looking at as potentially occurring more specifically, colder air mass movement, even distribution wise, over the next few days—outlined both above, together with also both within my thread initiated "Approaching Pattern Discussion", and that where I've submitted my main projections more cold air mass focused.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah...I would be shocked if anything worthwhile happens in Feb.

 

Well, the Juneau people were saying winter was over less than a week ago, and they just saw a 6" snowstorm.

 

There are some subtle changes in the pattern now that open the door for more interesting and potentially active weather in the near future. Right now things don't look great, but the 0z models took a step in the right direction. All it would take is a little bit stronger and better placed high here, and a further south low pressure system there, and things could get interesting.

 

All I'm saying is, don't get too caught up in how boring this month has been and assume nothing will change.