Tom Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 I know, I know, I know...it's just a Clipper...but as sad as this Winter has been thus far, any snow that falls can put some ppl to work and bring some joy to the kiddos on a Sunday. Models are converging on a Clipper originating near Manitoba/Saskatchewan provinces and swinging SE towards the Lakes. We shall see if this system can be dubbed a "Manitoba Mawhler" or "Saskatchewan Screamer"....would be nice if this system can tap into more colder air and add some lake moisture into the mix. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z CMC shows zippo here, has the low way north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hand to god, I'm glad I'm not dealing with this clipper. I'm so beyond miniscule snow at this point, I'd rather just have 65 and rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hope it verifies! After all, clippers have brought most of our snow over the past couple years. At least in Milwaukee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'll take the 18z NAM please. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z Euro is a little more south in the track and weaker. It seems the NAM/GFS are stronger with this Clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Both maps above show more snow north and lesser amounts south. Guessing this is due to ratios as it will not be your typical cold clipper especially the farther south you go. This so far looks like a fairly intense clipper so will be curious to see if it will continue or will it lose its intensity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Both maps above show more snow north and lesser amounts south. Guessing this is due to ratios as it will not be your typical cold clipper especially the farther south you go. This so far looks like a fairly intense clipper so will be curious to see if it will continue or will it lose its intensity.Back on Halloween this was an intense Clipper and the track was back farther west and south, similar to what the 00z Euro is showing. I think the models won't have a good idea on track until Saturday when it comes onshore. It is still out in the north Pacific. Like you said, models are juicing this Clipper up for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 First call for MBY: DAB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 First call for MBY: DABIf you are purely basing it off an 84hr NAM run then you are correct. If you are in the bulls eye on an 84hr Nam run then it is pure fantasy and fun to look at otherwise anything else on this run is not even worth looking at. (Just my opinion of course ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 You guys might think I'm crazy but I think the best part of this clipper for our area on the western shores of LM will be the high potential for LE snows. The track, the 1030ish mb high to the north, and the long northeast fetch down the entire length of the lake (and maybe lake superior enhancement) could be a very interesting setup for our area. I know LE snows of high intensity rarely come to fruition about these parts but this one for some reason has my interest more so then the system itself. I'm not very well versed in LE snow so I would like to hear others input on this..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 You guys might think I'm crazy but I think the best part of this clipper for our area on the western shores of LM will be the high potential for LE snows. The track, the 1030ish mb high to the north, and the long northeast fetch down the entire length of the lake (and maybe lake superior enhancement) could be a very interesting setup for our area. I know LE snows of high intensity rarely come to fruition about these parts but this one for some reason has my interest more so then the system itself. I'm not very well versed in LE snow so I would like to hear others input on this.....The GFS has been the only model (except maybe the Euro a couple days ago) which show 850's crashing as winds turn down the warm (relatively speaking) lake waters. In this situation, the warm December we have had may actually end up being a bonus for increased chances of LES as we head into February if we can get systems to turn winds off the lake. Check out how much water is 40-42F... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 euro is drier than a popcorn fart. it can struggle in nw flow events but who knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 ^Maybe enough to cover up the grass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Tom what does the 12z euro show ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Tom what does the 12z euro show ? south, not good for wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 12 Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 south, not good for wisconsin not good at all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 My area is in for several inches with this clipper!! Plenty of snowcover currently on the ground. Not bad! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 My area is in for several inches with this clipper!! Plenty of snowcover currently on the ground. Not bad!So far GFS has been consistent giving your area the most snowfall out of this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 So far GFS has been consistent giving your area the most snowfall out of this...That looks sweet. That's 6"+ snowfall for my area. Bitter cold follows afterwards. My local weatherman just said to get out those shovels. He also mentioned that some spots could exceed half a foot under some intense banding. Also, he said there is a chance for more snow by Thursday of next week. We will see what happens. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 That looks sweet. That's 6"+ snowfall for my area. Bitter cold follows afterwards. My local weatherman just said to get out those shovels. He also mentioned that some spots could exceed half a foot under some intense banding. Also, he said there is a chance for more snow by Thursday of next week. We will see what happens. On the southern edge of the good stuff again. Like yesterday's 1/2" vs. model maps showing 3-4", I smell another shafting with these marginal temps. These clippers like to hug the thermal boundary. They don't tug the cold air south, they correct north at the last minute to "find" the cold air it seems. Oh well, can't complain since I got my half-footer back on the 9/10th clipper and have had solid snow cover since the 5th. Which is more than a lot to our west have been able to say. Good Luck over there in SEMI. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 On the southern edge of the good stuff again. Like yesterday's 1/2" vs. model maps showing 3-4", I smell another shafting with these marginal temps. These clippers like to hug the thermal boundary. They don't tug the cold air south, they correct north at the last minute to "find" the cold air it seems. Oh well, can't complain since I got my half-footer back on the 9/10th clipper and have had solid snow cover since the 5th. Which is more than a lot to our west have been able to say. Good Luck over there in SEMI. Thanks Jaster220. Yes, compare to those people to our west who cannot even buy a flake, we are D**n lucky to be getting some good clippers our way, even if they are not big storm systems. This month I have done fairly well with snowfall and I'm still adding to my gauge. Did you hear about another potential snowfall for MI next Thursday? My local weatherman said earlier this evening that next week bears watching for more accumulating snowfall. Hopefully in February, we will get a few big ones from down south. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 There are definitely still major differences between the Euro and GFS at 500 mb. The Euro shows more of a closed low by 72 hours, but the GFS still looks a bit more strung out. I do believe that Wisconsin and Michigan is going to get the highest totals from this. The Euro is too weak on QPF like it usually is with these NW flow systems. I think once we get into hi-res model range we will see more pronounced mesoscale banding with possibly a bit over 6 inches in the heaviest hit areas. For the Chicago peeps I think 1-3 inches is a good estimate at this time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not biting on any solution until tomorrow night. If the system digs more, it will end up being south. Weaker wave life the GFS is showing, than NW WI to SE MI will be the focal point. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 00z GFS def took a jog south this run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 GGEM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Total moisture on the GFS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 UKMET http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like the models are trending towards the track of the Euro...would be surprised if anything drastic changes for tonight's run for that model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 00z Euro pretty much stuck with the same track and showing a little more strength. It also tugs more colder air into it for N IL/S WI. Not as robust with precip as GFS/GGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOT says it is going west, so maybe that's good for Iowa? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 00z Euro pretty much stuck with the same track and showing a little more strength. It also tugs more colder air into it for N IL/S WI. Not as robust with precip as GFS/GGEM You sure sugarcoated that run, looks less robust in terms of precip than 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 euro looks like 1-2" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 euro dry as a bone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 the euro has been the best model this year, right? I think this storm looks pretty dry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 You sure sugarcoated that run, looks less robust in terms of precip than 12z.Euro hasn't handled qpf totals all that well with Clippers. Remember what it was showing for the early January clipper 3 days out. Track has stayed consistent though and I like how this Clipper maintains it's strength as it zips on through. Meantime, 06z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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